House prices
Article in todays Melbourne Paper suggests that Govt policy which gives more rights and “power” to renters may be inadvertently making things harder for tenants.Because it is driving landlords from the market, examples were the right to have pets, redecorate etc and the restrictions with regard to giving notice. The net outcome was less housing available to the marketplace.
nickca wrote:Article in todays Melbourne Paper suggests that Govt policy which gives more rights and “power” to renters may be inadvertently making things harder for tenants.Because it is driving landlords from the market, examples were the right to have pets, redecorate etc and the restrictions with regard to giving notice. The net outcome was less housing available to the marketplace.
It’s difficult to strike the right balance when the law assumes people of good faith will do the right thing but based on the last two years experience with the low life renters next door i favour fewer rights for tenants and their who gives a fuck landlords. Permanent owner occupier residents who have to put up with these scumbags should be the people with rights
nickca wrote:Article in todays Melbourne Paper suggests that Govt policy which gives more rights and “power” to renters may be inadvertently making things harder for tenants.Because it is driving landlords from the market, examples were the right to have pets, redecorate etc and the restrictions with regard to giving notice. The net outcome was less housing available to the marketplace.
standard disinfo fluff piece for the property development / investor interest groups.
Empathise with you GS, shit neighbours can turn things into a living hell.
And personally, I'd risk prosecution and make sure any potential tenant with a pet was excluded from consideration.
Welcome to NZ 2022:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/death-threats-and-abuse-whangarei-pensione...
PS, if you are not one of the 2% in NZ that speak Maori, Kainga Ora is Ministry of Housing.
Island Bay wrote:Welcome to NZ 2022:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/death-threats-and-abuse-whangarei-pensione...PS, if you are not one of the 2% in NZ that speak Maori, Kainga Ora is Ministry of Housing.
Yep that stuff is absolutely appalling and the Kainga Ora people are doing nothing about it. Why should low lifes ever be allowed to stay in a place if they abuse the privilege?
Where’s Jake the Muss when ya need him
I think Jake is the problem
Some interesting capital city house price graphs from Shane Oliver's twitter indicating that they are heavily impacted by lending standards and interest rates, and it seems that they've just had their worst monthly fall in at least 15 years.
gsco wrote:Some interesting capital city house price graphs from Shane Oliver's twitter indicating that they are heavily impacted by lending standards and interest rates, and it seems that they've just had their worst monthly fall in at least 15 years.
Theres a lot more downside to come in 2023 and beyond.
Ah ya beat me to it: 6.1% inflation, at 1.35% or whatever we're a bit behind it...
Fed concludes tonight, and a Group Of People In A Room are about to determine the next move for the global economy...
I present: Inflation spectacular: what happens when shit goes wrong:
Eg Sri Lanka - terrible mismanagement/corruption/booming through an overload of cheap debt sees the country run out of money. Last I heard inflation has gone from 12% up to 55%.
Here's a link for that inflation figure
https://metro.co.uk/2022/07/08/sri-lanka-combats-55-inflation-with-inter...
Next up Turkey: when faced with inflation, you a) lower rates and sack the head of your central bank. In event a) does not work, repeat a).
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-27/turkeys-bold-interest-rates-exper...
Third, creator of more trillionaires than any other country, Zimbabwe. Their suffering began long ago, and here is a move as they claw their way out of a decade of destruction after their currency hyperinflated. Hopefully the start of a better future for the Zimbabweans.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-25/zimbabwe-gold-coins-to-curb-infla...
And lastly, as I'm feeling didactic:
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." - Ludwig von Mises
Sad seeing Sri Lanka play out when you know the people deserve and want better. Exploited to ruin? Zim's a sad story of a country that never recovered it's soul from corruption from the top down. Mugabe ran his people into the ground through terror, neglect and offshore bank accounts and some help from outside influence. What was once the food bowl of Africa is a tyrants wreck. So many African countries have been fleeced by multinational companies that turn a blind eye to corruption to feather their nest. Sri Lanka is at a critical point in it's current history. Topple your tyrants.
Now watch the fed go .75 higher and the s&p rally off it. We’re through the looking glass, there’s no doubt.
Buy on the rumour, buy more on the news
Have a lookski at the yields charts on Aus 1 yr, 2yr, 3yr, 10yr on trading economics - notice anything??
You mean yields appear to have peaked and have started to fall recently (and coincidentally the share market has been going up over the same period)?
Pretty sure I also noticed some inversion in various yield curves recently..
Little drive around here confirmed all the houses that went to market last week had been sold during the week.
No slowdown here.
Neighbour's expecting somewhere around low 3's for his, dare say he'll go close.
Wet dream for the cashed up.
Sort of. I thought I saw heads and shoulders.
https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/calendar
the whole sidebar on the right is excellent, gives a good overview
You're right, a classical head and shoulders in say the 2Y yield:
It could be considered to have just broken through the "neckline" and thus be very bearish for the yield (bullish for the bond price).
I should have known to look for a technical analysis pattern, knowing that you're into this stuff..!
Yep you've got it. If you see lots of it at once, the predictive value of these can be quite high (let's make sure it completes properly here tho). I've got charts in old books with the same pattern forming and completing in stocks during the 1929 crash, we should remember that though human technology and society seem to change, human psychology not so much! Let's also remember whatever the bond yields fall, the RBA is still a long way short: an easy prediction would be for it all to meet 'somewhere in the middle'.
Edit: the other thing about these esoteric geek formations is you might see it today, but the effect of it will not be felt on the street for some months... must resist temptation to be yelling 'you're all doomed/saved!' into the crowds...
velocityjohnno wrote:I've got charts in old books with the same pattern forming and completing in stocks during the 1929 crash, we should remember that though human technology and society seem to change, human psychology not so much!
Do you interpret the above chart as another crash about to happen then?
I’m no bond expert. Far from it. But I always thought low bond yields meant the stock market rallied and high bond yields the stock markets dumped.
So based on my simple assessment it that head and shoulders pattern comes off then yield will dump which means stock market should pump?
That seems to have been the case quite strongly since mid April this year:
Blue is ASX200 and green is Aus govt 10yr bond yields.
Another rate rise just announced .5% that’s going to hurt a few
Hi Patrick I think Don and GSCO answered that one well, just note that the chart posted was bond yields, so inverse to the bond price. And bond markets are a different beast to stock markets if you meant 'crash' in those terms. So if the H&S tops complete, that's the bond yield topping for a period of time - means bond prices should go up. Question is, is the bond buying because of the recognition of inversions and people thinking recession will happen? Also we must recognise RBA is behind the steepening in the curves for now, so they may continue rising for a bit. Does that mean a crash?
Probably time to review predictions, a 10% fall in house prices (initially Syd/Melb, maybe on a delay the rest) - that seems on track to happen, for the cities at least. Dunno about around here, FR and Andy say Northern Rivers is still macking along. WA seems OK too from reports.
Predicted also 'dogs and cats living together' and we've seen those ladies peeling off the outer lettuce leaves and then taking them all - that's an obvious sign of the fraying of the edges of civilised society, so I can see evidence to support this and look keenly for more chaos. Also major event in the mud and celebrity no-shows at the after party...
Will I get to use the 'reject the recession' dancers again? I dunno, and saying that I really want to post them up when I see things at their nadir and begin to improve. But we've got to have an actual recession first! I don't know if this will happen, as much as I might want to see the cleansing of the system, writing off of bad debts, and recharging to faster growth rates coming out of one as new businesses form off a low cost base to do business. A 10% decrease in house prices after a 25-30% rise? That ain't a recession. A recession at historically low unemployment levels? Be keen to hear everyone's view.
"A recession at historically low unemployment levels?"
you're starting to sound a little bit biden propagandaist there velocity...
that's not a recession!
'technical recession'?
the 'technical definition' of a recession has all of a sudden become very very rubbery...
amazing how political EVERYTHING has become... has economics also thrown objectivity out of the window as we swim in the post modernist maelstrom?
hate to out my boring life, but was watching bloomberg tv last night, there was a barage of commentators pretty much literally losing their shit because the fed had commented that there's signs that the recession that is not a recession is almost over...
was truly bizarre to see such dissent in their commentary
full aggresive
velocityjohnno wrote:Hi Patrick I think Don and GSCO answered that one well, just note that the chart posted was bond yields, so inverse to the bond price. And bond markets are a different beast to stock markets if you meant 'crash' in those terms. So if the H&S tops complete, that's the bond yield topping for a period of time - means bond prices should go up. Question is, is the bond buying because of the recognition of inversions and people thinking recession will happen? Also we must recognise RBA is behind the steepening in the curves for now, so they may continue rising for a bit. Does that mean a crash?
Probably time to review predictions, a 10% fall in house prices (initially Syd/Melb, maybe on a delay the rest) - that seems on track to happen, for the cities at least. Dunno about around here, FR and Andy say Northern Rivers is still macking along. WA seems OK too from reports.
Predicted also 'dogs and cats living together' and we've seen those ladies peeling off the outer lettuce leaves and then taking them all - that's an obvious sign of the fraying of the edges of civilised society, so I can see evidence to support this and look keenly for more chaos. Also major event in the mud and celebrity no-shows at the after party...
Will I get to use the 'reject the recession' dancers again? I dunno, and saying that I really want to post them up when I see things at their nadir and begin to improve. But we've got to have an actual recession first! I don't know if this will happen, as much as I might want to see the cleansing of the system, writing off of bad debts, and recharging to faster growth rates coming out of one as new businesses form off a low cost base to do business. A 10% decrease in house prices after a 25-30% rise? That ain't a recession. A recession at historically low unemployment levels? Be keen to hear everyone's view.
As usual, VJ, you're pretty accurate on this.
Example, Manly House Prices have increased 20.6% annually and 45.9% over 5 years. So what if they drop 10%, it's still 35.9% up over 5 years. Or 10% up on 2 years ago. Similar rises everywhere in Sydney.
The Reject the Recession Dancers is possibly the greatest video ever posted on Swellnet.
I think the whole thing largely revolves around how you define a crash and also of course where you are.
Suffice to say that in Sydney prices would have to drop by over a quarter to be where they were only 18 months ago.
Easy come, easy go, but in the long term, especially considering the Australian population is expected to increase by 90% in the next 30 years, it seems that house prices will at least remain steady and should certainly increase in desirable areas (not at all saying that this is necessarily a good thing).
edit: reply to Sypkan
left is right and up is down
watch what they do, not what they say
the charts, they keep completing just as they always have
There is the incredible story of Homma the rice trader... From memory he spent 15 years analysing and creating the candles and understanding the patterns, then went and cornered the entire country's rice market. I read a beautiful piece on how he did it many years ago, but can't find that one easily on a search. The traderbros have discovered his legend in the meantime, and every two-bit traderbro blog will now have a piece on him, junking up the internet so I can't find the original, which described the 'how'.
Anyway a couple of links:
https://medium.com/@fncnewz/the-most-successful-price-action-trader-in-h...
notice he also set up an 'internet' of price information, lol
https://learnpriceaction.com/munehisa-homma/
please excuse the dudes placing their own slant on it at the end of their article...
gotta watch out for that msm TV sypkan
Ms has discovered 'how to make a sex room' on netflix
A further word on the Reject the Recession dancers Channels,
the most reputable link on YT has the dance dated May 18 2009... if we are to assume it aired at about the time it was posted...
A look at SPX (biggest index in the world) saw it complete the breach of a neckline of an inverse H&S in the week of 24/7/2009 (it's low was 666.79 in the week of 6/3/2009 for the conspiracy theorists...) - so - if the reject the recession dancers performed before this, they did so during the formation of this inverse head and shoulder pattern (at the breaking above the 30 week moving average on the right hand shoulder, to be precise)
so
the dancers actually did stop the recession in 2009.
Or that's one interpretation :)
"The board is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia returns to target over time."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-02/reserve-bank-interest-rate-rise/1...
& found it, here is the original Homma rice story mentioned before, for those who are interested
https://www.forexalchemy.com/story-munehisa-homma-must-read-traders
Thanks VJ & others.
Fyi ~ It seems to me the mullet trend has plateaued, perhaps even trending downwards. Just an observation, make of it what you will.
velocityjohnno wrote:A recession at historically low unemployment levels? Be keen to hear everyone's view.
Don’t forget the lag. Fed and RBA have clearly stated that inflation must go and will do whatever needed to curb. RBA already has catching up to do re rates. The genie will bring it on, and the unemployment rate may be the last to leave the station. Forward guidance is still super optimistic. I read a new term today - ‘hopium’ - who says economists aren’t funny?
the RBA also clearly said interest rates weren’t going to rise before 2024.
Most of the commentary that makes sense to me is that raising interest rates won’t do anything to help inflation as it’s supply driven. So why are the markets pushing for it and the RBA following? Real wages are declining not rising.. That statement from Lowe of reasoning was a crock of shit for raising the 1st time. I don’t get it. I don’t think they do either.
I think the only thing they understand is “fear and greed…not logical thought processes like most assumed”. As per Homa VJs link.
Now that the RBA and governments have facilitated their last big round of wealth transfer to the wealthy through the pandemic it’s almost like they now want those freshies with recently acquired mortgages who followed their advice to fail.
"the RBA also clearly said interest rates weren’t going to rise before 2024.
Most of the commentary that makes sense to me is that raising interest rates won’t do anything to help inflation as it’s supply driven. So why are the markets pushing for it and the RBA following? Real wages are declining not rising.. That statement from Lowe of reasoning was a crock of shit for raising the 1st time. I don’t get it. I don’t think they do either."
I don't think they do either...
but, we are in totally unchartered waters... after 15 years of money printing - a stop gap measure that was unthinkable not that long ago - that went for 15 years!!
they are either deers in headlights...
or, unprecedented circumstaces and shameless self interest has clouded centuries of economic theory...
"...I think the only thing they understand is “fear and greed…not logical thought processes like most assumed”. As per Homa VJs link..."
yep
"...Now that the RBA and governments have facilitated their last big round of wealth transfer to the wealthy through the pandemic it’s almost like they now want those freshies with recently acquired mortgages who followed their advice to fail."
a form of pump and dump in the housing market?
a form of pump... and force the plebs to dump... then the blackrock's come in and clean up... completing the biggest wealth transfer ever!
on top of a couple of recently already undertaken biggest wealth transfers ever...
Who remembers this argument - approximately 3 years ago and why we have to have low or negative interest rates
"Deflation discourages spending and investment because consumers, expecting prices to fall further, delay purchases, preferring instead to save and wait for even lower prices. Decreased spending, in turn, lowers company sales and profits, which eventually increases unemployment…"
Now this is the new argument expounding the virtues of inflation and why we have to increase interest rates:
"people spend less when things get more expensive, which encourages businesses to run down their inventories and cut back on capital expenditures, and, eventually, causes them to start firing their workers."
I'm struggling to see the difference but I'd prefer lower prices.
Lifted in part from here (2015):
https://www.ft.com/content/689de921-caaa-3659-829e-e36a0baf0c5b
Common theme is they are terrified you will spend less.
Related:
“Mr Fraser said…there was very little scientific literature around in 1993,”
“Stiglitz responded: “First let me say, where did that number 2 to 3 per cent come from? It was pulled out of the thin air. “
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/how-a-nobel-laureate-got-australian-e...
Fuck I find this infuriating
bonza wrote:“Mr Fraser said…there was very little scientific literature around in 1993,”
“Stiglitz responded: “First let me say, where did that number 2 to 3 per cent come from? It was pulled out of the thin air. “
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/how-a-nobel-laureate-got-australian-e...
Fuck I find this infuriating
It's a bit like protecting Great White Sharks when you have no idea what the actual population numbers or fecundity rates are. Ah, science in the 90s.
Not sure that's the right analogy, but I get your point.
udo wrote:https://www.realestate.com.au/news/eyewatering-price-for-beach-shack-bui...
Use to live in Arthur St. Great area in 90's early 000's.
Florid descriptions of issues which we're already aware of, but what are the consequences beyond rising prices and social instability?
These have been flagged for a long time.
Credit for use of the word otiose.
Head of Ray White Byron Bay claiming prices in the area are down 10%.
That might not yet eradicate the increases of recent times but it takes the wind out of the theory of East Coast Exceptionalism where prices never go backwards.
https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/the-towns-where-the-sea-change-drea...
House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
Cheers