South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast (issued Monday 7th April)
I promise I won't pick your forecast to bits this time SD :-) and attribute the call to you if it's a winner
thermalben wrote:Sheepdog wrote:Ben - That predicted "secondary low" is currently the eastern flank of Ita..... Without Ita , the secondary low would not be hypothetically forming
No, it's not "currently" the eastern flank of TC Ita. It's a possible forecast solution from the GFS model (and, other models don't have it, so there's a reasonable chance it may not happen).
As for hypothesising what may cause this secondary low to develop - if it develops - well, that's a chicken and egg scenario.
Ben, As I wrote; "That PREDICTED secondary low" is currently the eastern flank of Ita..... Without Ita , the secondary low would not be HYPOTHETICALLY forming".......
That is my response to YOUR comment at 7.19am -"In fact, GFS is developing a small secondary low (possibly low end TC range) to the SE of TC Ita over the weekend that's more likely to generate an E/NE swell for SE Qld."
I was simply responding to your 7.19am comment, and I did make it quite clear that we are dealing with a "hypothetical prediction"....... A hypothetical prediction that your wams pinpoint as a split off from Ita - At 12pm today, it HYPOTHETICALLY shows a small pocket of low pressure splitting off the ese flank of Ita, and by 6am sat, it is trying to ramp up.... By 6pm Sat, it has become it's own entity...
So, we'll agree to disagree about a hypothetical......????? I stand by "hypothetically" speaking, the "predicted" secondary low is thanks to Ita......
ps - the egg came first.....;)
Cord to the horizon!
Brown cord as well, old school!
SD I personally think the secondary low is a function of both Ita and the Tasman low. Without either there wouldn't be a trough of low pressure to allow the secondary low to form up. And that secondary low can spin up anywhere along that trough so watch this space if it does actually happen.
The broad trough is the main requirement. We've seen plenty of small lows in the southern Coral Sea before, without the concurrent presence of a Cat 5 cyclone or a Tasman low!
Earth.null looks great.. http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/04/11/0000Z/wind/surface/level/orthogr...
Shit! Never seen that Earth.Null before Craig. Awesome :)
Mitch - ratshit bay , or Buchans bar or yorkeys cove at low tide.. Don't expect much... shame it's not off the coast...
Don... the "predicted" secondary low doesn't exist on some charts.... But the models where it does exist, it clearly shows the low forming out of the remnants of Ita.
Swellnets mslp here - http://www.swellnet.com/reports/australia/queensland/gold-coast/wams
Note 12am sat thru 12pm sat - 1008h isobar, forming ese of Ita....
Also note "your site" Bellmere weather" 11/4 2200 thru 12/4 2200....
Yeah Craig, but luckily there's fresh water creeks to wash in :-)
Cheers SD. Checked all those spots and yeah, plenty of waves but really short rides and no real take off spots. Still, something there to punch against if you're quick
As NSW is maxing, so it is up here. 5ft (Max) peaks and 3 ft walls! Yew! Check nine new if ya can
South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 7th April)
Best Days: Tues/Wed: great waves across the points
Recap: Plenty of waves all weekend and today courtesy of a long range E’ly groundswell. Building short range S/SE swell in the mix today as well.
This week (Apr 9-11)
We’ve got a really good short term forecast period ahead, thanks to an active Tasman Sea. First up though, it’s worth up noting the two pulses of long range E’ly swell that have provided good waves to the region over the last few days.
The leading edge of both swells arrived well ahead of expectations (Saturday’s swell arrived late Friday, today’s swell arrived late yesterday), which means we can - in this instance - correspondingly bring forward the downward phase of the current swell. So, expect this inconsistent E'ly swell to become even less noticeable through Tuesday. However, with a strong building S/SE swell in the water this is a moot point.
A low pressure system developed off the Southern NSW Coast over the weekend, before retreating into the central Tasman Sea. It’s now re-intensifying and tracking slowly northwards, not aimed perfectly into the Northern NSW Coast but still within a reasonable ballpark.
We’re looking at a steady upwards trend all day Tuesday, peaking in the afternoon and holding through Wednesday morning before easing very slowly through the afternoon and into Thursday. Winds will remain fresh S/SE for much of this period so the various points and sheltered locations will be your best bet.
Size wise, we’re looking at a peak around 4-5ft+ along exposed parts of the Northern NSW coast, with slightly smaller surf on the points (3-4ft). Wave heights will be smaller in SE Qld, peaking somewhere around 3-4ft+ at exposed south facing beaches (albeit wind affected), but only 2ft to maybe 3ft along the open points due to the swell direction.
And, as mentioned in previous forecast notes, super protected locations like Noosa won’t see much size from this Tasman swell due to the predominant southerly direction, and will therefore be relying exclusively on the long range (and rapidly easing, and inconsistent) E’ly swell.
Tapering swells and lighter winds will then pad out the end of the week.
This weekend (Apr 12-13)
There’s not much surf on the charts for the weekend, thanks to a broad area of inactivity expected across our primary swell windows later this week.
TC Ita is positioned up in the Northern Coral Sea right now but will remain outside SE Qld’s area of influence for the entire forecast period.
Otherwise, it looks like we could be heading towards a period of very small surf from Saturday through the first half of next week. More on this in Wednesday’s update.