What's what?
Is there anyone out there in swellnet land skilled at "base load energy", electricity, wind power etc? I have a question.
...a rhetorical question, right?
Chook........ No....
I want to find out if the 2% figure splashed around by Frydenburg was a blatant lie.
When S.A had the blackout 2 days ago, he said at the time wind power was producing only 2% of S.A's power.
The blackouts occured at 6.33pm.
South Australia has 16 operating wind farms with a total installed capacity of about 1,473 MW.
At 6.33pm, the average wind speed across the majority of wind farms was 9.5 knots.... Say 10 knots..... Gusts up to 13. Surfers know what 10 knots feels like... That's the strength of sea breeze when surf turns to shit.... Strong enough to get a windmill turning pretty good... 4 knots is needed to get wind farms operating..... 7 knots is good enought to create decent power.... So 9 to 10 knots with stronger gusts up to 13 knots would surely produce good power right?
Here's a list of the farms.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wind_farms_in_South_Australia
Keep in mind 5 of the farms at Lake bonney and wattle point are near Mt gambier, which had 11 knots and 18 knot gusts. Three of them are the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th biggest on the list.
Snowtown is the biggest (368.7mw).... Snowtown had 9kts and gusts of 13kts.
Yes it would take a skilled person to figure this out....
But Turnbull and Frydenburgs figure of 2% seems waaaaaay dodgy.
AEMO would be managing the power distribution for SA. Hence all parties are asking the questions. The 2% may have been the case at the time when power was shutdown or maybe even redirected in that area. I would be surprised / shocked if AEMO shutdown for so called 'political purposes'. It takes time to fire up the gas turbines but we will just have to wait for the report. Regardless, SA's power supply is skating on this ice.
After the late 2016 SA blackouts I had the opportunity to speak privately and at length with someone in a senior position closely connected with AEMO.
This person stated very clearly that (1.) Josh Frydenberg was playing dirty politics on the issue; that the facts on why the blackout occurred did not bear any resemblance to what Frydenberg was saying publicly, he added, Frydenberg's public pronouncements started almost 2 weeks before he was handed the formal report explaining the reasons; (2.) the rules under which AEMO operate under (distribution/generation) are flawed and need refinement to reflect the changing landscape in electricity generation throughout Australia. [He noted changing the AEMO rules is a federal government responsibility; and (3.) power/energy generation industry in Australia is screaming out for a bipartisan approach but this is impossible until the LNP accept we need to transition away from coal (he added we will need new gas power plants into the future to ease the transition).
There you have it, no mention of Labor's renewable energy targets or solar or wind causing the problems, just better regulation for AEMO, bipartisan policy on the transition away form coal and some new gas power plants. The rest is fluff.
Interesting there was some power expert professor guy on TV last night and he confirmed that AEMO are operating under outdated rules (Frydenberg's responsibility to fix).
GuyS, this weekend (if the heat comes as expected and that's not a given), the eastern states plus SA will be impacted greatly for energy supply. Yes there are rules and procedures on how the participants in the market operate and bid / offer energy. One key point which you made, is that more generation is required. Gas as you suggested. But the fact is, you will find that we are operating at just about the maximum supply hence the shedding or power cuts. If you believe Frydenburg is playing games then ask why was this not fixed when Labor was in. The renewable push has been going on for a while. Also because gas takes a while to kick in the price is higher. The bottom line is the cost will rise when there is more demand than supply. Wetherall will have to bring in more gas or being cynical he might push for nuclear. (Worked at Origin - a gas supplier)
TonyB, I perhaps needed to be clearer, that senior energy person I refer to above, said new gas plants should have been planned/built by now to compensate for the fact that old coal fired generation will go progressively off line all over Australia in the future as their used by date expires - e.g. SA generator, Anglesea in Victoria both shut down and Hazelwood to shut later in 2017. He sees gas the base load keystone and also intermediate fuel between what we have now and the renewable future with battery storage (whatever that will look like with technological advances).
Re: Labor/Lib roles - as I said above he said the industry is screaming out for bipartisan policies and he reflects we have had 10 years of politics about carbon pricing etc. The industry is wanting certainty and while both sides are arguing no-one is investing e.g. in new plant.
My opinion, for what its worth is, Turnbull would know what is required (market based price on carbon to drive new investment) but is stopped by the conservative side of his party thus his and Frydenburg's attack on SA and Labor in general. Its certainly the role of the Feds to amend the outdated AEMO rules.
It seems its all to do with politics and not what is good for us, sad.
very well said Guy. spot on. & dont forget molten salt.
personally i reckon all new houses should be required to install at the very least a few kWh of battery storage. its expensive but we need to start sucking it up if we want to get rid of coal. most peoples garages are plenty big enough.
Would all of this be happening if the essential service of power had not been privatised?
Doubt it.
No shit Sherlock. $ in it, watch out
GS, yes more non renewable power is required in SA. It's important to note that Weatherill wanted more renewables hence th shutdown of gas power in SA. He was hoping to piggy back off Vic. But his plan has failed. The interesting development will be Vic. They are shutting down the brown coal but don't want to use the large amount of gas on land they have. The development of energy policy is the state governments responsibilty. AEMO will manage the distribution of the energy. State governments do have a say who gets the energy at times of load shedding.
Hey TonyB, a couple of things on your last comments.
In SA with the shutdown on their coal power plant the smooth operation of their existing privately owned gas power plant is even more important. It seems only 1/2 of that gas powered plant has been operational for at least 12 months for probably commercial reasons. SA use of power from Victoria is entirely appropriate because that is what the national grid is meant to do. The problem for SA is the reliability of the interconnector which failed last year causing the blackout.
In the case of Victoria I think you are confusing a few things. I'll explain. Firstly, the 2017 closure of Hazelwood coal power plant has been long known. Its a failure of state and federal governments on both sides that this was not planned for both in replacement of energy sources and assistance for the Latrobe Valley workers. Its Australia's oldest and dirtiest coal fired power plant and its closure will go along way in helping Australia reduce its carbon footprint.
Victoria is a net exporter of gas, via the Bass Strait platforms, into the national gas grid. This grid as you may be aware feeds gas to households but very importantly to LPG processing plants allowing our gas to be shipped overseas in mind-blowing massive amounts. These LPG export arrangements, because of shortfalls in government policy, force Australian consumers to be subject to the vagaries of international pricing markets and therefore goes along way to explaining why gas prices for Australian consumers have gone through the roof. [it should be noted that other countries protected domestic consumers from international pricing but not Australia].
Back to Victoria: you mention the ban the Victorian government has on land based gas exploration. It has done so to protect prime agricultural land and importantly the water table under that land from fracking. I personally support this ban and the cockies in the bush wanted it and love it. Pity NSW and Qld dont follow suit .... anyway, because of the massive gas reserves in Bass Strait Victoria does not need to worry about it and would have adequate gas to power a gas power plant should one be required.
Energy policy: whether or not its the state's responsibility, and I question it is, the whole Australia surely must want all governments to work together, State and Federal, to get the best deal for consumers and the country and that must include reducing our reliance on coal. The state governments seem to get it, its a pity the Federal LNP don't.
Cheers.
GS, yes for whatever reason the Pelican Point gas plant was not fully operational. Yes, SA will need more gas (or whatever) power plants. The government shut down the last coal plant. If you suggest that being dependent on vic power then therein is a problem. As we saw when the Heywood connector went down. The next few days will see the whole grid under stress, NSW, SA, Vic, Qld ...boom. Yes there may have to be load shedding across these states. For SA, there is simply not enough power generation and yes they plan for more gas. It seems this fragile scenario has been tabled before, so the fingers are pointing any which way.
As I said the Vic power scene will be very interesting given the brown coal plants are being shutdown. The Bass gas will be more expensive, so the people will just have to pay more. The land gas supply is another issue and not relevant here.
Better check your energy policy points. Yep the state governments play a direct role. Why do you think Weatherill had a royal commission into nuclear.
In the case for SA, AEMO had to load shed to avoid transmission damage.
Feel sorry for SA people, means flakey power supply. AEMO tries to limit to impact but still not good.
Anyone got a reasoned problem with this analysis?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/11/hard-facts-unmask-th...
Pretty much spot on TT and is exactly what I've heard from an insider.
Lenore Taylor has a way of cutting through the bullshit I really like.
hi TonyB,
Can you please confirm that the SA coal powered plant was government owed, I thought it was private in which case the SA government didn't shut it down, the private owner did.
In Vicco, as everywhere else, coal fired plants will close when they are beyond their useful life. The private owners/operators nor the government aren't wanting to close them down anytime soon, apart from Hazelwood and its already gone beyond its useful life. Coal power plants will continue to operate here for many years, the question is what will replace them (see Turks article above, no-one apart from the LNP is talking new coal power plants).
Gas prices: Australia has abundant gas supplies and reserves. Gas here could have been very very cheap. But as I highlighted above previous governments sold us out in that regard in the race to get LPG plants up and running so that gas could be exported to the world and at a crazy cheap price paid to AU. But because the world is hungry for energy these operators can sell our gas at very high prices and those "international spot market prices" are what us poor suckers must also pay. With gas, supply is not the issue nor reserves, it how we have been sold out by our governments.
Cheers, have you read that article TT has posted?, well worth a read.
"It’s probably not surprising that Coalition ministers and MPs were cradling the lump of coal brought to Question Time on Thursday by Treasurer Scott Morrison as though it were a treasure from Aladdin’s Cave. After all, their own plan for cheap and clean coal is steeped in as much fantasy as that favourite childhood tale."
http://reneweconomy.com.au/coalitions-clean-coal-plan-revealed-idiotic-f...
The LNPs 'clean coal' bullshit. Read the transcript and weep.
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/mr-clean...
Gobsmacked TTurks, the thing is I wonder if anyone in the electorate is buying it. I hope not.
On this cost of coal thing, what few are adding into the equation is the rehabilitation costs of the mine sites. Hazelwood in Victoria will cost the owner/operator over $750 million in rehabilitation costs and that does not include a further $325 million in staff redundancy and leave costs. Further, there is a suggestion that to rehabilitate the site properly there will need to be an environment "concession" allowing the diversion of the Morwell River to fill the hole to form an artificial lake. This option raises more questions than it answers in terms of health of the lower river.
So, when we hear about coal being cheap its good that the environmental costs are starting to be added to the equation, in the case of Hazelwood possibly over $750 million. No costings have been added yet on the cost to the atmosphere!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-20/hazelwood-rehabilitation-to-cost-7...
http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/hazelwood-owners-fac...
Tonybarber & others,
You might be interested in these.
The first tells how the Turnbull government knowingly lied when blaming renewables for last years blackouts in SA (based on documents obtained from the PM's office under FOI).
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pm-and-minister...
The second article reports on the call from business and the community for a bipartisan energy policy transitioning away from coal after a decade of inaction and political fighting ...
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbul...
GS, ok so it looks like we are reverting to what others say. As you know AEMO manages the power distribution on the eastern states. They have produced a report for SA some time ago.
In the report a summary is :
"A joint technical report1 published by AEMO and ElectraNet in October 2014 (2014 Report) concluded that the SA power system can operate securely and reliably with a high percentage of wind and rooftop PV generation, as long as one of the following two key factors apply:
The Heywood alternating current (AC) interconnector linking SA and Victoria is operational.
Sufficient synchronous generation is connected and operating in the SA power system."
https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Secu...
So if some of the key sources of power are not available then blackouts.
If you think being dependent on another external supply (Heywood connector) is sufficient then maybe think again. As we have seen over the last few days and from the previous transmission lines failures, SA power supply is precarious to say the least.
The politics comes into play in setting the renewable target hence dependence on turbines and solar. We have just seen, that was not possible. Hence coal or gas or nuclear or hydro is needed.
GSmiley, I'm pretty sure that the Leigh creek coal mine closure was related to the decision to close the power station and both were owned by Alinta (or some similar company). Not Government tho.
What's often not mentioned is that the wind farms in SA are MASSIVELY subsidized by the state government. This was the reason the mine closed and the power plant closed too, (I think), although I haven't got a supporting figure for that. Subsidizing clean energy has forced coal out of the market so there seems to be this whole chicken/egg argument from the pollies but from what I can tell SA has no power because of the idealogical gun to our head by the Weatherill Government. The AEMO was created by the SA government and now they are kicking the shit out of them for making them look bad.
Bipartisanship is the only thing that can save us now as SA is now reliant on the welfare of Victoria's coal plants through our sole inter-connector. The problem seems to have been made worse by the fact that the SA gov are relentlessly picking fights with the feds to shift the blame from themselves. Everyday we get a pie in the sky scheme and its someone else's fault that it didn't work out etc etc so unfortunately this problem will never be solved until the SA state government changes (at least in my opinion). The desperation meter seems very high in all of the government communications these days. The national energy plan is a good idea but the thought of the SA state government getting near it makes me shudder.
The elephant in the corner that I think is yet to addressed is what happens once the existing power suppliers are made redundant and we start to wind back the clean energy subsidies? Does our power price double? I have quoted a few things without facts as I confess I am no scientist but if there is someone here in the know I'd love to hear more about it.
@TonyB, I think you need to revisit what I have already said. The interconnector between states is an entirely normal thing, over the last few days Victoria probably "interconnected" power to NSW for example. So the interconnector between Victoria and SA is also entirely normal. I also talked about the under-utilised SA gas power plant and the role AEMO plays on decisions to fire it up. We (and SA) do need a mix of power sources as we transition away from coal over the next 0 - 15/20 years unless someone pulls a rabbit out of a hat i.e. new provable cheap and clean coal technology. That technology does not currently exist - the cleanest of clean new generation coal power plants are still twice as dirty as gas and off the scale in pollution compared to solar and wind (even allowing for build costs for renewables). There is no argument about it - its factual and scientifically measurable.
For more information on this topic I urge you to listen to Melbourne ABC radio 774 - there was a special 1 hour long program on this topic this morning and one of the guests was from the Minerals Council. Access a replay of the program via 774s webpage.
Gaz1799, there are many comments of yours I query but I also suggest you listen to Melbourne ABC radio this morning (see my closing comments to TBarber) if you are sufficiently concerned about the topic. You raise an important point about costs and this topic was covered in the radio program, replace costs for gas and coal power stations are through the roof compared to renewables (this isn't my opinion its fact) so if we want lower power prices into the future a greater mix of renewables is required.
Heads up, Smiley my man, with Barbie, if it ain't in/via Murdoch, it don't exist.
GS, seems you have neglected the AEMO report. You need to pick up the key point is that the Heywood connector is a 'backup'. Not sure what you mean by 'normal'. If I was in SA, then yes, I would be concerned.
Thanks Smiley, I'll look into it a bit more because our government loves a few "alternate facts" and most people including myself just don't know the extent of coal vs gas usage in our energy network.
There just seems to be too much politics in it now to fix the issue like adults.
Believe me tb I'm in SA and we're concerned. There are country areas that have had power outages last 2-3 days over the last few months. And some have had this multiple times!
@TonyB, okay we are down to the minutiae then. Yes, the interconnector between Victoria and SA is a backup but what is abnormal about that? Now, if you are going to say if Victoria needed more power SA cannot provided it, i.e. the interconnector between Victoria and SA provides power only one way, again I ask what is abnormal about that. The interconnector is designed to flow power to where it is needed, it should do it efficiently, via AEMO, but it doesn't at the moment and that's where the Federal Minister needs to get off his bum and fix it.
@Gaz1799, its good you have an open mind on these things. All politicians and their parties like to spin it to their advantage and I feel for SA at the moment because you are being used as political scapegoats by the Feds. Turnbull and his ministers are truely misrepresenting the facts, its madness because the energy industry needs direction and certainty and they are not getting from the Commonwealth nor have they had it at anytime during the Abbott/Turnbull governments.
@TonyB,
The other day you made some comment about Victoria not allowing land-based gas exploration to which I provided lots of information about how gas companies here are exporting huge amounts of our gas offshore at little or no tax benefit to Australia.
There you go TB, read this ...... tax avoidance of monumental proportions
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tax-sink-hole-g...
What's the point of Australia allowing these rent seekers in if they don't pay tax?
GS, not sure what the relevance of your PRRT tax link is. What I think will be interesting is that as gas becomes the key power source for Vic (as the coal gets shutdown) then the costs will have to rise. As you said, gas won't be coming from the land. Again, it may (note may) mean that the Heywood backup becomes even more critical for SA. Nothing 'abnormal' about a backup supply. But if this single backup is down then sorry SA, lights out. You seem to be blaming AEMO. If so, then you need to understand the physics of power transmission and procedures required to start up power stations and then impact of load shedding - bit out of the realm of this chat, I suggest.
gs I think the situation is actually the reverse here in SA as the state government are content to blame all their problems on the feds but the reality is state power is a state responsibility & they couldn't organize a chook raffle.
All the chest beating between the state gov & the feds just makes the situation worse because the gov here has lost all credibility and are now being treated like a rogue state gone mad.
The SA state energy crisis and the state/fed debacle could be likened to starting a bushfire and blaming the firies for not putting it out fast enough.
Advertiser, hey?
And is that bald peanut still reading the news? He used to surf, apparently.
Very clever mr. Bandt
https://m.facebook.com/Adam.Bandt.MP/photos/a.150546688313906.24363.1503...
And, ... too clever for your own good mr. Turnball
http://reneweconomy.com.au/malcolm-turnbull-has-battery-storage-installe...
Renewables offer a fine future...for some...
The Scottish play is everywhere!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/14/sound-and-fury-mac...
Ah, Trumble...
"I have no spur to prick the sides of my intent, but only vaulting ambition, which o'erleaps itself, and falls on the other."
(Act I, Scene VII)
Nice work Turks, another great article from one of the Guardian angels
Kristina Keneally is a labor paradox if I ever saw one - catholic, free marketin, privatisin, no union experience etc its no wonder the party hated her guts. Shame really the party needs more like her and less of what they currently have, or at least that's the opinion I got as an interstater looking in.
I read an article somewhere earlier this week that said Turnbull is safe because he's doing such a shit job that the libs would lose his seat in a by-election, and they know he'd resign on the spot if they shafted him and hence lose majority in parliament.
She was Obeid's pawn, no?
That might explain it.
Ah yes that may explain it. I should've known better than to think there was a free agent in the labor party.
Hold the presses!
**FROM OUR FACTCHECK EDITOR**
And then there were two: welcome back ABC Fact Check.
Here at The Conversation, we are committed to publishing evidence-based journalism that aims to inform rather than persuade. In a world flooded with opinions based on alternative versions of reality, we think it’s vital that someone does the heavy lifting of sorting truth from fiction.
It’s one reason why we have been commissioning FactCheck articles written by academics since 2013. And it is why we are so pleased to see the return of the ABC Fact Check unit, which was closed in May 2016 and relaunched today as RMIT ABC Fact Check. In a time of slippery weasel words and “alternative facts”, Australia needs fact checking more than ever and it’s not something we think should be left to just one organisation.
The ABC’s return to fact checking, in collaboration with RMIT, will hopefully get the nation talking about facts, evidence and how we can all become more critical media consumers. It also reminds us of the importance of trust in journalism, and the need for media outlets to be transparent about how we work.
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We then ask a second academic expert to blind review the FactCheck draft. That means they read it without knowing the original author’s identity to check that it really is correct and impartial. The blind review is a crucial step and has helped weed out inaccuracies many times in the past. Our FactCheck Editors challenge both author and blind reviewer to support their own arguments with sourcing and high quality evidence.
Above all, we want our FactChecks to be accurate and fair, and help hold our community and political leaders to account. Our FactChecks have been mentioned in parliament, republished widely and cited by advisers helping to craft policy.
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It’s our hope that a healthy fact-check culture in Australia will have us all listening to our public figures with a more critical ear, and asking ourselves: “Hang on, is that really true?”
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Ok, now how truthful or rather factual should FactCheck be ? If a statement is an 'opinion' then how useful is this ? Now would it be interesting to see if FactCheck could check say, the top five news articles in say the top three news media. Ignore the opinion articles.
Turkey perhaps you might be just the bird to run a FactCheck here on swellnet?
Fact Check?! I can't even understand Barbie's latest incoherent muttering.
Here it is...AGAIN. Maybe it'll get "cut-through" (as Credlin describes it) this time.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/whats-the-point-of-australian-pol...
Credlin also suggested it was time for prime minister Malcolm Turnbull to apply what Abbott did on the "carbon tax" to renewables.
Theatre of the Absurd.
BURKE: Yesterday in question time, the Deputy Prime Minister ridiculed anyone who received preferences from the Greens political party. Given that the WA Nationals have now retaliated against the WA Liberals by cutting a deal to preference the Greens political party ahead of the Liberals, does the Deputy Prime Minister stand by the answer he gave in this place yesterday?
JOYCE: ...You are getting ready—you are lining them up. […] There are a couple of others back there—you there might come forward. The member for Whitlam never really was here, so he will go back! […] You are done and dusted…
BURKE: On a point of order, Mr Speaker: I refer to page 505 of Practice which reads: “Although there is no specific rule set down by standing order, the House follows the practice of requiring Members’ speeches to be in English.”
(the inside mail is that Barnyard has got a serious drinking problem. Naaaaaaah)
Revenge of the nerds
Working poor get their weekend wages cut - wear it..
Head of Australia Post gets pressured to take a cut on his 5 million dollar salary - he quits
Oh the irony.
Its getting harder for the average joe to make end meet. Fucking capital greed
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