South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast (issued Friday 14th February)
FFS, we're 7/8ths the way through summer and I can count on one hand the amount of good surf days we've had. This come awfully close to one of the worst summers (swell wise) in a damn damn long time.
Yeah it's been a shocker. Hopefully means autumn will be a cracker!
I like that positive thinking.
thermalben wrote:Yeah it's been a shocker. Hopefully means autumn will be a cracker!
i fecking hope so Ben as we only get half a year of good surf in QLD these days it appears.
SST anomalies remain cool in the CS so don't pin yr hopes on a late season cycline
Not feeling so confident of this a good start to autumn (Sydney) Hope I'm wrong. my tracking shows that early May will be the first consistent swells to kick in for this season. Some sneakers always get through but the season is pushing later which no doubt will see the late season winter torn apart by northerlies that happen from sept.
I will pick however, the first weekend of May ( Sydney) as a good solid swell. Give or take a day ; )
What data or evidence is your prediction based on Joaske?
freeride76 wrote:...so don't pin yr hopes on a late season cyc line
Seriously though I can only find stuff saying the monthly anomalies are neutral
I'm pretty keen on what seems to be a cold outbreak next fri
Here's my prediction. Late season cyclone/s....late April, possibly even early May.
Which ocean basin Don? Will they generate swell for any coast?
No need for specifics (ie what the quality of the resulting surf might be), but a long range call for a 'late season cyclone" anywhere in the Australasian region is a little broad. Kinda like a call for late season snowfall in in the Australian Alps.
Sorry Ben, was referring to Coral Sea/SPCZ. And geezus, if you want me to forecast the swell from it this far out, that's a bit harsh!!!!
Nah, I certainly don't expect that. However, it does pose the question - how relevant is a TC forecast at long range? Will it have any effect on a region's surf potential around that time? If so, how can the boundaries be tightened?
I'm still waiting to hear how Joaske is tracking a swell in May.
thermalben wrote:However, it does pose the question - how relevant is a TC forecast at long range? Will it have any effect on a region's surf potential around that time? If so, how can the boundaries be tightened?
Relevant to what? I never said anything about swell from it. Just that my theory of the seasons getting later points to an active late cyclone season (on the east coast) in my opinion. But until April/May, we may as well not over-analyse my hunch.
joakse wrote:I will pick however, the first weekend of May ( Sydney) as a good solid swell. Give or take a day ; )
I for one hope you're right Joakse as I've got my annual east coast surfari already locked in for this time!!! :)
donweather wrote:Relevant to what? I never said anything about swell from it. Just that my theory of the seasons getting later points to an active late cyclone season (on the east coast) in my opinion. But until April/May, we may as well not over-analyse my hunch.
Don, I'm not having a go. I'm just trying to point out that a cyclone forecast at long range doesn't actually influence our surf prospects for that time.
I'm more interested in the warm water pooling up off the southern NSW/Gippsland coastlines...that's a fertile area for ECL development if the cookie crumbles the right way come season change and the arrival of cold pools from the south.
thermalben wrote:Don, I'm not having a go. I'm just trying to point out that a cyclone forecast at long range doesn't actually influence our surf prospects for that time.
Agreed.
freeride76 wrote:I'm still waiting to hear how Joaske is tracking a swell in May.
Mangos. His Mangoes told him.
Mangoes. That is gold. If it is noticeably better than the days before and after with a significant swell ...compared to those days, then I will claim my mangoes have had a good season. Let's no over analyse an informed hunch
Yeah loved the Mangos call Braithy,
I got none on my tree at the mo......?
No mangoes = no waves.
It's science!
There's shiteloads of mangoes here Braithwaite. I want my money back.
Well you will get waves then Steven. Copious amounts of waves. At certain points you will be scared too.
The mangoes told me this, just now.
joakse wrote:Not feeling so confident of this a good start to autumn (Sydney) Hope I'm wrong. my tracking shows that early May will be the first consistent swells to kick in for this season. Some sneakers always get through but the season is pushing later which no doubt will see the late season winter torn apart by northerlies that happen from sept.
I will pick however, the first weekend of May ( Sydney) as a good solid swell. Give or take a day ; )
Mangoes ben?
Well.. We've already had several very big swells so far over the last couple of months. So no cigar in my book.
Geez Ben you're a hard man to please. I agree we've already had some good swells but Joaske's last line above is pretty spot on IMO. Well done joaske.
Joaske can you please just make the swell come earlier than Monday!!!
Don, over the last six weeks (off the top of my head) we've had two swells in the 8-10ft range and a whole bunch of 4-6ft days as well. So the first weekend of May wasn't when "the first consistent swells kicked in for this season".
Would have been nice for Joaske to discuss the science behind the prediction.. but as he simply said "mangoes" I presumed it to be a random guess. The line "I will pick however, the first weekend of May (Sydney) as a good solid swell" is a pretty safe bet in any given year.
Also, it's a little premature for Joaske to be self-congratulating the prediction - firstly, this weekend's swell event hasn't arrived (so we can't evaluate it) and secondly, the claim was made in reference to the broader autumn period (with May being the last month of the period). Who knows - perhaps he'll be right and we'll see a dozen ten foot swells over the next four weeks. But I'm doubtful.
Ok ben I was a bit tongue in cheek as others earlier scoffed at my predictions so I ran with mangoes. There are still days of northly winds blowing on this coast...little further north. By consistent swell I was really referring to a change of seasons this weekend and some consistently cooler weather and offshore. This weekend is it. Not to be too self congratulating but this was over 2 months out and is pretty spot on, granted early may is a sure bet though. Still I did pick the date and say significant swell event compared to days before and after for Sydney. If I had said 4/5th would there be more kudos? Not that I care. Don no chance of early arrival. Science behind it is seasonal patterns tracked over the last two years. I have a whiteboard full of dates that were pretty accurate last year, but really prefer to surf alone so....should add I have no idea if it a really long fluke but a correlation seems to exist in my data. So patterns more than science, which I agree, makes little sense but has really impressive accuracy.
joaske, you write, "Not feeling so confident of this a good start to autumn (Sydney) Hope I'm wrong. my tracking shows that early May will be the first consistent swells to kick in for this season"......
You wrote that in mid feb..... So, if written in mid feb, and "this season",and "autumn"are quoted, you are already wrong....... You wrote it in summer, mate..... Wasn't even autumn yet...
As far as autumn,,,, well.... 2 long groundswells in march from tc lusi and tc mike...... followed by ex Ita, and some of the biggest waves the east coast has seen in a long time...... I'd like a long term forecast for a flukier time of year joaske, cos Autumn is renowned for swell. Tell me about late August and september, mate. ;)
Back when Ita was a baby, I gave don weather 3 possible outcomes re' Ita..... Now joaske, this was when ita was an infant sitting off the Solomans..... She could've done a hundred things - died out, headed due west into the torres straight, which don pointed out the charts were saying at the time, she could've crossed the cape into the gulf,headed due south, sout east, hit fiji, gone ene and far far away........ A 100 scenarios......
So where were you, joaske during the ita chat? The biggest waves in ages?? My 3 scenarios ---- 1 merge with a southern low and form a super low .... 2 touch up the whole coast of qld.... 3 cross the qld coast and bring inland rain......
Guess what joaske!!!! It touched up the whole coast AND....AND.... merged with a southern low...
As fatboy meatloaf would say....... 2 outta 3 aint bad....
Cheers, Jo.....
geez guys, leave the predicting to the professionals. while its great to see u have a crack, ur really clutching at straws if u two (SD and joaske) think u 'picked' the swells ur talking of. u both left massive get out clauses in ur predictions, and then did a better job than a politician at talking up the tiny segments u got right. my big call...... second week of september, sunshine coast,size somewhere under 8ft, any direction swell except straight west. sunny but otherwise cloudy, perhaps rain. definately no snow.... unless it snows.
Joakse, I love discussing all kinds of weather forecasting techniques, especially those that aren't based on traditional sciences. However if you're gonna make a claim you really need to provide some reasoning behind it in advance (which I asked for, but received no reply).
As for "I have a whiteboard full of dates that were pretty accurate last year, but really prefer to surf alone so..." - we're not asking for detailed locations, broad areas are fine (ie southern NSW) and no matter what you predict it won't have any bearing on crowds.
joakse wrote:By consistent swell I was really referring to a change of seasons this weekend and some consistently cooler weather and offshore. This weekend is it. Not to be too self congratulating but this was over 2 months out and is pretty spot on, granted early may is a sure bet though. Still I did pick the date and say significant swell event compared to days before and after for Sydney.
To be pedantic, you said the following things:
"Not feeling so confident of this a good start to autumn (Sydney) Hope I'm wrong. my tracking shows that early May will be the first consistent swells to kick in for this season."
We've had a decent number of 'significant swells' through autumn. Couple of ten foot days and a bunch of six foot days. So, in my eyes this is not correct.
"Some sneakers always get through but the season is pushing later which no doubt will see the late season winter torn apart by northerlies that happen from sept."
Not quite sure whether you're referring to northerlies in Sydney or somewhere else (Sydney was the only place you mentioned in your initial post). Anyway we can't evaluate that until spring.
"I will pick however, the first weekend of May ( Sydney) as a good solid swell. Give or take a day ; )"
Sure, that was a good call. However (as you've said) early May is a a pretty easy chance for a 'solid swell', of which there were no parameters defined - how big (6ft, 10ft, 15ft etc), what direction/origin (south swell, east swell, north-east swell), what generated it (tropical cyclone, ECL, cold front, Tasman Low etc).
For example, I could make a claim that the third week of August is looking like we'll see some decent snowfall across the Alps - but statistically this is a pretty safe bet, unless I hone into the specifics. Also it's kinda meaningless without some additional information around the weeks leading up to that date (a decent snowfall without a solid base is somewhat wasted for skiing purposes).
Anyway, I'm not having a go but just curious on what basis you're forming your predictions. There's a lot of knowledge in between the gaps in forecast literature - such as you may be drawing upon - and I find that surf predictions in particular is a unique stream of weather forecasting that frequently throws curveballs that can only be (partially) understood by those that have surfed all of their lives.
True I am being a bit surreptitious not wanting to reveal too much. I agree lots of get out of jail free statements. After all it is not science it is patterns. Might just go hide under my blanket and take the whiteboard down. I do love this forecasting stuff and swellnet does a great job of it and keeps and interesting forum. Thanks for the dialogue.
Oh should add my charts showed the previous swells. I was just trying to pick one a long way out near a weekend which I believe shows the turn in the seasons. Which I think is pretty fair given the north elites and very hot days preceding this weekend. Guess we'll see.
Don't hide under the blanket J, keep it up. Would love you to start a new thread with another prediction (say for the end of the winter period, or perhaps another region).
You're a clown, boogie boy.... Go back and read the forecast notes..... Even check the current forecast notes for Qld.... I stand by my calls.... Secong low will be better..... Possible ecl later in week..... The only get out clause is the one that let you out of the muppets, "waldorf'....
i get it, some protected species on here hey?SD, i wrote u a heart felt, sincere fuck u and have been censored. kinda went like this..... 1.riddles so noone knows what shit ur spitting. 2. sprouting 11 sunny coast spots all time, big call dick wad, offshore all day, 4-6ft swell....duh, everywhere was pumping! then a photo of a "secret reef" a moment in time that i know closes out.3.something about u leaving 4 tassie cause of qld prohibiting sibling relationships.
oh, and 4.i dont read ur latest predictions anymore cause of the 'get out of jail free card' u throw out afterwards... e.g. ita calls and the far off uninhabited islands that are gonna be off tits....no one will see it so how are we to know!!!! secong????? low..... when??? and when the "possible" possible......
ecl drops will u say i told u so!
Have a look at the mslp you lazy clown... When do you think? Have to be spoon fed? In the report Ben wrote above, he writes "On Wednesday, we MAY start to see the arrival of a small trade swell...Could occupy.....next weekend will PROBABLY be"........ Are they "get out of jail" quotes? You can't even be a 1/2 decent troll....
Seemed Ben was interested in those Islands... he posted photos of them..... Idiot.....
And yeah the second low..... If you had 1/2 a brain, and followed the full conversation, the first low is moving off the victorian/southern coast as we speak..... Those I was conversing with, Don, free ride, mitch, Ben, all know the second low is the one positioned at 53s 145e 10am 5/5/14, moving nne at a rapid rate...... Work the rest out yourself, if you are capable...
interest in an island? musta been almond shaped barrels, 10ft hawaiian hey? doesnt mean it broke u little shitzu! i dont need ur dim witted, pseudo forecasts....just trying to get u 2 lock in an answer. i know ben wont run around flapping his dick in the breeze saying 'i told u so' if he gets anything near a ecl forming. u however feel the need to mouth off any chance u get! u sure u didnt get deported 2 tassie, either way.... ur no loss to the sunny coast.
Ahhhhhh morning chaps!!! Nice read above! ;)
Geez boogie boy, you got a fever, go see the Doc chap, before it gets contagious.
donweather wrote:Ahhhhhh morning chaps!!! Nice read above! ;)
Haha, I know how you feel. I was like this when i went up north and TC Ita happened.
boogiefever wrote:i get it, some protected species on here hey?SD, i wrote u a heart felt, sincere fuck u and have been censored.
Ain't no censoring going on here BF. Must have been an issue at your end.
Boogie fever... if ya' gonna take the dog on, you best get your facts right..... And best not to lie..... It'll bite ya on the arse...... Respect shattered, and publicly so......
You write " sprouting 11 sunny coast spots all time, big call dick wad, offshore all day, 4-6ft swell...."
Um, no boogerboy.... You are a liar.... Thats not what I wrote.... Get it right...... Here are my exact words, 11/3/14, 12.06pm; "and pps free ride - I can think of at least 11 particular surf spots between Hervey bay and Brisbane that will be all time on early sunday morning with a light wnw"
So waldorf, where did I write offshore all day? Liar..... BS artist....... I wrote wnw in the morning, gherkin breath....
I said between Hervey bay and Brisbane. I didn't say just the sunny coast..... D.I lefts aren't on the sunny coast..... Moreton and North straddie aren't on the sunny Coast..... Once again, you are a liar...
What I said was straightfoward.... No semantics.... I'll leave semantics to bitter talentless hacks like your self....
11 breaks that work in 6 foot wnw between hervey and brisbane.... - di lefts, North end A bay, Outer sunshine, 1st bay lefts, that reef you reckons "closes out" ( um, there are 3 reefs there you pseudo 1 minute coolum local - I lived there for 20 years..... got mates living on arkwright who sent me photos.... Hmmm believe them, or believe someone who has documented to the world they are a liar..... hard choice) island left, North end maroochy, secrets, deadmans, the pocket, wurtulla, the reef, kings, kings groyne, happy valley, honeymoon bay back beach, main beach straddy...
There's 16 for ya, clown...... And check out Ben Osbournes photo of the sunny coast beachys and me mates tim's photos of the southend here, from that swell..... Now crawl back under your bridge with your reputation in tatters, troll, Or I'll post the retro map with tc ita, the prevailing winds for that time, the swell window for that section of the barriers reef, and your knowledge on surfing will be even more publicly embarrassed, if that is at all possible.... Why don't you get off your arse and check it out yourself re' great barrier reef?......... Lazy..... And you must've missed the video I posted...... People like you never discover new breaks..... Have to be spoon fed....
http://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-dispatch/2014/03/17/photos-tropica...
youd love to bite my arse SD. wtf is a waldorf? where u dropped on ur head as a child? forgot where ur brain medicine is old yella, time u were off to the vets to put u down. u proved my point exactly, 11spots was ur 'locals knowledge call'. really went out on a limb with ur guesstimations there. u forgot the coolum bays,mudjimba, twinnies, rivermouth and y'bah....where i surfed that day, with none other than julian wilson. the wind wasnt up til 10ish so everywhere was good u wank stain! ur a tool and it shows. just because i think ur full of shit, doesnt make me a troll, just someone who is sick of ur inflated ego. the barrier reef is an untapped surfing resource but fickle as, due to wind exposure. pretty sure ben shut ur idea down as well. first, u put up the wrong map and said u did it on purpose, then this utter tripe.... need i write anymore???
tues 8 april
Sheepdog wrote:On Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, one of the last true frontiers of surfing will be all time.... It's not a "call".... It's a fact...... 8 to 12 foot plus..... Dangerous..... Isolated..... And it's in Australia......
Did this happen SD? There are no buoys in the region (so we can't confirm data), and the BOM forecast for the Peninsula Coastal Waters (Sharp Point to Cape Melville) was only 1 to 2 metres 'outside the reef' for yesterday, today and tomorrow.
u responded by writing off the entire BOM.......
Ben,the BOM are on drugs.... They have no idea about up there..... Mick free knows exactly where I am talking about.... As I said.... The last frontier..... There was also a slacker pressure gradient around where I detailed to Mick.....
just cause u say it should be good, doesnt mean it was. get ur hand off it!!! and now ur telling me u were in the vid u posted of an unnamed site on a 1600km long reef? yeah, thought not.
Julian wilson?????I'm mates with julian wilson you DICKHEAD!!!! Even better mates with his dad MICK and his wife NOLA!!!!!!! Ahh ya fucked yourself now, ya namedropping tosser...... Mickey and Nola still live behind the ********* where My wife and I worked for 2 decades shitbreath.... Used to chat with Micky every morning. Known Julian and his bro's since he was a little grommet surfing with Sam Rhodes.... Used to call him into waves ya' retard..... Nola was one of my wifes best customers.....I'll give em a call.... Bet ya lying... again..... Oh, and I didn't say I was in a video.... Said I posted it..... You can't even fuckn read... HAHAHAHA, oh what a stain...... Waldorf is out of the muppets.... One of the old critics that pick on everything
Yeah, Mick free and co got a personal email from me re' great barrier reef map..... They knew I was posting the wrong map ya clown.. Mick free and I exchange information privately..... As I PRIVATELY said to mick and co' I wont put the exact map up..... Don't wanna publish the exact spot - let people find it themselves..... And nah, ben didn't shut it down.... He posted a picture of the island.....
Mate, the further you go on, the bigger hole you are digging..... Ya got nothing to contribute.... No talent..... Can't admit you were wrong re' "Offshores all day", "11 breaks".... More semantics from a bitter little lid rider hahahaha... Hilarious....
Note Itas position.... Note swell window for northern barrier reef..... Note slack gradient at Torres straight...... I'm glad you don't believe....... One less fuckwit to ever surf the last frontier....
BTW, joaske, if u are out there.... Keep on studying weather , man.... Don't let tossers stand in your way... And if Ben,, or Don, or Craig, or free ride question you or give you tips, take it in..... They know their shit...
Cheers, Jo....
South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 14th February)
Best Days: No great days.
Recap: Hardly any surf over the last few days, with most beaches seeing weak lines of a foot or less.
This weekend (Feb 15-16)
Don’t even bother with the surf this weekend. We’re not expecting any new swell of note anywhere in SE Qld or Northern NSW, and N’ly winds will become fresh to strong at times both Saturday and Sunday. These winds will whip up a peaky local swell but beaches facing NE will see the most size and they’ll generally be quite wind affected. Really not worth your time, money or effort.
Next week (Feb 17-21 onwards)
A trough will push off the southern NSW coast on Saturday, forming two lows in the Tasman Sea - a primary low east of Tasmania, and a small embedded low offshore from about Seal Rocks on Sunday night. This will drive a gusty southerly change across the Mid North and Northern NSW coast early Monday morning, reaching the Qld/NSW border on Monday afternoon.
This change will generate a southerly windswell for exposed beaches but no great size is expected from it, especially in SE Qld (due to its direction) - and winds will be gusty from the S/SE at the same time, so conditions will be poor (there won’t be enough size for anything worthwhile on the protected points).
The primary low responsible for this change is expected to track rapidly south-east after forming in the southern Tasman Sea, dragging the northern low away from the coast at the same time. This will reduce the size and longevity of any swell generated on Monday. As such, Tuesday will see easing low quality short range S/SE swells across open beaches with light winds tending NE as a new high builds in the Tasman Sea.
On Wednesday, we may start to see the arrival of a small trade swell, generated by a deepening trough of low pressure well south of Fiji over the weekend. No great strength is expected within this fetch so at this stage we can expect generally small surf from this source (inconsistent ~2ft+)
Also on Wednesday - it looks like we’ll see a repeat of our weekend’s weather pattern, with an approaching trough from the west spinning up a low off the South Coast during the day. This should give rise to a small peaky NE windswell Wednesday ahead of a building S’ly swell sometime later Thursday or maybe Friday.
In fact, the latest model guidance suggests the system developing in the Tasman Sea mid-next week will be significantly stronger than what we’re expecting this weekend, and could occupy the region for a day or two. Such a scenario would give rise to a large south swell across the entire NSW Coast (peaking around Friday/Saturday in Northern NSW) however as is always the case with a swell with any southerly component in it, expect much smaller waves north of Point Danger. Let’s just pencil in the prospects of an active Tasman Sea later next week with a view of something worthwhile next weekend, and review the specifics on Monday.
Long range (Feb 22 onwards)
At the moment, next weekend will probably be near to the peak of the aforementioned south swell, or more likely on there backside of this event. Beyond that there’s nothing of any interest standing out in the long range charts.