Forecast: 2025 Margaret River Pro
Western Australia Margaret River Pro
May 17 - May 27
With just 24 hours 'till the waiting period begins, we‘re starting to get a clearer idea what contestants will face at the Margaret River Pro.
No doubt they’re warmed up and have boards dialled in as today marks the fourth straight day of big, clean conditions in the south-west.
First light Friday morning
By tomorrow morning, the system that created the swell will be south of the continent and this will be reflected in the dropping swell and a shift in wind.
Saturday morning will still dawn with 6 foot sets at Mainbreak but the trend will be slowly down all day, to about 4 foot by day’s end. Unlike the southerly quadrant winds we’ve had, the wind will switch towards the north, beginning with a light north-easter - which is offshore - and edging more north as the day goes on, though with no great strength.
Saturday will almost certainly be a competition day.
Sunday will be a repeat of Saturday, albeit with smaller waves. It’s borderline whether the contest will get called on.
On Monday a front will clip the coast shifting winds to the west. Ugly, onshore conditions will prevail but they’ll also mark the beginning of the next passage of swell and it’s impressive.
This weekend, a strong node of the Long Wave Trough will establish itself just north of the Kerguluen Islands, with multiple wind fields orbiting the gyre. The first is broad, well-aimed towards West Oz, yet not overly strong with winds to 40 knots - see image below.
As the node of the LWT develops a broad ramp of south-west wind will take aim at Western Australia
Surfers will see the impacts of this system first thing on Tuesday with surf in the 6 foot range at first light and steadily rising to a solid 8 foot late in the day - possibly even seeing some 10 foot sets. Light easterly quadrant winds are expected all day.
That swell/wind combo makes for slam dunk conditions to run the comp. The only decision will be Mainbreak or Box, something we wont speculate on here - but don’t let that stop you below the line.
Wednesday will dawn with the swell coming marginally off the boil, though it should nevertheless be sparkling under a light north-east flow. Sets around 8 feet will persist, the contest should run, however organisers will be keeping a weather eye on the expected arrival of another swell late in the day.
This is where it gets interesting…
The second phase of the Indian Ocean gyre features a cut-off low with a plummeting central pressure. Winds around the low are forecast to reach 70 knots - hurricane force - with significant wave height to 60 feet. It’s a monumental system.
The cut-off low that will create a short-lived peak in XL swell late on Wednesday
All that energy, however, won’t be aimed towards the Australian mainland, instead it’ll head due east and under the continent with only sideband energy hitting Western Australia. Fortunately, the sheer intensity of the storm will ensure there’s accompanying size.
So, how big?
Late Wednesday should see sets to 10 foot with occasionally larger 12 foot sets (the surrounding deep water bommies will be another level up again). The new swell will arrive under a light north, possibly north-east, wind flow.
Wash-throughs at the Box, not big enough for North Point, too big for Mainbreak Rights, a touch of devil wind for Mainbreak Lefts. Whatever decision the WSL goes with the results should be entertaining - provided they run of course.
The swell will likely peak overnight with the XL element on the wane come Thursday morning. Nevertheless, a long tail of winds trailing the cut-off low will ensure swell levels remain high on Thursday. 8-10 foot sets will continue yet light north-east winds in the morning will stengthen and turn towards a north-westerly bias as the day goes on. Conditions will then take a turn for the worse as a period of westerly quadrant wind begins.
Late Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and possibly even Sunday will be lost until the next high moves in and directs winds back towards the south-east.
That takes us to Monday the 26th, the second-last day of the waiting period, when a possible mid-range south-southwest swell is forecast, however that's a long way into the forecast period and conditons will almost certainly change before then.
Keep abreast of those changes in the comment section below.
//STU NETTLE
Comments
Filly’s gonna want to tank in the elim rounds
Hoowee bring on some nice big waves in competition... Ohh yeah
Any thoughts on the boat that was sitting off the Mainbreak left this morning? Was hoping it might be a mobile setup, meaning the Woz could be giving The Box some proper consideration this year.
Edit: Just checked the cam again, it's back out there.
Shark Boat.
Last couple of years they’ve had a ‘shark boat’ out there, it’s probably that
Cheers fellas, got a bit heavy on the wishful thinking there. It's great that the Woz don't skimp out on precautions, and I reckon I recall a boat being present for previous J-Bay events too.
Its the WA Fisheries boat.
Well didn't that forey get an upgrade
Yippee
Once again, paging John John Florence to the contest window .......
XL Margies!! Yowza
Finally the WSL doesn't get skunked with pumping pre-comp and ordinary comp swell. Yew - can't wait. Problem with Fil is that he knocks good surfers who'll charge the big stuff out of the first or so rounds and then tanks
Fil goes fine in big slopey rights like Margs or Sunset. Has won both
Good JBay (not massive though) and small shit Sunset not the real one, and totally tanked at the box.
Gee wouldn't Tuesday at North Point be absolutely cooking !? Nice to see some solid waves and offshores for once regardless
not quite big enough. and devil wind on wednesday. also, shire permits mean the wsl can only shift there in the final few days of the waiting period if there's no possibility to finish the comp at margs. if only they could shift the whole thing a few hundred metres to the south...
Must have been a scenes of elation in Margs Miter 10 carpark this morning, locals gathering to high five and hug, celebrate the opportunity to showcase the Point to the world. To sit back, relax and just enjoy a big offshore swell for once without the obligation to paddle out. Soak in this rare treat!
There will be tears of joy in Mikehunts eye.
(last line sounds like the title to a Seekers song from the '60's now i read it back)
Promising that the box is getting a mention (not for thermalben)
All this has done is confirm that my statement was An Unpopular Opinion.
I'm with you. Heats at the box are boring and it doesn't make sense to chop up the comp across two different kinds of waves just cos. Especially if it can't be a complete round.
But I also like the final five so it seems my opinion is consistently in the minority.
Did you see the last day they held there in 2019?
The day started with Leo Fioravanti being stretchered in with a dislocated shoulder.
Italo's first wave, which was the first wave ridden that day was an outrageous no hands backside pit that almost decapitated him.
Jack Robinson made Filipe Toledo look like he didn''t belong on the world tour.
Kelly Slater was amazing.
Connor Coffin got shacked with a pod of dolphins.
I mean, you may not have liked it, but I can't see how anyone could call it boring.
Yeah fair call. Definitely a lot happening that day and Italo's wave was epic. But it becomes who gets lucky with a makeable wave and the guts to go. The heats don't have as much of the back and forth like main break (and most other CT venues) can offer.
Disagree about the luck- not much luck involved in Jack Robinson's or Kelly Slaters performance.
Inch perfect positioning, wave selection, deep tube-riding chops etc etc.
it's a different skill set and it's far from evenly distributed across elite surfers, in fact, I'd argue nothing separates competitors more.
I'd love to see the new rookies: Al Cleland, Mignot, George Pittar out there to see how they go.
Just one Round!
I'll tolerate one round. If I have to.
"boring"
Hahah
They seem to have made every effort to avoid it in previous years. Average Mainbreak while Nathan Florence and co. have been scoring at the Box.
Unless they've really changed their stripes under the new CEO I reckon they'll only move if there's nothing contestable at Mainbreak.
I think it suits their marketing to have the suggestion of the Box, but they have little appetite for it. Tons of the surfers are probably anti as well. Too sharky and frightening, broken bodies probably aren't a good look and having to run women's heats out there could be carnage. No doubt many of the women have the chops but I'd say a hefty percentage don't. That adds up to boring watching, like Felipe at Pipe and Chopes in days gone by.
I'm excited.
Ben , will any swell from that cut off low make it up to Indo ..?
asking for a friend who is leaving Monday
https://www.swellnet.com/pro/gift
thanks bbbbird are you gifting me a subscription ? , no need mate already on the good team Swellnet , but thanks for the sentiment !
our resident Indo forecaster has gone missing for a couple of weeks so we are looking for a sign from the Indian ocean , something , anything , to get excited about .....
Swell looks promising
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2025/05/18/2000Z/wind/surface/level/orthog...
Nate will possibly post a session, cause he can...& has big reef experience.
"Where are you from....? (answer) Hawaii"
RCal for the mic drop win
FT.
Underdog all the way.
I hear there's been a sudden a run of food poisoning at Margs....
I’m still suss on those winds, I can’t emphasise enough how bad the whole cape to cape region is with Nth in it (apart from a couple of spots.) Hopefully they stay super super light
Yep
Yep. Worst run of winds we’ve had over here for a while. Thinking they’ll run Saturday cause it’s Saturday, Tuesday will be great but then might be holding and hoping for following Sunday/Monday and finishing in smallish Margs.
That’d be unreal, Gra. Hope he can pull it off.
Nice! Predicted nearly 100knot windgusts near the core Monday night at its absolute peak for a coupla hours, pointed straight at the SW.
Tuesday is going to have to be an rdo I think. Can’t wait to see what unfolds.
What’s the bet they don’t run though when the swells at its peak. Bet they call it off.
Shame John John isn’t here for this.
And well done @southernraw I think you called this a while ago didn’t you?
Yeah i did but i've been butchering the current swell! haha. Wasn't paying enough attention to that one, but it's been producing...just a little earlier than i was picking. Thought tomorrow would be epic too but seems might have been off on that call. That big one still looks like it could do any number of things but 100percent, it will be proper big for a good half day or so. Hopefully not night time! Already reshuffling my week too mate. ha
hahaha...the caption!!
Stu
We’re you going to do a piece on who can make the cut etc
So what’s the deal with Jacob Wilcox?
Booted off of the CT
Finished 21st on the CS
Did not compete in Aussie QS
Seems in no man’s land. I don’t think 21st on the CS gives you another automatic crack does it? Or does the fact Al Cleland got a WC to CT allow 21st give Chippo a return ticket to the CS this year?
Dunno but i reckon his no mans land sure beats most other mere mortals! haha
Probably forgot about his competitive obligations with all the mind melting tubes he's been scoring. Poor bastard! Bet he wished he was bouncing around Burleigh wind slop with the rest of the circus last week....or not. Could be that.
such an amazing surf break!
i need to get there before im too old
He won the trials.
Or am I misunderstanding your question?
Confirmed. Won the trials. Along with Willow Hardy.
I just mean where is he heading? One of Australia’s most touted up and comers, more CT wildcards than nearly anyone ever……..the sit around and surf the local whenever will surely end soon if he doesn’t get back on tour?
Interesting watching EE when it's 8foot with proper grunt.
More angling than torque in my opinion.
Maybe saving himself for the comp(?) but whole different story to 5 foot Bells bowl.
Oleary looking good and Italo in champ mode. Likely winner in my opinion. Especially if it gets insanely big.
North Point!
All time conditions in Antarctican (southern, or maybe it's northern) coasts in the coming days with all day straight offshores and a captured fetch 7m plus swell heading straight towards it.
Sorry Stu, I think you're under-calling the size significantly at 10ft Wed arvo.
4.7m swell at around 17-18 seconds is going to be much bigger.
Maybe, it's an impressive system, but the bulk of the energy is heading east, even south-east, so SW WA will only feel the sideband energy. Also, the system has, by degrees, been shunted further east and south over consecutive model runs, which further inhibits the sideband energy (as it forms later in the swell window).
Lastly, and relative to the above point, it's likely the peak will arrive very late on Wednesday - possibly after dark now that the evolution has been delayed.
On the plus side, it's working on an active sea state.
I don't know, 10-12 feet possibly seems a touch small (while noting it'll be 15ft on the nearby bommies).
What size do think we'll be seeing late arvo Wednesday?
Agree totally about the system being shunted south.
There is only a fairly short window of well aimed fetch.
The models differ on how much and how fast it is forced south.
A 3m swell with 17 seconds period is around 10-12 ft
So thinking if the swell hits early enough and is 4.5m wed arvo we should be seeing 15 ft easy.
GFS is predicting 19-20sec period and 4.3m
That is a lot of energy
Is there a site where you can see satellite passes of the actual storm wind intensity?
Pretty much bang on i reckon.
There will be much larger very irregular sets tending more S in direction for a few hours, not sure we'll see them in the cover of darkness though.
Here's the latest ASCAT reading. It's picked up the storm extremely well:
You can keep track of the latest ASCAT info here: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/atmosphere/ascat/ascat_nccf/winds.html
Note, because it's a low orbiting satellite it sometimes misses large patches of Earth.
Back on board, that low is really strong but tight, though the longevity has been increased. 12ft range for me Thursday morning but with those poor NW winds.
PS it's also a 'bombing low' dropping to an incredible 926hPa!
Wow
Nuts!!
Hopefully Box runs Thursday!!
Not with those winds (down your way though..), coming days look much better.
Would they more likely to run at the box Tuesday or Wednesday ? Sounds like they do want to run heats there
I call MB Tuesday and I'm still iffy about the wind Wed arvo so most probably MB Wed as well. Tide is good for box Wed morning though
Perfect conditions for The Right Wed and Thurs.
Hope some good footage comes out
20 to 25 sec period on the right....
That makes me feel ill!
Thick as a 20 story building is high
Those super long period swells can do funny things on those kind of waves from my obs.
Totally agree, to much for box as well IMO
Yep. A whole mass of water moving over a very small area of reef at speed.
Not always ideal.plus steering from outside bathymetry can have an effect....but there's always a surprise variable i haven't seen before so who knows!
From what I've seen reefs need to be very steeply tapered and regular to handle the very long periods. Any funkiness can lead to large sections shutting down. Even with reefs and points they sometimes favor lower periods.
Gee I wonder how that compares to 11 sec burleigh 4 foot? Maybe slightly more powerful.
They are hoping for the box on Wednesday, not tomorrow.
Take it whenever you can get it!
It's quite common on really big swells to close out from the box to main break.
Way too big for box on Wed arvo
I'd say go an rip it up over the next two days. After that ... meh. fwiw. Best on ground up for grabs. Get it u good thing.
haha. Swells jumped!
http://www.srosurf.com/allwabuoy.html
Big sets at Boatramp.
Wish they could run it there. Such a good wave
Looks like Monday will be finals day with an upgrade in the S/SW groundswell and all day offshore winds. South magnets are likely yo be 8-10ft with Margs maybe the 8ft range..
Just for posterity (and as discussed in our forums many times before)...
WA buoy data is not always an accurate representation of surf conditions, or the swell trend. Check the size and trend from Cape Nat yesterday.
'Swell' heights of almost 4m before dawn, easing to ~3m early morning then holding around that range for most of the day, easing to 2.5m today. 'Swell' periods of ~12 seconds.
Except, wave heights built through the day and peaked in the afternoon. Peak swell periods of 14-15 seconds were recorded across a range of Spotter buoys elsewhere throughout the region, which is closer to model guidance.
Yesterday's surf size would suggest much higher Hsig values than ~3m too.
Why is this the case? Because of the way that the raw buoy data is analysed and presented (using non-standard conventions) - the spectral data is truncated at 11 seconds to produce 'swell waves' and 'sea waves'.
Really big sets coming through now.