The United States(!) of A
Your edit:
Edit: regarding the “give Putin what he wants or a fair fight”, no and I’ve got no idea where you got that from. I think they should negotiate for peace. Right now the US and other nations won’t negotiate on Putin’s demands and are cheering the war on and pouring fuel on it - they don’t seem to want it to end.
Is a reasonable start point for negotiations something like: “remove all your troops from Ukrainian soil and we’ll be able to talk”
Sound reasonable to me. And the UN charter
Pouring fuel on it = providing economic and military aid to a country that has been invaded by its neighbour 3 times in the past 8 years. How many times has Ukraine invaded Russia?
The US “and other nations” is 141 member states of the UN. Countries that support Russia’s actions: Russia, Syria, North Korea, Eritrea, Belarus.
“They don’t need to be part of EU/ NATO, or at least not now”… OK, when? Do you put a time on it? Or is it conditions- based? (Hint: both EU and NATO membership is ALREADY conditions based). It’s been on again and off again since 1992. The thing that changed domestic Ukrainian support for joining NATO? We’ll, that would be the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea. Massive own goal by Vlad. What was the imminent threat that Putin needed to deal with in 2022 in Ukraine? Because, in international law and Just War theory, there needs to be one.
On Belarus. An active combatant in this war? Military strikes launched from its soil directly (missiles) and a launching point for the Russian assault on Kyiv. Armed Belarusian formations on its borders holding Ukrainian troops in the west, away from defending its capital and its industrial heartland. Legitimate military target or not? Should / would /could (?) Russia respond to a NATO plane shooting down a Belarusian missile, plane or targeting a Belarusian column invading Ukraine. Legitimate target or no? I mean, it’s about buffer zones, right?
gsco what makes you think putins ambitions end with Ukraine? There's a reason countries like Moldova, Romania, Slovakia and Poland are nervous and are offering as much help as possible.
It isn't a case of putin demanding more than he would settle for, his recent 5000 word essay tells us about the legacy he wants to leave. He hasn't actually acknowledged the fact that he has invaded Ukraine and started a war, he is 'freeing the Ukrainian people' according to Russian state TV. How do you negotiate with someone who's MO is deceit?
Besides, it is the Ukranian people who will decide, they clearly don't want to live under a Russian puppet government while their language and customs are erased. Everyone knows how putin deals with dissent.
"NATO it’s a relic of the Cold War"
au contraire, it just got turbocharged. This event has Poland and the Baltic states freaking; the neutral Swiss condemned it (!) and neutral Sweden and Finland have considered joining NATO to the point of debating it in their legislatures. This is a crucial point: I haven't seen the West so united in viewpoint since the 1980s; I haven't seen Europe so united since... ever! NATO is supplying the means, and Germany has finally made it's choice - 150Bn defence spend and cancelling Nordstream, which is unprecedented for the way they were leaning.
Geopolitically, it's a huge backfire for Russia/China.
What I'd like to see is Russia find a way out, save face somehow, apologise for the deaths and destruction, and eventually join in with the West and not be an enemy.
I’ll think about it over the weekend.
But quickly yes VJ biggest potential long term policy mistake by US/EU would be to lose Russia to China. We need to bring Russia into our fold to counter the projected sheer size and power of China. Maybe that’s actually what the US is working towards here..?
Great conversation above folks, and alot of merit in all of the points. Learning alot from all your knowledge and your opinions. I'm guessing the 'framework' gsco suggests for Ukraine to be secure would be in the form of some kind of formal agreement with Russia that would have to be binding, in return for not aligning with EU and NATO, which i agree with gsco, is unneccesary, except for current circumstances. Whether that agreement is achievable or not, is obviously questionable but i'd assume that would be the starting point for that aspect. But i'm only guessing from a newbies perspective on the situation. Cheers for a well informed debate.
hahaha!
Putin is brutal and is not going to back down, no matter what the cost in lives to Ukraine or the demolition of his own economy. His negotiation point with Zelensky will be how many more lives will be lost before you want to surrender.
upnorth your question is easy to answer: I think it's clear that I wouldn't be willing to give Putin too much of what he wants at all - just enough to initially get him to stop shooting - so I'm not advocating for giving in to him or giving him control of Ukraine and risking him then going on a further rampage with a renewed confidence.
Etarip you've asked a lot of challenging questions that I'll think about and seek to answer (surf is good today though)...!
In general however my experience with "large scale" and sensitive negotiations in the corporate world is that you just need to take one small step at a time focusing on what's immediately in front of you, but of course with the bigger picture and long-term implications in mind, and then deal with the changing landscape as it evolves.
What I'm trying to say is initially just getting Putin over the line with minimal and long-term palatable compromises/concessions in order to get him to stop shooting is the first objective. Then once he stops shooting the whole landscape and context will be very different (as it already is in just one week), a lot of what's currently being speculated about will not be relevant, and there will be a whole new range of other issues to address and negotiate as things evolve from there.
But just shouting at Putin to stop shooting, as is currently being done, is evidently not going to work or get the ball rolling.
Putin is a massive kook and he's dropped in on Zelensky. Some say he should be let off but this isn't his first offence. In fact he has been ignoring etiquette and showing off to his mates for a while, much to the chagrin of locals. He has been humoured so far, partly because he looks a bit psycho and he has back up but this latest offence is too much. Worse, his crew look like they are here to stay, campervans taking up the whole car park and an over bearing presence making beach goers feel uncomfortable. They are reports of theft in town and anyone approaching the new arrivals receives abuse. So this latest indiscretion is the final straw. The kook has been asked to leave the water but he's calling everyone's bluff. Zelensky and the local crew exchange knowing looks. We all know how this ends for Putin.
Interesting conversation for a very scary situation.... Thanks.
This is a good review of the negotiations, frameworks and approaches to peace since 2013. Written before the invasion. It’s as balanced as any I’ve read, representing the perspectives of both sides and why they’re largely unable to meet in the middle.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/10/mediation-ukraine-russia-2014-war-w...
The invasion of Ukraine upended all that. And shelling cities indiscriminately is a war crime.
Negotiations were difficult two weeks ago, since then putin has crossed the rubicon. Direct shelling of civilians is a war crime, to name but one. Putin and his generals will be brought before the Hague.
Negotiations were hard because Putin had made his mind up long before he refused to negotiate.
Looks like the operational order was issued on 20 Jan or thereabouts. Over a month before the invasion, sorry ‘special military denazification operation’ was launched
Finally some people are acknowledging china is a real threat.
This is another fascinating thread from Kamil, analysing Russian reliance on oil and gas exports. The implications of this dependency are significant. Furthermore, the impact of Russian kleptocracy diminishes profits. He touches on China’s potential motivations for supporting Putin, which confirmation bias aside, I think I touched on last week.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1499855858456567809.html
Russian economy is super fragile. It's critically dependent upon the:
— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 4, 2022
1. Export of natural resources
2. Technological import
It has always been so. That's why Russia could never win a major war without massive economic help of the West. Without Western allies Russia's doomed🧵 pic.twitter.com/0HEe4tnYAD
Hey folks I have two excellent investigations of the 'why' in Ukraine. First is from my favourite gaming channel, creator of some great World of Warships content, the wonderfully eloquent and measured, former RN ship's writer Jingles:
Second is the video that inspired his discussion, this one is unique because you get to see the 'buffer state' geopolitical analysis from Russia's view, taking into account the massive northern European plain... really spun me out as to the relationship of where the border is and how much an army has to defend. Mentioned in both is the oil/gas aspect, and shown in this one are all the pipelines and how they have changed over time. Also pertinent is the idea that Russia has already achieved their aims. Most mind-opening: a great piece of work.
I'll try to catch up with discussion here as I can.
One further thing that spun me out, wish I could find the link now, was a story of the first successful oil tanker 'Zoroaster' - flagged from Azerbaijan! It is entirely possible to navigate by sea from the Baltic, via St Petersburg and the Volga river, through Russia, to the Black sea, and to the Caspian sea. Truly spun out, would love to do that trip one day in a peaceful future.
Might take Dylan Graves along with a film crew lol.
https://www.aukevisser.nl/esso/id706.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unified_Deep_Water_System_of_European_Russia
What a unique trip this would be!
That’s a good summary VJ, also puts a lot more economic rationale behind the invasion.
New gas discoveries around the Crimea and shale gas deposits in Ukraine give Russia a lot of motivation to seize those deposits while preventing Ukraine from developing the deposits themselves.
The water supply for Crimea is also critical and gives an insight into the future of other possible “climate wars” over water security around the world.
Those recent gas and oil discoveries in the Azov and Black seas changed the equation for Putin. So much for ‘security’ concerns. It’s all about the oil…
Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory.
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) March 7, 2022
The Prime Minister of Japan Fumio Kishida announced it during his speech in the parliament on March 7,–JIJI reports https://t.co/GUy5ZksJnc
eyebrows raised
Just out of interest the First Air Fleet anchored at Hitokappu Bay, Kurils on 22 November 1941 prior to the sortie for Pearl Harbour strike. Wiki pic here of Akagi's flight deck with Kaga in immediate background:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_aircraft_carrier_Akagi#/media/Fil...
velocityjohnno wrote:Hey folks I have two excellent investigations of the 'why' in Ukraine. First is from my favourite gaming channel, creator of some great World of Warships content, the wonderfully eloquent and measured, former RN ship's writer Jingles:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUzVuBr-yQ8
Second is the video that inspired his discussion, this one is unique because you get to see the 'buffer state' geopolitical analysis from Russia's view, taking into account the massive northern European plain... really spun me out as to the relationship of where the border is and how much an army has to defend. Mentioned in both is the oil/gas aspect, and shown in this one are all the pipelines and how they have changed over time. Also pertinent is the idea that Russia has already achieved their aims. Most mind-opening: a great piece of work.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE
I'll try to catch up with discussion here as I can.
Good videos which sum up the situation well I think. If anyone is interested in a bit more detail on Russia and the wider region a book called Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marshall unpicks everything that has led to this situation. First published a few years ago but pretty much predicted Russia's invasion. His second book The Power of Geography features Australia in the first chapter and discusses what the future might hold.
William Hague on why Xi is the only leader who can bring Putin to heel
"Only one person in the world has the power to halt the bloodshed in Ukraine. You might think that is Vladimir Putin but he is now trapped in a vortex of his own making, a fight to the finish in which either Ukraine will be destroyed or he will. Nor is it Joe Biden. For all the emotional appeals from Kyiv to create a Nato no-fly zone, such an idea would not end the current conflict and would risk initiating a far bigger one. The West is giving enormous assistance to Ukraine but is powerless to stop the slaughter.
Others see themselves as the one. Macron makes long calls to Putin but receives only worthless assurances. Erdogan would like to mediate but is mistrusted by both sides. The Israeli prime minister, Naftali Bennett, has made the most substantial effort but has no leverage over Moscow. The one man who has that is Xi Jinping, sitting in Beijing. He is unwilling to use it and he is making a big mistake.
A month ago Putin visited Xi and no doubt squared him on his planned invasion of Ukraine. It would all be over quickly, he will have assured him. The West would impose sanctions but its weakness would be exposed. And Xi will have calculated that, inconvenient though it may be for one country friendly with China to invade another one, the resulting movement of pieces on the global strategic chessboard would suit him rather well.
For one thing, Washington would be taught that focusing on Beijing as its strategic rival — the incoming assumption of the Biden administration — is impossible. The Americans thought they could do deals with Russia and concentrate on beating China but find they have to return to the old battlegrounds of Europe. The West, in the Chinese mind, is like the Roman Empire in the fourth century, overstretched and in decline; its dominance will end even more quickly if it has to defend all its frontiers at once. What price the famed “pivot to Asia”, begun by the US under Obama, when Europe can fall apart?
Russian aggression therefore counts as a welcome diversion when seen from Beijing, with the added benefit of making Russia more dependent on its friendship with China. Xi knew that Putin would be happy to sign their joint statement proclaiming “no limits” to their co-operation because he needed it — inward flows of semiconductors and new outward sales of gas would, for a time at least, depend on China. It was Mao’s fear of the more powerful Soviet Union that allowed Nixon and Kissinger to pull the two great communist powers strategically apart in 1972. Now China is the stronger neighbour and can bind Russia into an alliance. With Russia held tight, Kissinger’s great gambit is reversed. And when the time comes to move on Taiwan, China’s back would be secure.
Xi was therefore happy to sign up to a statement on February 4 that said the two countries “will never waver” in “standing shoulder to shoulder”. Armed with this marriage contract, Putin immediately felt free to misbehave, leaving hapless Chinese diplomats at the UN repeatedly wrong-footed. On January 31, China argued there was no need for a Security Council meeting at all because Russia had said there would be no war. But Russian preparations for a war intensified. By February 17, China called for the Minsk agreements to be implemented, only to find that Putin abrogated them a few days later.
With the invasion under way, on February 25, China’s ambassador to the UN was vainly calling for respect for the “territorial integrity of all states”. By February 28, he was referring to “heart-wrenching” scenes in Ukraine and calling for de-escalation to avert “a large-scale humanitarian crisis”, but his remarks were extremely brief with no trace of any proposal to do anything about it. His statement might as well have read “please stop calling these embarrassing meetings where our past words turn out to be rubbish and we will only wring our hands while doing nothing for the Ukrainian people who we always said were our friends”.
While Xi has called Putin to “encourage negotiations”, China’s foreign minister has reiterated the “rock solid” friendship with Russia, ignoring the evidence of war crimes and the indiscriminate shelling of civilians. Since China is opposed to sanctions and will not force meaningful negotiations, her policy in the face of the destruction of an entire nation is to do nothing. A country that is a permanent member of the Security Council and aspires to global leadership is reduced to pathetic abstentions at the UN while uttering empty platitudes.
Such inertia is, of course, a tragedy for our common humanity. Crucially, however, it is a mistake from the point of view of China’s own national interest. The implications of this war are already turning out differently from anything Putin will have described to Xi, and some of them are beginning to outweigh the geopolitical calculation made only a month ago. The first is the global revulsion at Russia’s crimes, reflected in a vote of 141 to five at the UN general assembly. In the West, this outraged reaction involves a rapid change in defence and energy policies and a revitalisation of unity.
The West that emerges from this crisis is likely to be more alert to defending democracy and more heavily defended. Reminded of the dangers posed by an increasingly isolated leader, in power for life and bent on territorial ambitions, it will increasingly wonder if the miscalculation visible in Moscow will also occur in Beijing. Business leaders who have said goodbye to their entire Russian investments will recognise that the same can happen in China. And a key lesson if there is a long conflict in Ukraine will be that Taiwan needs to be armed to the teeth.
The Chinese leadership, known for taking a long view, also has to reckon now with the likely fate of the Putin regime. We have seen enough already to know that Russia will never subdue Ukraine even if it occupies the country and kills huge numbers of its people. The longer the war, the more young Russian soldiers will die and the more Russia’s economy will be laid waste. It is distinctly possible that, at some point in the coming decade, the whole corrupt Putin system will come to a sticky end.
A long war is going to rejuvenate the West, strengthen Taiwan and cause Russia to implode. China’s interests lie in shortening it dramatically. The entire world would thank Xi for using the unique leverage he possesses over Putin to call a peace conference and require his presence. It’s bad enough to agree a pact with a violent criminal. But it’s even worse to do nothing to control him."
Whatever the "why", the "how" shows the all too familiar pattern of leaders failing to consider "what if" worst case scenarios when facing real world complex issues. Hubris, hope and optimism do not work well in pandemics, fire, flood and..... war. As Mike Tyson said, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face".
Putin is not playing 3d chess like some thought, rather more like playing checkers - badly - to huge costs for all so far.
&t=71sBut, short term, being seen to fail on the world stage and in Russia, makes everything even more dangerous.
There was a previous comment about the SWIFT sanctions not having much impact on Russia. That might be the case but freezing the offshore cash reserves might have a bigger impact.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-09/putin-ukraine-russia-war-financia...
yes all of the above but this is what will bring Russia down....
https://westernstandardonline.com/2022/03/mcdonalds-pulls-out-of-russia-....
played!!
"...Many people were surprised to learn that Europe produced more natural gas than Russia 15 years ago. Then, two things happened. First, Russia built nuclear plants so it could export its natural gas abroad, rather than use it at home to produce natural gas. Second, Europe reduced its natural gas production, including from fracking, under pressure from climate activists. It now turns out that some of those anti-fracking activists were funded by Putin..."
https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/finally-even-elon-musk-goes-...
Despite this guy being religious he seems to know what he is talking about...not sure if already posted.
things really not going well for behind the curve biden...
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/saudis-uae-refuse-speak-biden-ove...
Here's another good clip on homelessness in California and how the far left created the problem.
Ps homelessness also majorly occurs all over USA such as in Seattle where i would hate to live as a homeless person with the cold.
annnnnd, who would've thought...
"[NEW YORK – Mar. 8, 2022] Project Veritas published a bombshell video on Tuesday showing Pulitzer Prize winning New York Times correspondent, Matthew Rosenberg, speaking about the events of January 6, 2021, in a way that contradicts his own reporting..."
"...
-NYT National Security Correspondent, Matthew Rosenberg, contradicts his own January 6 reporting: “There were a ton of FBI informants amongst the people who attacked the Capitol.”
-Rosenberg: “It was like, me and two other colleagues who were there [January 6] outside and we were just having fun!”
-Rosenberg: “I know I’m supposed to be traumatized, but like, all these colleagues who were in the [Capitol] building and are like ‘Oh my God it was so scary!’ I’m like, ‘f*ck off!’”
-Rosenberg: “I’m like come on, it’s not the kind place I can tell someone to man up but I kind of want to be like, ‘dude come on, you were not in any danger.’”
-Rosenberg: “These f*cking little dweebs who keep going on about their trauma. Shut the f*ck up. They’re f*cking b*tches.”
-Rosenberg: "They were making too big a deal. They were making this an organized thing that it wasn’t.”
-Rosenberg RESPONDS: “Will I stand by those comments? Absolutely."
..."
the piles and piles, ...and piles and piles and piles of bullshit chickens really are coming home to roost for this administration...
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/nyt-reporter-says-ton-fbi-informants...
sypkan wrote:things really not going well for behind the curve biden...
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/saudis-uae-refuse-speak-biden-ove...
Biden sounds like an idiot i cant believe how many idiots Americans have loved as presidents.
Groundswell, thanks for the Ben Shapiro video….it was excellent….a real eye opener.
I've been reading posts of communications problems for the Russians, and that senior officers had to be right where the action was to direct as a result.
Jesus, Ukraine just killed Gen. Maj. Vitaly Gerassimov, chief of staff of the 41 Army. At Kharkiv.
— [email protected] (@christogrozev) March 7, 2022
Russia, if you're listening: delete your army.
"played!!
"...Many people were surprised to learn that Europe produced more natural gas than Russia 15 years ago. Then, two things happened. First, Russia built nuclear plants so it could export its natural gas abroad, rather than use it at home to produce natural gas. Second, Europe reduced its natural gas production, including from fracking, under pressure from climate activists. It now turns out that some of those anti-fracking activists were funded by Putin..." "
Yep, if you want to beat an enemy easily you de-industrialise them.
Optimist wrote:Groundswell, thanks for the Ben Shapiro video….it was excellent….a real eye opener.
No probs, his voice is a bit annoying but he is very intelligent and knows whats up.
You should check out his channel on the Daily Wire its around $4 a month i think but worth it with many other people to watch too.
velocityjohnno wrote:I've been reading posts of communications problems for the Russians, and that senior officers had to be right where the action was to direct as a result.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500959074653024259
"played!!
"...Many people were surprised to learn that Europe produced more natural gas than Russia 15 years ago. Then, two things happened. First, Russia built nuclear plants so it could export its natural gas abroad, rather than use it at home to produce natural gas. Second, Europe reduced its natural gas production, including from fracking, under pressure from climate activists. It now turns out that some of those anti-fracking activists were funded by Putin..." "
Yep, if you want to beat an enemy easily you de-industrialise them.
It’s not a surprise to all, especially not to Poland and the Baltic states. If we are so keen in finding historical rationale to justify the war than Poland should wage a war against EVERYONE. What they lived through in the 20th century is enough to stay in war for the whole of 21st century. Below article clearly highlights some alarm bells coming from these countries in the last 15 years or so but no one bothered to listen.
Huge respect to the great country of Poland who took more than half of refugees already and the number is well into 7 figures. Also, supply chains coming from Poland are absolutely critical (and will prove even more critical in the future) to give Ukrainian any chance. If Russia is to seal the Poland/Ukraine boundary the war would effectively be over.
https://www.politico.eu/article/western-europe-listen-to-the-baltic-coun...
velocityjohnno wrote:I've been reading posts of communications problems for the Russians, and that senior officers had to be right where the action was to direct as a result.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500959074653024259
"played!!
"...Many people were surprised to learn that Europe produced more natural gas than Russia 15 years ago. Then, two things happened. First, Russia built nuclear plants so it could export its natural gas abroad, rather than use it at home to produce natural gas. Second, Europe reduced its natural gas production, including from fracking, under pressure from climate activists. It now turns out that some of those anti-fracking activists were funded by Putin..." "
Yep, if you want to beat an enemy easily you de-industrialise them.
It’s not a surprise to all, especially not to Poland and the Baltic states. If we are so keen in finding historical rationale to justify the war than Poland should wage a war against EVERYONE. What they lived through in the 20th century is enough to stay in war for the whole of 21st century. Below article clearly highlights some alarm bells coming from these countries in the last 15 years or so but no one bothered to listen.
Huge respect to the great country of Poland who took more than half of refugees already and the number is well into 7 figures. Also, supply chains coming from Poland are absolutely critical (and will prove even more critical in the future) to give Ukrainian any chance. If Russia is to seal the Poland/Ukraine boundary the war would effectively be over.
https://www.politico.eu/article/western-europe-listen-to-the-baltic-coun...
VJ, what sources are you following?
This guy is posting good threads with daily updates, outlining the dispositions and likely intentions across the three primary areas within Ukraine:
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 13: Russian forces continue to concentrate around Kyiv. Substantial foreign / mercenary forces have been brought in to bolster Russian forces. Ukrainian attacks on Russian supply routes remain effective. #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineWar #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/Oxoz4rUhho
— Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West (@JominiW) March 9, 2022
Pretty sober analysis. Balance is evenly poised.
Background reading: Kamil Galeev has what seems like some pretty compelling insights into Russian political, social and economic systems. His latest:
22. Why Russia can't produce anythinghttps://t.co/yAthD1Mroj
— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 9, 2022
TL;DR Russia is technologically dependent from the West. It can't change this under current sociopolitical structure. Growth of complex industries might entail renegotiation of power balance which is unacceptable
OPEC: UAE just announced that it will increase production to reduce impact on oil prices.
The machinations and permutations of cease-fires and peace deals, possible outcomes and why (or why not) they might work.
Freedman writes clearly, with little jargon, providing a welcome chunk of light in the density of sound bite news reporting.
https://samf.substack.com/p/giving-peace-a-chance?utm_campaign=post
A snippet:
“ Can a war launched on lies be stopped with the truth? The challenge from the start for those wondering how this war can best be concluded has been to identify a peace process that encourages Putin to walk away from his delusions. Even if the Russian military campaign had been far more successful there was never the capacity to install and sustain a puppet government. This leads to question about whether there are secondary objectives – such as territory in the Donbas or the neutralisation of Ukraine - that might satisfy Putin. But even here there are issues about the process itself. What will be required not only to get the two sides to agree but for them to be confident that any agreement would be honoured.”
biolabs 'russian disinformation'
conspiracy 'theory'
maybe...
https://greenwald.substack.com/p/victoria-nuland-ukraine-has-biological?s=r
for the non readers
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-we-have-righ...
' classic russian technique to blame on the other guy what they are planning to do themselves'
classic indeed
Wow Sypkan, as I thought …Biden’s biological weapons labs in Ukraine will be an obvious target for the Russians….who are the good guys and the bad guys?….as we all know deep down , everyone on earth is the same …some good people…some bad and the U.S. administration????
Yes amazing post sypkan i had to share that on facebook.
heres a video i found about 7 years ago predicting this scenario.
JFC: who places their ‘secret biological warfare development labs’ in such a precarious position? And why? And doesn’t dismantle them in advance of an invasion that the US has predicted for months?
There’s some long bows being drawn here. Very long. Maybe take it over to the COVID thread.
More likely reason for the invasion is Putin’s realisation of an unintended consequence of his 2014-2022 actions in Ukraine. He needed to double down.
The Putin apologists seem love to talk up his strategic genius. This is increasingly being questioned, and he’s painting HIMSELF, into a corner. Not being forced. Consider this: by annexing Crimea, largely with a largely Russian speaking population with a more sympathetic pro-Russian foreign policy preference, Putin changed the political complexion of Ukraine. He literally made the country more pro-western from a political perspective by removing a significant chunk of the pro-Russia political influence from the voting population at both an individual and provincial level. If you add the ‘contested territories in the east, it reinforces this trend. That’s not even taking into account the impact of his threats, and employment of, military force against Ukraine. From that perspective he’s made ‘reunion’ of Ukraine with Russia a political and social impossibility.
The Russian campaign is largely cooked. It’s going to unravel from here. They’ll continue to make some minor gains in the south, but will come under increasing pressure there too.
Rather than seeking poorly constructed conspiracies for answers to the tragedy that’s unfolding, perhaps break things down to a more manageable and local level.
The Mingles from Jingle vid above posted by VJ is well worth a listen.
. Not all about NATO expansion and security etc.
. securing the potentially massive oil and gas around the Crimea and fresh water for the Crimea and a land bridge to the region were major goals to secure the long term core of the Russian economy and oligarch wealth (oil and gas) and have been achieved.
. predicts that these regions will be hung on to no matter what - even if other parts of the Ukraine are let go in negotiations.
So maybe what appears to be all round a bad outcome for Russia with no exit is not so much in their eyes - long term.
Follow the money is often at the core of most geopolitics.
I agree with that perspective that control and access to Azov / Black Sea resources was a part of Putin’s imperialistic (highest form of capitalism etc) aims. They could have achieved much of this without reverting to war. There’s many examples of states sharing oil and gas wealth that don’t need to resort to leveling cities.
Unfortunately I think you are bang on Frog. Putin is looking long term in terms of economic resources such as gas, oil, water, coastal shipping ports and even agriculture.
This will benefit the Russian economy and simultaneously prevent the economic development of Ukraine. So there will be more war until that is secured and mass loss of innocent lives will continue.
"JFC: who places their ‘secret biological warfare development labs’ in such a precarious position?"
yeh, a bit like the china 'situation'...
or is that STILL regarded as conspiracy material?
(smart arsery not directed at you)
"And why?"
...is a good question, but I think we know the many reasons... unfortunately the 'why' didn't account for worst case scenarios.... in both cases... it didn't even account for a mild souring of relationships... unfortunately...
it was purely ideological and greed driven, based on some (now) broken post ww11 'model' that failed to account for a lot of things...
facillitated by some pretty reckless hubris filled leaders... where most are either well past their used by date, or so full of 'evidence' driven institutional dogma that they couldn't even make good decisions if they were half as smart as they believe themselves to be...
pure religious fervour, disguised as something superior to the the 'irrational' religious fervour they seek to replace
pig headed, hubristic, belief driven, 'us and them' thinking, with a touch of desperation and corruption thrown in
all done by a bunch of b graders at best it seems....
And doesn’t dismantle them in advance of an invasion that the US has predicted for months?
There’s some long bows being drawn here. Very long. Maybe take it over to the COVID
fwiw, Im not into this whole biden and establishment versus the russian apologist 'conspiracist' link wars that's developed... (not just here)
my position is putin is out of control, and a real danger. invading any country is not cool, and the way he has done it is just plain next level nasty ...evil if you will...
my links and position are what I find interesting, which is the now abject failure of the corrupted great globalists' position... a situation where the writing was on the wall a long time ago, well before trump, brexit, yellow vests etc.
watching ukraine is truly heartbreaking, as a news junky... it's also most exciting... but hearbreaking with a feeling of debillitating helplessness at a level I thought I was immune to...
but I do take great joy in watching the great globalists double down, time and time again, on their misguided adventures, and their wicked wixked ways of facillitating them
the 'conspiracy theorist' go to technique, of the last 5 years or more, is just plain embarrassing now, and just confirms either our leaders truly are b grade at best... or guided by a system wide already flawed model, that has only been corrupted more and more with the mindlessly dumb doubling down of the last ten years or so...
it's actually quite embarrassing watching such a flailing, misguided maelstrom, day after day, scandal after scandal...
that they (still) seem to think they're somehow 'winning'
in the information wars anyway...
it really is quite disheartening to watch
Biotech / bioscience / bio medicinal research does not equal biological warfare. That’s my point. The point about globalists accessing cheap labour costs and lax regulatory environments are valid. And risky.
Clearly, there’s dangers with any research in this area (hence the need for right regulation) but to equate every laboratory or facility with a military application is where conspiracy theory rabbit holes start.
"Biotech / bioscience / bio medicinal research does not equal biological warfare..."
no it doesn't, however, those in power are using some very careful language - some very very careful and contrived language... from a starting point of flat out denial...
again...
do you think wuhan lab was totally free of biological weapons research?
be it offensive, or for 'defense'...
i think we both know the MIC's across the world have been quite groundbreaking across the world in terms of 'research', where quite often sinister applications have actually found wider use for good
its not necessarily all black and white 'good and evil'... but the modern system requires such a perverse level of secrecy where the lines are so blurred and the risk levels so high...
it is evil
(for want of a better word)
Septic Tanks are going to Septic Tank