COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

udo's picture
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udo Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 9:48am
Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 12:42pm

.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 1:16pm

Yeah wow tbb

Said at the start of this it would be a golden age for personal air travel. Sea travel too, seeing as the thing isn't going away as fast as the cruise passengers perhaps wish

http://www.seriouslytravel.com/why-not-a-private-yacht-for-your-honeymoon/

https://www.lifeofsailing.com/post/10-best-sailboats-for-solo-sailing

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velocityjohnno Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 1:19pm

Combine both and hop from atoll to atoll on a modest budget, covid free

http://republicseabee.com/

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burleigh Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 2:38pm
udo wrote:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-19/pauline-hanson-tests-positive-to-...

Oh no, she's not vaccinated either. Lets see if she gets sicker than our triple whacked Roadkill.

My money is she wont, her immune system will fight it off, just like billions of other humans when you let your body do its work.

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udo Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 2:48pm

Has been taking Ivermectin.

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truebluebasher Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 3:55pm

Salute & Dedication to Oz Aged Care Frontline

Hard to believe on election eve Scomo has done a bunk on Frontline + most are denied Voting access.
Guardian : "4 mths on & 70% of Aged Care workers yet to get Scomo's promised $800 Pandemic pay!"
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/31/aged-care-workers...

Just another despicable lie & piss poor backhander to Oz Frontline in hour of need ...the PM is a grub!
Never had any intention of coming good...another lowest of low acts from Oz # 1 Bully!

Just 20% received half = $400 & only 2.7% received whole = $800 payment.
Now the PM is trying to wriggle outta measly Frontline handout...no God can save this piece of Shit!

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/17/over-70-of-austra...

Oz Age Care Deaths 2020 (686) > 2021 (231) > 2022 (1,418)

Covid wave set is an exclusive dedicated to Oz Frontline

~~/C...[ Delta )
Homes 221 > Outbreaks 306 (138.5%) or 1/15.1 [+] Staff 667 > Residents 1,355
Deaths 172 = 12.7% patient death rate / All 8.5% +(17% of Oz total 1,075 deaths).

~~/C...[Omicron)
Homes 1627 > Outbreaks 2,612 (160.5%) or 1/8.3 [+] Staff 16,949 > Residents 14,502
Deaths 859 = 6% patient death rate / All 2.7% + (35% of Oz total 2,814 deaths).

~~/C~~{Stealth)
Homes 334 > Outbreaks 1,381 (413.5%) or 1/3.7 [+] Staff 15,186 > Residents 21,891
Deaths *629 = 3% patient death rate / All 1.7% (Oz 1.07%)+ (21.7% of Oz total 2,893 deaths)
(News : *Age Care 85-90 d/wk > 3 wks overtake Omicron as has Oz Stealth deaths already done!)

Right here right now is Oz Age Care biggest battle!

Key notes : Staff / Residents (All) Deaths are recorded as whole % shown.
tbb included Resident ( Patient) % deaths as a reliable secondary guide as near all deaths are residents. {R.I.P}
5th April 2020 55y/o Disability Nurse Sumith Premachandra was youngest to die from Covid in Victoria!
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/our-lives-will-never-be-the-...
28th Nov 2021 Nurse Gillian (Jill) Dempsey died from Covid in Victoria (Fully Vaxed + PPE)
https://www.agedcareinsite.com.au/2021/12/first-australian-hospital-nurs...

Data anomalies :
(A/C Homes) Comparison > April Canada 61% Homes [+] (vs) Oz 89% Homes [+]
Infections into Homes change with seasonal access > Omicron spread infectious Xmas cheer!
Without travel bugs > Off Season Stealth is comfortable chewing thru a steady 40-50 homes/wk.

(Outbreaks) With a 1/3.7 strike rate, you don't wanna invite Stealth into yer Home
Less seasonal access into Care Homes limits Stealth to a measly 200 Age Care outbreaks/wk.

Infection rate keeps increasing with each Vax mutated VOC.
[+] Stealth Staff are increasing from 1,000 > 2,000 week & will surpass Omicron total in 2 weeks.
There is only record upward infection in both Staff & Residents 1/15.1[+] > 1/8.3[+] > 1/3.7[+]
Quite likely that 25% are currently being infected...reason for this dedication...Tough Workplace!
Current (Active Cases) 5,176 [+] Staff + 7,568 [+] Residents.

Age Care Deaths (% of National Deaths)
Jan 2022 US 23% > April 2022 Canada 44% > Oz (d)17% (o)35% (s)21.7% (Rising Fast)

( Virus Death Rate ) (d) 12.7% > (o) 6% > (s) 3%
Explanation! Covid kills from frail elderly downward thru years in aged care setting.
Each wave therefore will have less frail elderly victims driving the death rate down.
tbb compiles Data that shows less 100 > 90y/o appear in deaths as there are less to die! (Endangered!)
Culture Shock the world over losing Story Tellers & cultural ties...depriving untold generations.

1/2/3 Vax may offer protection but increases infectious VOCs increasing patients increasing deaths.
As Rollout now unearths Unvaxed Palliative out/patients the unvaxed death rate increases.
Meaning... most remaining unvaxed are seriously ill & more likely to die from Vax or Covid.
tbb lives in this group & knows of others who also still wear masks...soon a majority of Unvaxed!
The age of Vaxed deaths decreases as age of unvaxed deaths increases...
(Creating a Statistical Anomaly!)
Experts will promptly point to their successful Vax but Rollout conducts the shifts as tbb pointed out.
Weather / Rollout / VOC / Masks are much larger impact than lesser Vax efficacy %.
eg: tbb can board most transit unvaxed but can't board any without mandated Mask! (#1Mask vs Vax?)

In their Own Words
https://lens.monash.edu/@coronavirus-articles/2022/04/20/1384579/in-thei...

Age Care workers risk 25% chance of covid infection & Big Bully PM stole their tuck shop money!
tbb & many here support Age Care / Frontline workers Isolating Strike & the Right 2 Vote!

AEC :
"Each Election AEC Vote Teams visit Aged Care where people are not able to get to a polling place...
We have engaged with Health Authorities and Mobile Voting Teams will NOT be able to visit Aged care facilities or any hospitals given the higher Covid 19 risk in these settings!"
AEC advise Postal Vote or 25% infected Staff might wanna Vote in Person @ 2-10% [+] AEC Booth.
https://www.aec.gov.au/election/mobile-voting.htm

https://www.australianageingagenda.com.au/facility-operations/aged-care-...
https://www.australianageingagenda.com.au/facility-operations/aged-care-...

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velocityjohnno Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 5:05pm

Oz Age Care Deaths 2020 (686) > 2021 (231) > 2022 (1,418)

Far more deaths since they let it rip.

"( Virus Death Rate ) (d) 12.7% > (o) 6% > (s) 3%
Explanation! Covid kills from frail elderly downward thru years in aged care setting.
Each wave therefore will have less frail elderly victims driving the death rate down.
tbb compiles Data that shows less 100 > 90y/o appear in deaths as there are less to die! (Endangered!)
Culture Shock the world over losing Story Tellers & cultural ties...depriving untold generations."

That's quite sad, I hadn't considered the Story Teller aspect. Take care TBB.

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burleigh Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 5:58pm

A virus that kills the already half dead people.
Let’s vaccinate children.

Make it make sence

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udo Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 6:25pm
burleigh's picture
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burleigh Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 7:11pm
udo wrote:

Seems to be Common
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/countries-va...

Commonly disgusting. And that proves my point Udo.
Thanks

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Supafreak Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 7:19pm

So whatever happened to Pfizer changing there mRNA vaccines to better treat different varients ?

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burleigh Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 8:00pm
Supafreak wrote:

So whatever happened to Pfizer changing there mRNA vaccines to better treat different varients ?

No doubt it will be all over the news after the election.

Get ready for the fear to be pushed hard for the booster ++ omicron edition

But will roadkill line up again?

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Supafreak Friday, 20 May 2022 at 11:55am

So what’s the focus after the election ? Covid and the new varient or monkey pox or the new candidate ……….global famine .

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Goofy4 Friday, 20 May 2022 at 12:42pm

'So what’s the focus after the election ? Covid and the new varient or monkey pox or the new candidate ……….global famine ."

What is "global famine" ? Haven't ever heard of a global famine before - can you set me straight on this? Worked for Oxfam - then Community Aid Abroad on the Ethiopian famine in '84 - mate, somethings you can't ever unsee - was there a global famine I've not heard of??

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Supafreak Friday, 20 May 2022 at 12:58pm

@Goofy4 , do a quick google search mate , your page should light up for 2022 , blaming partly all the grain unable to be exported from Ukraine , plenty of articles on world food shortages. https://reliefweb.int/report/world/global-report-food-crises-2022 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/19/ukraine-war-has-stoked-glo...

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Goofy4 Friday, 20 May 2022 at 1:30pm

Thanks for the link - was conversant with this issue - was misinterpreting your reference to global famine as a literal world-wide famine.......

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Supafreak Friday, 20 May 2022 at 1:38pm
Goofy4 wrote:

Thanks for the link - was conversant with this issue - was misinterpreting your reference to global famine as a literal world-wide famine.......

I was watching a report on Ukraine this morning and it was pointing out all the crops that would be ready in a month but no where to stock it as they can’t move current stock .

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burleigh Friday, 20 May 2022 at 2:08pm

Quick, lock us up, make small business bankrupt, mandate a vaccine. A new killer has landed in Australia……. Lol
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10835815/amp/Monkeypox-Australi...

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Stok Friday, 20 May 2022 at 4:24pm

Mate, only really plebs even bother clicking through to that trash site.

It's all clickbait and poorly constructed articles designed either to sell product, or to outrage the dull minded - or both.

udo's picture
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udo Friday, 20 May 2022 at 4:44pm
burleigh's picture
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burleigh Friday, 20 May 2022 at 5:07pm
Stok wrote:

Mate, only really plebs even bother clicking through to that trash site.

It's all clickbait and poorly constructed articles designed either to sell product, or to outrage the dull minded - or both.

Sorry princess, here’s one from the government funded abc.
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/101084864

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Saturday, 21 May 2022 at 8:22am

Weird thing this Covid.

Over a week ago my daughter got it from school, my daughter got nothing more than a few sniffles one night and isolated for a week but is now back at school Covid free. (she had one jab)

My wife got it from daughter and is now at day six but test are now showing Covid free from day five but she will still isolate and is wearing mask, she got a bit fluey and cough, tired ect but nothing too bad (she had both jabs and booster)

My boy just over 1.5 year old didn't get it despite him being super clingy with my wife.

And me amazingly even though i took very little precautions and thought id get it for sure i didn't get it???

I do have to say I'm more convinced now about mask my wife and daughter wore mask when possible to stop me and my boy getting it and seemed to work.

And im also more convinced about the booster too, my wife didn't get half as sick as my friends who didnt have boosters and her line on test started disappearing much more quickly than my daughters.

And who knows maybe the booster helped me too from avoiding getting it.

Either way having the booster sure didn't hurt, i think I'm more likely now to get a booster say once a year before an Indo trip.

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flollo Saturday, 21 May 2022 at 8:45am

There is a wave of flu going around, I got it last week and it’s worse than covid. I got a flu shot so maybe it helps with not feeling too bad but still, it’s really annoying with persistent cough. Some are even calling for mask wearing, every news outlet is writing about it.

https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/18/calls-for-mask-we...

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burleigh Saturday, 21 May 2022 at 8:54am
indo-dreaming wrote:

Weird thing this Covid.

Over a week ago my daughter got it from school, my daughter got nothing more than a few sniffles one night and isolated for a week but is now back at school Covid free. (she had one jab)

My wife got it from daughter and is now at day six but test are now showing Covid free from day five but she will still isolate and is wearing mask, she got a bit fluey and cough, tired ect but nothing too bad (she had both jabs and booster)

My boy just over 1.5 year old didn't get it despite him being super clingy with my wife.

And me amazingly even though i took very little precautions and thought id get it for sure i didn't get it???

I do have to say I'm more convinced now about mask my wife and daughter wore mask when possible to stop me and my boy getting it and seemed to work.

And im also more convinced about the booster too, my wife didn't get half as sick as my friends who didnt have boosters and her line on test started disappearing much more quickly than my daughters.

And who knows maybe the booster helped me too from avoiding getting it.

Either way having the booster sure didn't hurt, i think I'm more likely now to get a booster say once a year before an Indo trip.

Lol

Ask roadkill How his booster helped him. How about letting your immune system do it’s job?

Fucking yearly boosters. Lol

What about people that have had no jabs? They ain’t getting any sicker than the jabbed

What are you afraid of?

shortenism's picture
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shortenism Saturday, 21 May 2022 at 10:11am

Indo, sadly your confused perspective is prevalent. The booster, like the two before it has done nothing but confuse your mind and your body’s ability to accept and deal with dis-ease.

JQ's picture
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JQ Saturday, 21 May 2022 at 11:25am
shortenism wrote:

Indo, sadly your confused perspective is prevalent. The booster, like the two before it has done nothing but confuse your mind and your body’s ability to accept and deal with dis-ease.

Categorically false.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Saturday, 21 May 2022 at 11:48am

Hello Roadkill? Very quiet since your triple whacked covid nightmare……… it’s almost like it didn’t work.

Where are you?

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monkeyboy Saturday, 21 May 2022 at 12:03pm

Shortly we may have to change the name of this thread to: "Monkeypox etc etc".

Heaven forbid but what else are the papers going to print after the erection ?

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AndyM Saturday, 21 May 2022 at 12:39pm

“The Press” can stick it fair up their date.

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burleigh Saturday, 21 May 2022 at 3:11pm

No Australian media taking the monkeypox stories today. Saving them all for tomorrow with the new government FEAR campaign.

Maybe big pharma can combine Covid, Flu & MonkeyPox into one package. Do you get a discount for 3?

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burleigh Saturday, 21 May 2022 at 3:35pm
JQ wrote:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/20/who-monkeypox-warning-case...

https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/nsw-health-identifies-prob...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-20/monkeypox-case-in-sydney-and-melb...

Careful there burleigh, wouldn't want reality to intrude on your fantasy.

1 out of 3 links are from today.

Congratulations you’re a 1/3 correct. But unfortunately 2/3 stupid. A typical side effect from a covid booster shot

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Saturday, 21 May 2022 at 4:48pm
shortenism wrote:

Indo, sadly your confused perspective is prevalent. The booster, like the two before it has done nothing but confuse your mind and your body’s ability to accept and deal with dis-ease.

All the scientific evidence evidence goes against this and my personal experience with family members and friends goes against this.

It's fine to be skeptical but sometimes the evidence is too hard to ignore.

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JQ Saturday, 21 May 2022 at 5:02pm
burleigh wrote:
JQ wrote:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/20/who-monkeypox-warning-case...

https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/nsw-health-identifies-prob...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-20/monkeypox-case-in-sydney-and-melb...

Careful there burleigh, wouldn't want reality to intrude on your fantasy.

1 out of 3 links are from today.

Congratulations you’re a 1/3 correct. But unfortunately 2/3 stupid. A typical side effect from a covid booster shot

Oh boohoo burliegh, all 3 are news stories, prominently published on mainstream Australian media today.

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batfink Saturday, 21 May 2022 at 6:32pm

Monkey pox, at this stage not actually life threatening, but it may disfigure you a bit. Can see the instagram influencers telling everyone they have to lock everyone down, immediately.

Could be hilarious.

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Roadkill Sunday, 22 May 2022 at 12:05pm

3 weeks and 4/5 days in and starting to breath better, no real coughing no real breathlessness…no real struggle to breath…sightly tired..all and all on the mend. Probably at 95% breathing wise. Dr says I should have gone on paxlovid at the onset.

Hopefully I can go for a surf soon…will be interesting to see how some exertion will be.

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burleigh Sunday, 22 May 2022 at 12:50pm
Roadkill wrote:

3 weeks and 4/5 days in and starting to breath better, no real coughing no real breathlessness…no real struggle to breath…sightly tired..all and all on the mend. Probably at 95% breathing wise. Dr says I should have gone on paxlovid at the onset.

Hopefully I can go for a surf soon…will be interesting to see how some exertion will be.

Thanks for your honesty roadkill. Are you one of those nut jobs who thank science and your three whacks or do you believe that you’ve been part of the world biggest scam?

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poo-man Sunday, 22 May 2022 at 5:56pm

It's really interesting how different people are affected differently. I've been keeping a running tally of all those that I've come across and how they have described their experience with Omicron as opposed to the worst cold or flu they've ever had out of 10. Most are saying it's between a 4 and a 7 and some of the worst that I've seen have been among the boosted. My workplace has around 200 staff and from what I've heard we've had around 70% who have had it now. And our HR reported similar results to my anecdotal ones. My own experience would have been lucky to be a 3 out of 10 compared to my worst cold ever. So it just seems that there's no real rhyme or reason to outcomes and despite being told that getting vaccinated was the key to not getting badly ill, that's not the outcome that I've observed. In fact it's shifted my own viewpoint quite markedly in the last few months. I know TBB is pulling data from everywhere and while it's quite hard to understand at times there's some gems in there. In fact it's hard to deny the NZ numbers now where the boosted are over represented in hospitalisations and new cases. How is that not a big story or does it just get buried because it doesn't suit? I know at some point the story was that the unvaccinated weren't reporting their cases but if you don't report you can't get the wage subsidy so it's not that. So I'd love it if some organisation or students would survey outcomes to get a scientific read on whether the vaccination really made that much difference with Omicron? I know it clearly made a difference with Delta but Omicron looks a completely different story. Although I knew most of the Raglan crew that got Delta and that didn't affect anyone too badly either.

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icandig Sunday, 22 May 2022 at 8:11pm

I got smashed by it. My wife too. My 17 y/o son was untouched despite being a very close contact during our most infectious period. We were all triple vaxed. I know some unvaxed people who've had it with milder symptoms than me. I also know vaxed people who it barely touched and some worse than me. Not a conspiracy theorist nor an anti vaxer, but it sure is curios. Strange beast this thing.

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tubeshooter Sunday, 22 May 2022 at 8:32pm

It's weird alright. I've been a close contact of several people who've had it ,badly . Some more than once. And mostly in the last 3 months.
After being informed by these people I had the regular RAT tests and all went negative.
Double vaxxed in Oct ,,no booster.

Same with the cold or flu. I've barely had a sniffle in the last few decades. Never had a flu shot.
The only flu I remember getting was back in my early 20's , apparently from a foreign bug brought to town on a backpackers tour bus stop. Totally laid me out , ever since then, nothing.

My sinuses don't really like the first dry westerlies of the season but that's about it. A couple of floggings in the surf and the ensuing 'tap nose' remedies that.

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wax24 Sunday, 22 May 2022 at 11:44pm

I have been super exposed to it for two years. Workin in hospital. Gowned up to enter the Covid unit more times than i can count. Haven't got it yet. I know people who have and it was nothing. Both vaxxed and unvaxxed. I know a handful who sadly have passed from it. A handful of coworkers have got it, a couple have twice. Two have passed away. I am vaxxed and boosted, but, i don't know if that has been a difference or not. I can't claim to have not gotten the flu since i was in my 20s, but i am not at all susceptible to it, and most seasons, it passes me by. I have not been worried for myself this whole time, even with all the constant exposure. (and i think i just jinxed myself. DAMN!)

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eat-your-vegies Monday, 23 May 2022 at 12:30am

Yep wax you just jinxed yourself ha ha
But thanks for all your help

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eat-your-vegies Monday, 23 May 2022 at 12:31am

Oops double post

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burleigh Monday, 23 May 2022 at 1:15pm

To every single one of you that didn’t question covid. You are to blame for this:

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/nation-calls-3w...

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wax24 Monday, 23 May 2022 at 1:56pm

Good read, Udo. Thanx.
E-Y-V..... i looked up "how to unjinx yourself." The first response i got was "go to the bathroom, and turn the hot water on til the mirror gets steamy. Then write your name 3x. Then read it aloud."
I dunno, lol, that seems like goin further down a rabbit hole.

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DudeSweetDudeSweet Tuesday, 24 May 2022 at 8:50am
udo wrote:

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/beijing-urges-millions-keep-working-...

Why is it supposed to sound more inappropriate, draconian and ridiculous than when we did it? It’s not. It’s just as out of control.