Australia - you're standing in it
As Australia would be the country most affected by a Chinese blockade do any others see this happening ? We would need to prepare now and start rebuilding a manufacturing sector urgently .
I wrote this ( and other stuff ) at 2.52pm
"Australia has to get tech ready for the future when China is the World superpower . They are not ahead of the US militarily yet . I hope they don't go too far past them in the next 20 years . By that time we will need a few of the latest nuclear rockets in our subs pointed at the Chinese to make them think twice about smashing us . If they could get away with it now they would do it in a heart beat .
The only solution I can see is that the entire world blockades them . No one buys anything from them or sells anything to them . Lock them out of the world financial and technology system .No calls in or out .No travel in or out . Every country nationalises all their overseas assets . We take Darwin port and all our land an water rights back . Give them one year to get themselves and us ready . This would hurt them ."
Hutchy this is VERY good, well worth a look:
You will see the historical context as well as the current strategic situation, from both viewpoints. Probably the best current primer on the topic. Agree with you on manufacturing. Blockade is likely to go the other way, but the island continent (think: belt/road) may overcome this(?)
Edit: *** The Peter Dutton presenting is not the Peter Dutton you are thinking of***
Thanks Jonno . Looks good and will look at when I have an hour spare .
The blockade needs to be land as well . Close the Belt Road . China will only play ball if it understands it will be hurt . All countries nationalising their assets and a blockade WILL hurt them I think .
They would hate being put in the naughty corner .
There’s quite a bit of historical debate over the effectiveness of blockades. Especially against a continental power. It was effective against the Japanese, but ultimately not a war winner.
And that’s if you’re prepared to undertake what’s effectively an act of war. Good luck getting the ‘whole world’ to sign up to that.
Question for those that know, how likely is a war with China in the next say 10 years?
I'm not "in the know" on that one GF, but I wouldn't mind betting it is inevitable.
I mean you just have to look at the way China is behaving in the South China Sea with all it's neighbours, fishing rights, building islands, claiming ownership etc etc.
And then look at what is happening with us and our allies and all the posturing and talk.
I don't see any indication on either side of diplomacy having much success.
God what trash, now Michael West is on the crack pipe, how people actually think this guy is credible is beyond me.
Had to laugh at this bit though.
"The funny thing was that US President Joe Biden seemed to have forgotten Scott Morrison’s name as he announced this new AUKUS alliance with Boris Johnson. “That Fella Down Under” he called him, casually gesticulating in Scott Morrison’s general direction.
Perhaps it was a deliberate thing, such was the PM’s unctuous toadying to the buffoon Donald Trump.
Is this the first time Michael West has seen Biden talk?
We all know Biden forgetting his name wasn't on purpose, his blooper real of speech fuck ups and forgetting anything and everything would run longer than a feature length movie, the dude reads from cue cards FFS.
goofyfoot wrote:Question for those that know, how likely is a war with China in the next say 10 years?
fitzroy-21 wrote:I'm not "in the know" on that one GF, but I wouldn't mind betting it is inevitable.
I mean you just have to look at the way China is behaving in the South China Sea with all it's neighbours, fishing rights, building islands, claiming ownership etc etc.
And then look at what is happening with us and our allies and all the posturing and talk.
I don't see any indication on either side of diplomacy having much success.
You would expect South China Sea blowing up into a war in our life time is a real possiblity, if it did i doubt the USA and it's allies would sit back and let other smaller countries get fucked over.
And if the USA got involved even if we didn't (which is unlikely), then surely we risk becoming a target, even if it was just a warning shot.
China invading Taiwan in the next ten years is a real possibility, not sure what that would mean for the rest of the world though?. would the USA get involved in anyway?
Great video VJ, very interesting.
I think the clock is ticking for the CCP, more specifically XI, on Taiwan. Xi’s staked quite a bit of his credibility in his ability to deliver reunification. There’s a constantly shifting sliding doors scenario of relative advantage that comes into play though, and that’s not just considering military capability; there’s a whole bunch of broader diplomatic and geostrategic calculations as well. The scale of PRC military overmatch vs ROC is well known, but that’s no guarantee that a cross strait invasion is going to succeed. China’s seeking a coercive resolution through ongoing military posturing - scare Taipei into negotiations - but Taiwanese are increasingly viewing themselves as independent. They’re becoming more resilient, both socially and militarily. The US position on supporting Taiwan is ambiguous, by design, but they’re providing a lot more high end capability. And there’s a broad consensus that the US was prepared to lose skin getting out of Afghanistan to focus on a greater threat.
On timing, It’s anyone’s guess. The outgoing US commander in the Indo-Pacific said within 6 years.
Why’s Taiwan important? That’s for another post. @Gsco has some perspectives on this, maybe in the archive of this thread. Some good exchanges.
I wouldn’t take anything Paul Keating has to say about China on face value. He is an adviser to a Chinese state owned development bank. What is it exactly do you think Keating is paid for by this bank? His expertise on banking? Project development? Pig Farming?
Keating is paid to grease the wheels of the Chinese state owned asset into Australia and to write little pieces such as the one above. He’s a less obvious Sam Dastyari. His opinion on China is that China is very lucrative if your morals are flexible!
The 14 point list of demands issued by China itself states without question that China expects Australia to abandon its sovereignty and democracy in the face of Chinese rise to domination.
No thanks, Paul.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/foreign-interference-laws-chines...
yep, michael west kidding himself there... on a few fronts... not least the biden bullshit...
and good ol' keating, showing his true colours... or, ...super not happy at the dismantling of his little pet project... either way bias is clouding the judgement of the once great man... (reminds me of someone else... not so much the great part, but the bias bit... and the pet project bit...), however, keating does make some good points...
"Question for those that know, how likely is a war with China in the next say 10 years?"
not really in the know either... but seems nearly anyone's guess is good as 'the experts' guess these days...
I'd say its largely china's call goofyfoot...
whilst it may well be true china has no intention of a physical invasion of australia... cougb cough... maybe... any non bias blind freddy can see they have been playing a 'long game' right across the world...7
...not least capitalising on australia's third world level corrupt leadership at every opportunity, ...leadership of all colours!
then there's what fitzroy said...
combined with china's 'debt trap diplomacy' right across asia, africa, and even italy I heard someone refer to the other day
basically the cunts are out of control, super rogue, under pressure on many fronts, and totally spiralling out of control...
but the ideologically aligned seriously compromised sinofawners - like keating and constance - will make an infinite number of false equivelances, examples, and excuses to distract our attention elsewhere...
all sounds a bit familiar...
the war, if any... will likely be the south china sea, or more likely taiwan, and this is where keating and west have a point, morrison (and labor incidently...) have just signed us up to a no discretion allowed commitment to backing the US to the hilt, should they get trigger happy in either of these scenarios...
whether you want to take a majority world view... (a rules based UN view funnily enough...) ...or a china apologist view... will determine if you think that action is justified or not...
(also if you actually like japan, korea, and a heap of SE asian countries... and think that they should be free of the chinese wuhan surveillance state domination, ...and cultural genocide... that might also sway your opinion...)
but nah, xi's the good guy in this transaction according to constance... and we're all just 'sinophobes'...
carry on...
deluding...
idiot
and I should add...
china has explicitly warned that if australia gets involved in taiwan, they will likely bomb australia in one form or other...
so yeh, 'the war' may be brought to us...
Indo said...."China invading Taiwan in the next ten years is a real possibility, not sure what that would mean for the rest of the world though?. would the USA get involved in anyway"?
Probably the real reason the yanks want to 'help' us with weapons and having more troops stationed here.....for them the further away from american soil the better ....i mean they will sacrifice australia if alls not going to plan...and they can walk away again as in all there recent wars...........bunch of dumb ossies..........but in saying that australia does need allies......damed if ya do etc.
China is going to do what it wants and the decision to start a war rests with China’s prerogatives to keep expanding its territory throughout the Indo Pacific. China has recently begun ordering transiting vessels to submit and seek permission when entering its illegally declared South China Sea. Not sure how this can be misconstrued as anything but an invasion and occupation including territory which already belongs to other nations. Why would anyone believe that China’s illegal territorial expansion would stop after its recent success?
No one has suggested an invasion of Chinese mainland so I’m really not sure where the claims of warmongering by Australia are coming from? Every single act we do is obviously in self defence.
Australia has been sitting on the fence with the choice between US and Chinese submission. We are an Anglo nation ( 85% of Australians have Anglo heritage) and our historic ties and alliances have been with the West. China is an illiberal and undemocratic society which has vociferously stated that it is in competition with our liberal Democratic political model. The choice to officially side with the US is long overdue as it has finally put notice on China’s not-so-clandestine attempt to wrest control of Australia through subversion and corruption. It hasn’t put an immediate halt on this attempt to control Australia but it has made China’s job much, much harder.
Very telling that Keating is apoplectic about Australia’s alleged “loss of sovereignty” by signing up to buy some military hardware to the US but he’s noticeably silent on the 14 point list of demands issued by China which unambiguously demand forfeiture of our sovereignty. Our failure to immediately submit to this ridiculous Chinese demands has seen China punish Australia as much as possible using any economic sanction which does not inconvenience itself.
What’s Paul got to say about that…..nothing. He’s not paid to point out the myriad ways that China reveals its contempt for Australia in very real and detrimental terms.
It’s all very interesting, I’m only just starting to really read up on it. Hasn’t been something I’ve been interested in until lately.
Excellent article but it fails to account for China’s number one weapon…..the corruption of national security by greed. Here is a couple of maps which show the various nations dominant trading partners 1980 vs 2018. Think of every Red coloured nation as having multitudes of their own version of Twiggy - an extremely influential and powerful figure whose wealth is dependent on continued kowtowing to China and who prioritise personal wealth over national allegiance.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/morrison-the-third-amigo-speaks-loudly-t...
"The war on terror could seem like a distraction. As the US wasted its resources hunting Bin Laden and non-existent weapons of mass destruction, China powered ahead."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-17/submarine-deal-is-australia-usa-r...
The alternative is to sit back whilst China expands its brand of crushing dissent around the globe.
Blowin wrote:The alternative is to sit back whilst China expands its brand of crushing dissent around the globe.
Blowin, your 85 % stat of Anglo Australians...not sure where you get your stats....but here's the real Stats...when you say "Australia has been sitting on the fence with the choice between US and Chinese submission. We are an Anglo nation ( 85% of Australians have Anglo heritage) and our historic ties and alliances have been with the West"
Maybe it's time we stopped trying to be lap dogs of the west .....and try working with our regional partners...you know like the Asians and the Polynesians?
Ethnic Background Of Australians
Rank Principal Ancestral Ethnicity or Nationality Share of Australian Population
1 British 67.4%
2 Irish 8.7%
3 Italian 3.8%
4 German 3.7%
5 Chinese 3.6%
6 Aboriginal Australian 3.0%
7 Indian 1.7%
8 Greek 1.6%
9 Dutch 1.2%
10 Other 5.3%
goofyfoot wrote:Question for those that know, how likely is a war with China in the next say 10 years?
there is already a trade war with China , they do not need to use their military.....it's the Aussie wannabes that rattle the sabres and yes with the USA to protect us,LOL.
Australia is in a terrible position for trade war...if China stopped all it's exports to Australia tomorrow....we would be totally and completely bankrupt as a nation and would collapse into 3 rd world country in a matter of months...that's the reality......the west at present is totally dependent on China's goods '''so the real war is/will be trade..
All this talk of military action is just smoke and mirrors......oh wow lets get 8 subs, we have spent $2.3 B with the French so far , will pay another $400m for breaking the contract....France /Europe not happy and we were in the middle of a free trade agreement with Europe where with the retirement of Merkel hands the head of the Europe to Macron.
Our genius's in Govt have burnt Europe, provoked China , and yeah we have sided with Boris and sleepy Joe.......
Are we safer or better off .....nah!!!
Pissing off and getting offside with China and now France and the EU, and further aligning with the failed US state and laughing stock of the world, is the most short sighted strategic blunder Australia could be making right now.
It is ignorant and against the grain of the current shifting of the global balance of power, prosperity and alliances.
And it comes at a time when another complete disaster of US foreign military intervention is playing out and laid bare in plain sight for the whole world to see: Afghanistan.
No wonder NZ is so swift in distancing itself from us..
I’ve never seen such stupidity in foreign relations as what’s happening in the scomo govt.
That Attack class submarine project was a dumpster fire. I reckon they would have been better cauterising that on the basis of poor performance and then announcing a shirt re-tender process.
You and I broadly disagree on China (CCP) gsco, but I think you’re right on your characterisation of the foreign relations approachEs.
Back on the topic of the subs, I never understood in the first place why Australia decided on the French ? It was originally between French and Japanese and as a consumer I ( and most people I know)would always buy a Toyota or Mitsubishi over a Renault or Citron in a heartbeat, in fact other than fashion or perfume (and Bic lighters) I cant think of any French product that is known for its reliability or quality at all?
Now deciding to use tried and tested US and British (our allies who also will be using the same technology,equipment, the missiles , spare parts etc will all be interchangable etc )Submarines does make a lot of sense and back to the car comparison I,d rather head off into the desert in a Chevrolet or Ford than the French equivalent everytime.
Came down to local manufacturing content Mike. Japanese subs were going to be built in Japan. French subs were going to deliver “60% local manufacturing content over the life of the program”
SA industry.
That industry content requirement is at the heart of most of the Defence acquisition debacles over the past few decades. Results in irreconcilable compromises on capability all over the place.
That’s a political imperative, not based on the actual ‘Military Capability’ required. Defence isn’t allowed to just go and buy the best tool for the job. That and the fact that Australia does have some quite specific capability requirements due to our geography.
What the subs decision suggests to me is that there is a shift in the envisaged employment of them.
Australia is not in a trade war with China . A war requires two to fight . We are getting bullied by an aggressor . Be nice to them , stop pissing them off , their talk of invasion and bombing is smoke and mirrors , etc etc was EXACTLEY what the stupid said to Churchill re Hitler .
I agree with Churchill . Never side with or appease a bully ( especially one that has different political views ) .
China will takeover Taiwan . If they do it by force it will happen in under a month ( probably 2 weeks is what I have read ) . The US will not be able ( and with Biden willing )to do anything but react after the event . I would guess sooner rather than later . They want their Chip manufacturing now .
"No wonder NZ is so swift in distancing itself from us.." Ha Ha - Who cares what Ahern says ? Their population will not agree with this stupid view .
Not time to put our heads in the sand and ignore reality .
Time for us to stand tall and fight WAY above our weight division . Australia does that very well .
"Back on the topic of the subs, I never understood in the first place why Australia decided on the French ? It was originally between French and Japanese and as a consumer I ( and most people I know)would always buy a Toyota or Mitsubishi over a Renault or Citron in a heartbeat, in fact other than fashion or perfume (and Bic lighters) I cant think of any French product that is known for its reliability or quality at all?"
turnball's answer to the one solitary thing tony abbott ever got right...
I see little emanual has gone full hissy fit and recalled his ambassadors to oz and US
a little overreactive from the little big man
but to be fair, a smarter move would have been to include the french in the developing alliance, tokenistisly at least...
most interesting that oz was even developing a form of alliance with france, and the others were not even considered, just a few years ago... and now...
You are right Etarip
"That industry content requirement is at the heart of most of the Defence acquisition debacles over the past few decades. Results in irreconcilable compromises on capability all over the place."
"What the subs decision suggests to me is that there is a shift in the envisaged employment of them."
This I think is more a decision to stop your first point . Finally an Adult decision that is in our best interest . We can think of much better ways to bring manufacturing to SA .
"Time for us to stand tall and fight WAY above our weight division . Australia does that very well ."
Like we did in Afghanistan and Vietnam Hutchy?
We said "how high sir" when the Yanks said "jump", and look how that turned out.
Our enemies don't get us into conflicts. Our allies do.
Australia's only successful recent military campaign was Timor Leste, where shots weren't (or barely) fired. Large coalition of countries, UN support, clear objective, no US troops, and professional soldiering.
Call me crazy, but maybe the answer to our security doesn't involve an alliance with a shrinking number of old allies. Australia doesn't fight above it's weight division, we kiss arse above our weight for zero national benefit.
They’re still planning on building the new subs in Adelaide. The completed (sealed) reactors will be imported and put into the subs. No intention / requirement for replacement of the fuels. That’s the difference with the French nuke boats.
That link that VJ posted the other day was good - and there were some knowledgeable contributions in the comments. Some trolls too, but that’s the internets
I really dislike that ‘punch above our weight’ mantra too. It’s meaningless parochialism. Worse though, it undermines sensible decision making.
"I really dislike that ‘punch above our weight’ mantra too. It’s meaningless parochialism. Worse though, it undermines sensible decision making."
it's absolute cringeworthy crazy talk...
@etarp.
For most of my life I held the exact same views about China as what are being mentioned above (again).
Then about a decade ago I met a really nice, intelligent and smoking hot Chinese girl while she was doing her PhD here in Australia (and I was just finishing mine, so we overlapped by about 6 months), and I subsequently lived with her and her family in China a few times, returning to Australia in January last year.
This experience, combined with learning some Mandarin Chinese to a rudimentary level, gave me what I think is a realistic perspective of China, and one that was particularly influenced by the day-to-day life of an anonymous Chinese family toiling to survive in the mighty city of Guangzhou, which I will always have an affinity for.
I realised that my old views of China (those above) are based overwhelmingly on a fear of the unknown, and are also just a regurgitation of the junk being fed to us and spammed by the Western media.
Now when I read the above views the are just cringeworthy.
I believe most of the people above would substantially change their views of China if they had a similar experience as me.
Re the subs heard an interesting point the other day that by about 20 years, new technology will make submarines below the water visible and then they will be worthless as they will lose all their advantages
GSCO -
Having sex with a beautiful Chinese girl , meeting her family and learning how to say Dim Sim does not really make me think you know what Xi and the rest of China thinks .
Does sound like fun though .
The Left leaning West media is naturally biased to China .
gsco, that’s great perspective mate. I appreciate the alternate viewpoint. My issue isn’t, and will never be, with the Chinese people. It’s with the CCP, which I believe is a malign and ambitious regime. Their actions in the South China Sea as well as predatory lending practises across the globe speak volumes. But I’ll never hold the people of Guangzhou personally responsible for that. They’ve got less agency to influence government (‘the party’) than the pitiful amount that we do in a democracy.
good for you gsco, but you don't think you bring a little bias to the issue?
I really don't think many australians think the chinese people are much different to what you see
however, the behaviour of the ccp is a totally different beast and just plain abhorent on so many levels, and unfortunately this can be no longer dismissed or ignored
and frankly it beggars belief that some would even ask us to continue to do so
and vicvocal...
you're crazy!
your judgement is cooked
it just astounds me what self styled moralistic clowns like you and constance will turn a blind eye to
makes absolutely no sense at all
Distracted -"Re the subs heard an interesting point the other day that by about 20 years, new technology will make submarines below the water visible and then they will be worthless as they will lose all their advantages".
Same with missiles and defence shields .
New technology for the subs will also be developed to combat the other technology . That's how it all works . Who will win out I don't know ?
This is why it is great that we are in the uboat with the US . They are spending more and have the smarter people ( I hope ) developing technology .
"and vicvocal...
you're crazy!
your judgement is cooked"
My judgement is crazy because I questioned Hutchy19's jingoistic nonsense about standing up and fighting China. With what? They have nuclear-armed ICBMs, and we just had our arses handed to us by a bunch of Islamic fundamentalists with not much more than UIDs, rifles and pick up trucks.
We need slightly smarter ideas and rhetoric than Hutchy's, which is very similar to that moron Dutton's crap. He should stick to bullying powerless people. Dutton's good at that. Playing with the big boys? not so much.
VLocal .
I don't care if I know I can't win in a fight with a Bully . I know I couldn't live with myself if I just rolled over .
Can never give the bully the satisfaction of thinking they have subjected me . I would rather die trying to surprise the bully and punch him in the nose with all my might .
Please enlighten me with your smarter ideas . I am all ears !
no your judgement is cooked because you think submitting to the new tyrant in town is the answer
you are oh so trypical, always calling out america and the usual microagression bullshit but totally oblivious to the new nazis in town
it's like the last 20 years didn't even happen...
you have no credibility on this issue
you and constance
"...and we just had our arses handed to us by a bunch of Islamic fundamentalists with not much more than UIDs, rifles and pick up trucks."
a poor and pathetic comparison
taiwan don't want the invading overlords
neither do japan, korea, phillipines, vietnam, and pretty much the rest of the whole region
sypkan wrote:"Back on the topic of the subs, I never understood in the first place why Australia decided on the French ? It was originally between French and Japanese and as a consumer I ( and most people I know)would always buy a Toyota or Mitsubishi over a Renault or Citron in a heartbeat, in fact other than fashion or perfume (and Bic lighters) I cant think of any French product that is known for its reliability or quality at all?"
Sypkan...ever heard of Aero-Spatial / Airbus Industries /Peugot ......I notice you use Mitsubishi as a great product.....Mitsubishi heavy machinery is great but they have a very small market share in Japan , because of inferior quality....France has a plethora of innovative industries and never sell short the quality of the agricultural products, nothing in Australia/USA/UK compares...
turnball's answer to the one solitary thing tony abbott ever got right...
Brutus you can press quote to copy someone’s post and then type your response under theirs so it all appears on a single post.
Not the quoted one then your response on a seperate one after that..
Hope that wasn’t confusing?!
Hutchy 19 wrote:VLocal .
I don't care if I know I can't win in a fight with a Bully . I know I couldn't live with myself if I just rolled over .
Can never give the bully the satisfaction of thinking they have subjected me . I would rather die trying to surprise the bully and punch him in the nose with all my might .
Please enlighten me with your smarter ideas . I am all ears !
Australia has limited Chinese financial investment in Australia ....as I said in a previous post , if China decides on Monday to stop all exports to Australia.....Australia will make Venezuela look like a stable rich country......there is no need for anything military from China they already have us by the balls......and could crush us with their economic power, just as they could do to the USA......
So the real question should be...why at this point in time , where economies are bleeding , Covid is rampant, geo-politics never been so unstable , that we provoke China, piss of France /Europe ( there goes our free trade agreement with Europe).......for 8 submarines that will possibly appear in 20 years???????
sypkan wrote:"Back on the topic of the subs, I never understood in the first place why Australia decided on the French ? It was originally between French and Japanese and as a consumer I ( and most people I know)would always buy a Toyota or Mitsubishi over a Renault or Citron in a heartbeat, in fact other than fashion or perfume (and Bic lighters) I cant think of any French product that is known for its reliability or quality at all?"Sypkan...ever heard of Aero-Spatial / Airbus Industries /Peugot ......I notice you use Mitsubishi as a great product.....Mitsubishi heavy machinery is great but they have a very small market share in Japan , because of inferior quality....France has a plethora of innovative industries and never sell short the quality of the agricultural products, nothing in Australia/USA/UK compares...
The "I can't believe it's not politics" thread.