Early Forecast: Newcastle Surfest
Burton Automotive Newcastle Surfest
June 2nd - 8th
The first contest of the five-contest Challenger Series starts next week. Synoptically, the pattern for Surfest is positive with lots of activity firing up through the southern Tasman Sea for the waiting period, however it’ll be the local winds that dictate conditions with the largest days due to be met with straight southerly winds - and in Newy that means choppy surf.
Over the weekend, a large southerly groundswell will impact the Hunter region, produced by a great Southern Ocean frontal progression pushing up towards New Zealand later this week, from a position south of Tasmania.
The groundswell is due to build through Saturday, peak overnight and then ease slowly Sunday under morning offshores. That's all well and good for weekend warriors and contestants warming up, but come Monday, which is the first day of the waiting period, we’ll be looking at smaller easing 3-4 foot surf under morning offshores, shifting cross-shore into the afternoon.
Tuesday looks smaller again though an inconsistent, reinforcing southerly groundswell should maintain 3 foot sets. Unfortunately, the next approaching frontal system will bring strengthening west-southwest tending south-west winds, creating choppy, deteriorating conditions.
We’re looking at another strong Tasman Low forming off the southern NSW coastline through Wednesday. As it projects north it'll create a large, windy southerly swell that'll build through the day Wednesday, peaking on Thursday.
The swell will peak around 6-8 feet on Wednesday, easing through Thursday from the 6 foot range. However, local winds are the main issue with a strong south-west tending south-southwest breeze on Wednesday, while Thursday comes in cleaner under cross-offshore west-northwest breezes in the morning and weak sea breezes into the afternoon.
Trailing frontal activity below the Tasman Low should generate plenty of southerly swell for Friday and into the weekend with light, local offshore winds due to give into relatively weak sea breezes, capping off the event in good to great waves.
//CRAIG BROKENSHA
Comments
forey looks great , those winds will work .
Indeed!
Hmmm…a lot of bad winds mixed in with a touch of good…we’ll see…
There is a nice little slug of sand on the inside which could help extend rides on this swell direction.
They could always hold it at the Nobbys Beach rip bowl on the big swells. Doesn't matter which way the wind is blowing then.
Was thinking the same thing. Would make interesting viewing too.
And they could have a separate score for most grains of sand in your wetsuit.
Exactly!
I learned to boog in that shorey/bowl!
South west wind at Merewether reefs is quite surfable
The more immediate concern is unbelievably bad sand build up on the beach generated by large east swell last week in the rain event
If that sand doesn’t move in next 3 days big south swell coupled with big king high tides then contest period will be poor regardless of the swell direction
Sadly inside bowl section where morgs beat Florence a few yrs back at WCT event is completely covered in sand and the left in middle is now a big deep gutter
Is the contest event fixed?
It might be fun comp waves at the next point south?
Haha that wouldn't upset anyone
Lots of ebikes and microphones cameras getting thrown into the lineup.
It's a shitty wave ....
Gunna be interesting to see what kind of wave quality they get with the pattern next week.
Surely yesterdays south swell would’ve helped move sand off the ladies and rocks?
Very excited for this to start tomorrow!