South Australian Surf Forecast (issued Wednesday 12th February)
I love it when on the daily drive home swell check, finds heaps of people standing in car parks looking out to sea, waiting for the swell that was forecast to Maybe or maybe not arrive., doesn't arrive. Have a nice drive home to pooraka in 40C heat suckers!
At least have a swim - 40C armpit stench-off in a closed car with recycled AC air is shithouse
True Mundies so true, nice night for a swim or to push the kids onto a couple of peelers on the foamys.
Winds at Hindmarsh Island have had north in them today (Fri) & yesterday (Thurs).
All the BOM & SN forecasts have been E, E/SE & SE.
Looking at the the latest MSLP map I would say the wind should be NE.
Why have the forecasts for the past 2 days been off? Local effects at Victor?
Johpg, a similar question was asked in the Vic forecast notes yesterday. And the reason is almost the same - it's most likely due to the presence of a broad, complex trough moving over much of the region right now (tweaked by local effects as you suggested). You can read my comprehensive answer here (I'm a little flat out to look into the specifics of this right now).
However, it's also worth looking at the obs for Neptune Island, as there are no 'local effects', there which means it's a more accurate reflection of the synoptic flow. Winds have been anywhere from the SW thru SE and E over the last couple of days at Neptune Island.
AAhh the job of internet forecasting..sometimes you are off..sometimes you are on..very difficult to tell the winds down the leg..it has been all over the shop..drove over the hill wed and it was SE ..drove around to the wreck it was SW..drove back home to Mazza's and it was SE, then drove to Ponds and it was SE..there was even smoke come down from the Bangor fire..and that's 400k's away!! Thurs day the wind was apparently 2knots..with gusts, wait for it, up to 4knots!!....couldn't feel any wind at all!! Fuck its fucken raining though!! yeehar!!
South Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 12th February)
Best Days: Thurs/Fri: small windows of small waves on the Mid (mainly the afternoons).
Recap: Tiny leftover waves on the Mid on Tuesday didn’t really offer anything surfable, but early offshore winds down south provided good waves at most locations up until about lunchtime. This morning offered a repeat with tiny clean conditions on the Mid and early offshores at Victor. A new long period groundswell registered at the CdC buoy in the early hours of this morning, but it’s been really slow to build throughout today. And, as feared in Monday’s notes, the initial direction (of this first phase of the swell cycle anyway) seems to be slightly more south than is optimal for the Mid Coast - wave heights have barely cracked 0.5-1ft all day, with long breaks of flatness between.
This week (Feb 13-14)
There’s no major change for Thursday’s forecast. We’re looking at a new pulse of groundswell from a secondary front that wrapped around the initial Southern Ocean low pressure system several days ago, but once again - the vast travel distance and the slight southerly component in the swell direction will signifciantly cap wave heights in the gulf. So, keep your expectations low and be pleasantly surprised if there are some small peelers on the afternoon's turn of the tide.
A more pronounced E/SE airstream is expected across the South Coast on Thursday, so the chances of an early offshore breeze are much more diminished than what we've seen over the last few days (although a brief period can’t be completely ruled out). There’ll be plenty of swell on offer but conditions really will take a beating as these onshore winds strengthen throughout the day.
On Friday, we’ll be on the backside of Thursday's swell event and SE winds will continue to create problems at Victor. As for the Mid Coast, in general it’ll be a smaller version of the day before - so with Thursday looking borderline in the size department, Friday is an even dicier prospect. We do however have another pulse of small new swell on the cards generated by a cut off low located in the central Southern Ocean today (due south of about Esperance). This doesn’t suggest much on the charts right now - and it’s tracking more quickly through the periphery of the Mid Coast’s swell window than is ideal - but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see an afternoon kick on the tide produce some smaller peelers across the reefs. However, I’d keep your expectations low and wait for visual confirmation via the South Port surfcam.
This weekend (Feb 15-16)
Nothing great on offer this weekend. We’ll see very small residual swells across the Mid Coast with fresh and gusty winds from the southern quadrant as a front clips the southern part of the state. It’ll be all blown out down south (with plenty of swell) but at this stage I wouldn’t get your hopes up for much more than a bumpy grovel on the Mid both days.
Next week (Feb 17 onwards)
A high moving in from the west will clear the weekend’s southerlies, but a front pushing through the waters immediately below WA on Sunday and Monday look like they’ll kick up a reasonable W/SW for the Mid on Tuesday (albeit with onshore winds). Check back on Friday for more details.