Climate Change
Supafreak wrote:indo-dreaming wrote:Supafreak wrote:Mass starvation, extinctions, disasters: the new IPCC report’s grim predictions, and why adaptation efforts are falling behind https://theconversation.com/mass-starvation-extinctions-disasters-the-ne...
Humans have adapted extremely well to natural disasters over the last 100 years despite the world population nearly quadrupling deaths from natural disasters are down 92%
"Why Deaths From Hurricanes And Other Natural Disasters Are Lower Than Ever"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2020/08/27/why-deaths-...
@indo , what about growing food , the poorer nations will struggle , do you think the rest of the world will feed them ? They don’t do it now .
Some areas farming will become harder and farmers will need to adapt and change what they grow, other areas generally in colder climates will become free of ice/snow or receive longer growing seasons.
We have also already seen a greening effect from satellite pics from increased C02 levels.
With any change there is negatives and positives, although okay the negatives might outweigh the positives(i believe they do in food production), but just saying it's not all doom and gloom.
Sorry im just an optimist.
Info sounding very much like this guy .....
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/...
freeride76 wrote:I don't see them having any choice in the matter around here.
if you can't afford million dollar plus property (still at risk from climate change), where can you go?
Can't relocate the entire Northern Rivers.
Plus the whole world wants to live here.
It’s a shambles and one that river mangers are well familiar with dealing with for decades. Forced sale of frontage owners with a history and exposures to flooding vs endless buckets of taxpayer cash to protect their assets. The obvious cheaper solution is not the political preference or to date option.
Of course whether it’s coastal or inland the resistance of (eg collaroy) many property owners exposed to flooding and inundation won’t accept anything but current market value or value of their original purchase (whichever is highest) if they are forced to sell. And they hope for short memories when they do sell.
The solution is difficult expensive and litigious yet fathomable better and cheaper then doing nothing.
Any ideas how many times machines have been out for maintenance to the collaroy wall since it was built and what that looks like in cash?
This is not victim blaming. The vulture activity and collusion of developers real estate and corrupt councillors coupled with general ignorance and faith from community in thinking a council approved lot as their residence is fit and safe is disgusting. Still many knew or should have known the risk. Some in a sense had no choice.
Where are the single Mums going to live who got priced out of the coast?
the nurses, teachers, workers etc etc.
If they can't live in Lismore, are we going to build tent cities and bus them to the hospitals?
This will take massive nation building.
yes it will. and its exactly the conversation we should've started having 30years ago.
better now then never
Yeah exactly Steve, the ones affected most have been the ones pushed out of the bigger towns thanks to the rental and housing crises. So heavy.
~ NEED ESSENTIALS ~
Today they are passing on Profits to Flood Victims
Good work Ryan Scanlon.
Thinking outside the box.
Timber shortage=grow hemp in marginal land to use as building material, stronger than steel.
don't rebuild houses, when houses are next to each other, build unit complex with first two stories car spaces/ water storage-height limit 6-10 stories.
improve eco friendly public transport so people don't need cars all the time.
where possible, plant hemp, fibrous vegetation near catchments so waters flows slower in times of heavy flow.
Currently 7 properties in street behind me vacant, airbnb, holiday homes- whilst people are homeless????
So all this physical stuff useless unless there is a change in awareness. Note, memo to Earthlings, you do realise everything is energy and feedback loops of energy interacting with itself, when Fear (greed, mistrust, deceit, anger, fear of death/sickness etc)is the base frequency, a certain type of feedback loop(outcome/consequence)is set in play. The Covid fears, anger, lockdowns and non vaccinated vs the vaccinated division had to play out somehow. You can manipulate this energy by mass gathered intention in the best interests of all. Yep, I know way outside the box that one, but true nonetheless. Planet Earth and it's "natural disasters" are energies in motion just as humans are continually individually and collectively transmitting a wildly assortment of e-motions, our media, our entertainments, our actions clearly demonstrate it's rarely peaceful. But that's just my perspective.
My wife was in a local clothes shop on Saturday and the owner was banging on to her friend about how the government (which one I don’t know) have manipulated the weather to cause these floods to stop the next convoy to Canberra. My wife giggled and got accused of insinuating the owner was crazy. This is the level of stupidity of some amongst us. Not to mention the sheer lack of understanding of the situation and empathy for for the thousands of flood victims. Class act that one.
I read that as well Seeds, was shared to me, fuck it makes me angry! When people don't understand simple meteorology like what developing thunderstorms look like on the radar and why this event occurred.
I’m just so baffled by it. COVID has exposed some serious nutters amongst us. I’m not talking about your Burlieghs or Blowins that have health concerns about it and vaccines. It’s the QAnon type crazies and what they believe.
The suggestion that CC is responsible for the heavy rain is laughable. Most of you guys are only too happy to deride and pour scorn on Christians believing in a 'sky fairy' but at the same time earnestly believe that every drought, flood, bushfire and famine is a result of an intangible, mystical concept that no one can quantify. What's the difference?
Well I think there’s quite a lot of scientific studies that allude to it’s reality. I don’t see anything tangible that religion gives us to state otherwise. Why isn’t climate change just part of gods plan for you lot? Why deny it’s happening at all?
Cockee wrote:What's the difference?
Probably the ability to measure the gradual increase of carbon, then hypothesise the results of a carbon increase, then observe the hypotheses coming to pass.
Cockee, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, and with the warmer sea surface temperatures they are also feeding more energy and moisture into the atmosphere. To get such radical totals so far south in southern NSW is amplified by the record sea surface temperatures recorded offshore.
Yep.
As we become more aware of this heating plus how it adds to the Indian Ocean dipole, la Nina's, la Nino's SAMS and JMO interactions on Australia's Climate and weather, let us hope that our policy makers put more effort and funding into future planning. Gregg Braden had an interesting video about patterns and their repetition and based on the maths it pretty much predicted Covid happening based on prior Pandemics including the Spanish flu in 1915.
It would be interesting to see if there was an Algorithm that used all possible flood data, including core sampling to see if there is a pattern that can be anticipated. We all know the weather and our Climate is a very dynamic thing, is there patterns or is it chaotic, maybe both. Sure help a lot of people if we could help them before, rather than after.
Jesus
wept
Cockee wrote:The suggestion that CC is responsible for the heavy rain is laughable. Most of you guys are only too happy to deride and pour scorn on Christians believing in a 'sky fairy' but at the same time earnestly believe that every drought, flood, bushfire and famine is a result of an intangible, mystical concept that no one can quantify. What's the difference?
Although i get your frustration with any and every weather event instantly being linked directly to climate change, and a type of attitude that we never had events like this in the past.
I think you have to accept that they do seem to be getting more regular and more severe, from a simpleton view it does seem like CC is a factor.
But it was still interesting and actually refreshing though to see this article the other day being rather pragmatic and not blindly overhyping things like many media outlets and saying.
"Climate change doesn’t tell the whole story, as extreme rainfall can occur for a variety of reasons. What’s more, it’s too soon to officially state whether this event is directly linked to climate change, as this would require a formal event attribution study. This can take months or years to produce."
And then latter in the article
"Disentangling the role of climate change
When it comes to understanding the role of human-induced climate change in extreme events, there is the temptation to ask the wrong question: “did climate change cause this event?”
Since any extreme event is always a manifestation of climate variability, large weather systems, local-scale weather and climate change, it’s impossible to categorically answer this question with a simple “yes” or “no”.
Instead, the question we should be asking is “did climate change contribute to this event?”
Well, firstly, there has actually been a slight decrease in summer rainfall in southeast Queensland and northeast NSW since the mid-20th century. But, there’s very high variability in rainfall for this region, and La Niña – a natural climate phenonenon associated with wetter weather – often brings flooding to this area, as we saw in 2010/2011 and in the 1970s.
Indeed, the effect of La Niña (and its counterpart El Niño, associated with drier weather) makes identifying a climate change-related trend more difficult. In other words, while a human-induced climate change signal may be present, the naturally high variability makes it hard to spot.
The atmosphere can hold approximately 7% more moisture for every degree Celsius of global warming. However, we also need the right weather systems in place to trigger the release of moisture from the air and cause extreme rainfall. The climate change effect on these systems is uncertain."
The whole article is a good read
https://theconversation.com/one-of-the-most-extreme-disasters-in-colonia...
I'm so tired of the human-caused/not human-caused climate change debate. For some things, it doesn't even matter. The fact is you need a strong emergency response system whichever might be the case.
Read somewhere the other day, apologies if here. 'Whether you believe in climate change or not doesn't matter, the insurance companies do ...'
Yes, exactly. The whole thing is a circus, to be honest. As the electric car argument; getting rid of dirty fuel, reducing noise pollution, and ensuring our transportation is energy independent from foreign countries is a huge benefit. In my opinion, you don't even need climate change to push for this transition. That's an extra cherry on the cake.
Just look at how dirty the air is in Jakarta, the pollution danger signs are always in the red....banning two stroke ojeks and tuk tuks is one thing thats helped reduce the pollution there..no need to mention climate change as there are many benefits to reducing pollution.
I been inviting you all here for years now.
Measurement of climate data has been occurring for a couple of centuries (at best) in Australia. Given the aborigines were able to come to Australia during an Ice Age 60000 years ago suggests attempts to deduce CC from a pumpteenth of the inhabited history of this country is absurd.
What do you do for a living cockee?
New record..
Carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels set a new *record high* in February 2022 - 419.28 ppm
— Zack Labe (@ZLabe) March 9, 2022
10 years ago February averaged ~394 ppm
+ Data (@NOAA_ESRL): https://t.co/81JQawgYYZ pic.twitter.com/V648lEIKnJ
@Craig, what does CAPE mean. BOM bloke in video showed potential for storms, and said CAPE was high???
Ocean/atmospheric moisture levels?
CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. It's a measurement for how much energy is in the atmosphere, for storm development etc.
Thanks Ben. We didn't get much last night, and based on how hot and humid it was, I thought we were going to get smashed.
Apparently a warning of this unpredictable weather was given several months ago: https://www.michaelwest.com.au/government-incompetence-and-lack-of-plann...
I hope no one ever attacks us. We would have no chance, we can't even manage well-known risks in our country.
Damn government should have planned ahead and put out a big umbrella.
indo-dreaming wrote:Damn government should have planned ahead and put out a big umbrella.
Plan for the worst, expect the best.
All that Covid modeling could have been put to better use for flood modeling and then logistical preparation, dry runs in case the worst happened. Thats what happens in the commercial world (mostly); the public sec toris rather hopeless at planning and preparation. (No votes in it if it doesnt happen right ?).
“....the public secotr is rather hopeless at planning and preparation....”
That’s true but only because the LNP has deliberately and systematically gutted the public service for decades but especially so the last 9 years.
True Guy, public sector bashing, a favourite Australian sport. Uninformed, ignorant, totally Australian.
The public sector does what the politicians allow it to. For the last 9 years that has been ‘very little’.
batfink wrote:True Guy, public sector bashing, a favourite Australian sport. Uninformed, ignorant, totally Australian.
The public sector does what the politicians allow it to. For the last 9 years that has been ‘very little’.
Public sector performance should be scrutinised just as all job performance is. National sport or not. If you do your job well most of the time you have nothing to be worried about. If your work is performance poor, maybe it's time to improve or take another job. Excuses or not. Outcomes and satisfaction are telling to the wider public who often work with the public sector. The public sector is meant to deliver better outcomes and on the whole they do. It's the ones that fail time and time again in the face of every day Australians that need to be reworked to some extent. How did we get here? We know how we got here.
As per this report number of public sector employees in Australia is more than 2 million. It consistently grew over the years. In summary, nearly 1 out of 5 people working in Australia work in the public sector:
"Overall the share of public employment has been largely stable over time, at approximately 17% of total employment."
There was a slight drop in 2019-2020 due to LGA employment drop:
"However, overall public employment growth was negative over 2019-20 at -0.3%, with notable growth in Commonwealth Government employment (1.6%) offset by reduced employment by the States (-0.1%) and significant reductions by Local Councils (-4.1%). Many local councils are facing significant fallout from the Coronavirus Pandemic due to rates arrears."
There are also obvious benefits in being in the public sector:
"Despite the decline in overall employment, Australia’s public sector wages bill grew by 4.3% over 2019-20 (4.6% on a per employee basis) to $174.1 billion. This was well in excess of overall wages growth (1.8% pa) and inflation (0.3% pa) over the same period."
https://atlasurbaneconomics.com/service/public-sector-employment-in-aust...
So what does everyone think about the source of the issue? For example, do we have too many admins and not enough frontline staff? Or our managers are suck and are not competent for the job? Or do we need to increase overall public sector employment? It's approaching 1 in 5 across the workforce. What should it be, 1 in 3? I'm genuinely interested in some ideas that people might share about this.
I work at the mushroom level of a state’s public service department. We are way too top heavy in management. I feel they spend too much time having meetings and too little time actually doing anything. My direct superior is a completely hopeless waste of public funds. Less but more efficient management and more boots on the ground to deliver services.
In other news up in Gympie they are starting to think about a different direction after this flood. Possible? I don’t know?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-10/calls-to-relocate-gympie-cbd-afte...
Oh and Scomo was in Gympie yesterday. Went to the meat works that got flooded for some pics but just as in Lismore avoided the public flood victims like the plague
"... The public sector is meant to deliver better outcomes and on the whole they do. It's the ones that fail time and time again in the face of every day Australians that need to be reworked to some extent ..."
@Robwilliams, can you expand on this, give examples of what you see as failures.
@flollo, referencing a business that seems to be an outsourcing agency for formally public sector planning functions isn't exactly balanced when trying to establish PS numbers.
Whatever the real numbers in the PS the real issue is the loss of "corporate knowledge" caused by efficiency cuts, the cutting of red tape, forced redundancies blah blah since Howard's time. Hawke/Keating forced efficiency dividends on the PS for each and every year which in the end resulted in a pretty lean and efficient PS. The real fun started under Howard where functions like Aged Care (how did that go during COVID??) and Child Care were effectively privatised and the public servants supporting those programs sacked or redeployed into the private sector at salaries approaching x2 previous paid!! Remember Abbott's "cutting red tape" program? well, that resulted in 100s and 100s of jobs lost in each of the ATO, ACCC and ASIC and those "financial regulator" agencies were the ones most heavily criticised in the Banking Royal Commission for not keeping the banks honest. Want to know where the big accounting firms get their staff from to advise clients about tax avoidance? The ATO that's where!
I could go on and on with example after example of how the PS has been hollowed out and functions privatised to the detriment of required service delivery but its all part of the small govt/tax lie of a certain side of politics, you know.
@GuySmiley the source is clearly highlighted on the page:
Source: ABS (2020). Employment and Earnings, Public Sector, Australia, 2019-20. ABS, Canberra.
So are we not trusting the official ABS numbers?
ABS figures would be trustworthy
ABS another agency hollowed out, remember the criticism of the last census? hard to do the required job with antiquated software and less staff.
GuySmiley wrote:"... The public sector is meant to deliver better outcomes and on the whole they do. It's the ones that fail time and time again in the face of every day Australians that need to be reworked to some extent ..."
@Robwilliams, can you expand on this, give examples of what you see as failures.
@flollo, referencing a business that seems to be an outsourcing agency for formally public sector planning functions isn't exactly balanced when trying to establish PS numbers.
Whatever the real numbers in the PS the real issue is the loss of "corporate knowledge" caused by efficiency cuts, the cutting of red tape, forced redundancies blah blah since Howard's time. Hawke/Keating forced efficiency dividends on the PS for each and every year which in the end resulted in a pretty lean and efficient PS. The real fun started under Howard where functions like Aged Care (how did that go during COVID??) and Child Care were effectively privatised and the public servants supporting those programs sacked or redeployed into the private sector at salaries approaching x2 previous paid!! Remember Abbott's "cutting red tape" program? well, that resulted in 100s and 100s of jobs lost in each of the ATO, ACCC and ASIC and those "financial regulator" agencies were the ones most heavily criticised in the Banking Royal Commission for not keeping the banks honest. Want to know where the big accounting firms get their staff from to advise clients about tax avoidance? The ATO that's where!
I could go on and on with example after example of how the PS has been hollowed out and functions privatised to the detriment of required service delivery but its all part of the small govt/tax lie of a certain side of politics, you know.
health sector. great people doing amazing things. they know from the inside of how they have been neglected, used and abused.
emergency services. same as above
property planning, local and government.
What are the issues you see?
They are in every sector. Failure to expand to positive outcomes at the expense of allot of money. Leadership is responsible for decisions at the end of the day. Show utes don't save lives, neither do hair cuts or T shirts. The experience is there, the knowledge, the past failures should have been learn't from. Often experience and science is neglected. We have so much at our finger tips with in our local communities.
Plenty of incapable people siting tidily in government jobs till retirement. Why would you rock the boat if you are nicely feathering your nest. No need for change. Those that do are relegated or leave on own terms. Nothing really changes. If you remove systems that are proven and replace them with weaker outcomes or performance you fail. . We have countless knowledge, experience, people willing to rectify or bring positive change. Why are those who hinder advancement standing in the way when they have been proven ill equipped or incompetent.
So many people have dealt with rubbish from the top down.
Removing rural fire sirens from stations to be replaced with mobile phone reception in the face of emergencies, which often doesn't work is a recipe for disaster and a waste of money. who makes these decisions, why are councils hiding their decision making from public? Is it to protect them from being called our for poor practice or incompetence at the cost to the tax payer. Again not attacking the public sector just asking wtf is up with competent decision making in regards to us all. If it's broken you fix it. But you don't a half assed job and expect it to last or perform under pressure. The signs have been evident, no point in ignoring them when we bear the brunt of consequence. Why add to the problems if we can rectify them? But what the fuck do I know.
seeds wrote:In other news up in Gympie they are starting to think about a different direction after this flood. Possible? I don’t know?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-10/calls-to-relocate-gympie-cbd-afte...Oh and Scomo was in Gympie yesterday. Went to the meat works that got flooded for some pics but just as in Lismore avoided the public flood victims like the plague
Because he's a weak prick that didn't learn from his first indiscretion. Actually it's insulting to those suffering. Take those mole skins and fuck off back to Canberra. Weak leaders deserve the anger and resent they acquire. He's comfortable in his neglect. Safe in his constituents. He's a joke.
“ ... Plenty of incapable people siting tidily in government jobs till retirement. Why would you rock the boat if you are nicely feathering your nest. No need for change.....”
I find it difficult to believe this still happens much in the public service, all that ended long ago. You have specific examples you can quote?
Guy my comment above re my manager. Exactly this
Ps has been the same for over a decade
Go into any public service sector and ask for your self. Real people real anserw's. Different issues same old problem. Not hard to believe. Not hard to see. They can quote the issues they face if they are brave honest enough. Women usually are upfront and don't skirt the issues they face. You will find what you are looking for wether I supply it or not. Any public sector under strain. Start with health. Have a good hard look. Listen and ask why are they saying this? Ask them why they think the situations is as it is. They live under it daily. Some have worked amongst it for years. I also find it hard to believe but fact is stranger than fiction right. Is government stupidity supplied with this job? Or learn't on the job? Again not an attack on all public sector workers. Can I dig up a road twice to put services in and be thought of as well planned at the expense of the tax payer? Just a regular oversight or missed opportunity? Electricity and water can be put in roughly the same time of projects progression. We are not going to mars. Show me something different and I will support it if carries the best interest of the community it serves. Spending of allocated budget in regards to securing equal or greater budget next financial term isn't progress if it isn't used to it's fullest or squandered. (think new signs which say the same as last year different colours, text etc.) We are better than this.
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