Climate change wankers
barley wrote:What has happened to el nino?
Following a sustained media campaign El Nino was, like, totally found to be a fallacy, a theory contrived by the ABC-listening lefty lynch mob, much the same as global warming and Darwinism. It's totally false dude!
stunet wrote:
barley wrote:What has happened to el nino?
Following a sustained media campaign El Nino was, like, totally found to be a fallacy, a theory contrived by the ABC-listening lefty lynch mob, much the same as global warming and Darwinism. It's totally false dude!
It's El Niño people and stunet's right it's just a big hoax perpetrated by a bunch of people for something or other, I forget what. Anyway carry on, nothing to see here.
Barley, it's still raging (this one could end up being equivalent or break the record setting 1997/1998 event) and will continue through our summer and possibly even autumn.
"El Niño conditions are present. Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 85% chance it will last into early spring 2016."
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
No offence craig but its all predictions.at the end of last year the bureau predicted an elnino to begin by sept2014.then it was predicted for a dry season 2015 which was half true .then a dry august/september 2015 now they are saying we are in for a wetter than average spring.
So in 6months they have done a complete backflip on their predictions.
what they havent accounted for is the warmer than normal indian ocean produceing tropically fed cut off lows infeeding into australia.
in the advertiser the other day you had one scientist saying it could be the worst el nino ever then saying probably not as bad as 05/06 or 1997. If these guys who study it dont know whats goin on why not just say that instead of false predictions.?
Predictions only become false once they are no longer predictions.
It's not predictions, haha.
We're in it now, and there's a 90% chance it will continue through our summer and even autumn.
Trades have weakened and even reversed at times in the Pacific, warm water has piled up across the Eastern Pacific Ocean, preventing upwelling and also taking a huge hit on the anchovy fisheries off Peru.
We've had cold, clear nights across Australia and we're in for a long hot dry summer.
It's like me predicting it's going to be 6ft, and there's 6ft waves rifling off in front of you and you're saying it's not happening. Laughable.
So your not factoring in the warmer than normal indian ocean temps? And what effects that is having?
To use your analogy its like yoy predicting and your computer models presicting that its 6ft but something else has actually occured and it is windy tides dodge or another effect causing it to be 3ft or not accurate. What about the ECL the other day? 400mm in an el nino? Yeah right!
You're an idiot.
We've had NO rain all winter, and Sydney only got like 20mm and that's it. While the South Coast copped all that deluge. Grass is brown outside.
Had no decent swells at all besides refracted S'ly stuff, with this week being the only E'ly swell all winter!
Indian Ocean temps were above normal start of year but now colder, haha..
Research before you write.
You really think you, with no real science background has a better idea on what's happening with the world climate than all the thousands of scientists and goverment bodies who know this stuff inside out.
barley knows stuff, it is known.
As a wise man once taught me, remember when dealing with people that there's a 50% chance they are from the left-hand side of the above curve.
Bingo! hate to tellya Crag but there is another world outside Sydney? So your disregarding the torrential downpour of 2 days ago? aren't el nino's dry? So 3 out of 4 of these scientist predictions are so far, false!
Have the ocean temps been warmer near Africa?
So approx. half the IOD models show a positive and the others show neutral? that's hedging bets..or in other words don't really know..excellent science!
I will believe the scientists the day they get something right! If you can predict that then you are a genius!
One thing I do know is that no one will ever know what mother nature is up to. No matter how long they study it.
barley wrote:I will believe the scientists the day they get something right!
Says he who uses technology to type that very sentence.
barley wrote:One thing I do know is that no one will ever know what mother nature is up to.
Says he who claims to know what mother nature is doing.
"So your disregarding the torrential downpour of 2 days ago? aren't el nino's dry?"
"I will believe the scientists the day they get something right!"
It's a strange person who, when confronted with what they see as evidence that the entire scientific community is wrong and that they're right, won't critically examine their own interpretation to look for a reason why they themselves might be misunderstanding something.
Everyone is looking at the same data, and yet the science community concludes a different thing from the internet bloggers who don't seem to capable of examining where they might have a misunderstanding that has lead them to "The Truth" when none of the "experts" have worked it out.
I'm not sure scientists have said that el nino means it won't rain anywhere ever, in Oz, during an el nino event. Pretty sure el nino events are drier than usual in south-east Oz, not rain free or devoid of seasonal storms.
been a big day for barley, the rock dweller.
craig or any other keen el nino/climate watchers
do you think the el nino thingy is the reason SA and indo seems to be void of the normal winter swells recently?
I've been observing from afar so could be wrong but recentlyit seems SA has had quite smell swells and lots of summer type winds ie SE to NE. I suspect this is also the reason barley has been showing particularly prickly personality traits of late.
the word around indo is it's been quite small for most of the season, are these events related? and if so has places like shipsterns and the like also been missing out? it appears not looking at that recent vid.
also does el nino equate to good eastrcosst swells for the cyclone season or not? I seem to recall el nino bringing good winter east coast swells, but that was a long rime ago, could be way off.
sorry too many questions, just trying to avoid a woeful small and SE summer like we haven't had in southern parts for a long time
Hey Sypkan, check this article Craig wrote about a month back which shows regions of increased wave activity during el nino/la nina.
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2015/08/05/el-nino-and-australian-swell-patterns
No doubt there's much more study to be done but it's a good start.
thanks for that stunet, interesting but kinda light on details, not a criticism, just saying, a lot of assumptions in there. I had some of it right from observations and a vague memory, but still lots of mystery. interesting how victoria and tassie still seem to get swells
been hanging with a Hawaiian and a californian of late. word is last el nino Hawaiian type swells for california and too windy for Hawaii
sypkan wrote:thanks for that stunet, interesting but kinda light on details, not a criticism, just saying, a lot of assumptions in there. I had some of it right from observations and a vague memory, but still lots of mystery. interesting how victoria and tassie still seem to get swells been hanging with a Hawaiian and a californian of late. word is last el nino Hawaiian type swells for california and too windy for Hawaii
There're a lot of people very keen to see what this Hawaiian season brings. El Nino research - at least for that part of the world - has come a long way in recent years. Not sure about it being too windy in Hawaii last El Nino but certainly there's enough evidence on the record of their being increased swell activity in the N Pac.
No one knows
no one knows barley, but there are assumptions and evidence, I'd say the fat spell and summer winds that are making you grumpy is pretty good evidence of el nino. bearable conditions in summer but not good enough to get you out of the car in winter....brrrrr. let's see if the long term rainfall backs it too
same for climate change, assumptions and evidence, like you I think too many assumptions to be sure, therefore too many assumptions to be a condescending git to those willing to question stuff. but enough evidence for me to practice caution, this is where we differ, but the caution is about much more than climate change, don't get bogged down with annoying lefty labels, it's about the oil rigs in bight you're concerned about, it's about not being hypocritical and gimps to the saudi's and other oil tycoons. it's about there's gotta be a better way to power stuff than burning shit, the combustion engine is caveman technology
you farmers make sport of criticising science and governments, I'm cool with that, you guys possess a lot of other very valid knowledge, but some thiings are pretty much proven and el nino is one. I think the early calls and the process of calling causes some confusion and doubt but once it's on it's ptetty much on.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/flurry-of-tropical-cyclones-gi...
Still nothing to see here, move along.
Eh Barley!?
Ha hey Bra nice pick..I have one from Adelaidenow..South Australia caught n climate tug of war
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/technology/whats-the-weather-like-for-spri..... Another rain event n an el nino? gotta be kiddin me right?
Hey Craig didn't you tell me the Indian ocean was actually cooler the other day? Apology accepted haha..but hey what do I know? pfft
hey rockman get in the sea
barley wrote:Hey Craig didn't you tell me the Indian ocean was actually cooler the other day? Apology accepted haha..but hey what do I know? pfft
Clearly not much about large scale weather patterns such as El Niño.
Was in reation to Indian Ocean dipole, which measures SST's off NW WA/Indo.
Rest of Indian ocean is above normal..
Mornin floggy..just got up from ya morning crank? I just got in from baggin out on whiting and squid! But hey dont let that interrupt ya ;)
Browdillyoh i reckon the northwesterly infeed had somethin to do with us havin ave rainfall this year and adelaide south east missin alot.also the 400mm ecl last week.
Its fine to bangon about your elnino but to discount what is happening in the indian ocean is unhelpful.
Fear is a powerful emotion.if you want people to act what better way than to gill their ears full of fear.
Just sayin 'el nino' gets people worried.why is no one talking about its location this time?
Wow, I heard about this in thailand from some Fisher types, they were saying 'bagging a squid' is the closest thing to sex you can get. A few long days out in the boat and yeah they'd all be doing it. What's it like?
Haha who are these 'fisher' types manbat?maybe your not telling the whole story ;)
Hehe, true story, I went out on a fishing charter there a few years back and when the bag of squid bait came out they were all pissing themselves and trying to explain its the best way to go the five knuckle shuffle, I haven't tried it yet :)
NOAA's latest map......
As you can see above, Melbourne region has been coloured in to have had "above average" temps for July...
Now, that's absolute crap.... Australian BOM confirms coldest Melbourne winter in 26 years;
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-31/melbourne-shivers-through-coldest-...
Sydney on NOAA's map has been marked as "MUCH warmer than average"..... Well.... Australian BOM records frostiest July since 1997, coldest run of nights since 1989, and coldest winter in 26 years;
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/sydney-weather-coldest-spell-i...
Is the NOAA map just "made up"?
Not sure you're comparing apples with apples there sheepdog.
The pixels on that map look like they're at least 1 degree pixels, making each pixel roughly 100 by 100km. So that model is integrating data for a pretty large area at each pixel. When the Bureau says Melbourne was cold in July, were they referring to a single weather station? Or a collection of them across the city? That abc article doesn't say, but within each of the pixels on the map there will be finer scale variation that is averaged out on the global scale map.
Also the title on the map says land and ocean percentiles. So what percentile is that particular map referencing? The median, the 75th or 25th percentile or what? The abc article about Melbourne was referring specifically to the maximum temp, saying it was the lowest maximum in years. It's quite possible to have the lowest maximum but have a warmer than average median.
I reckon the map and the article it might not be apples with apples there and both are possible to be true.
Benski, go to BOM, check........ The whole of Victoria was colder, my friend.....
And my point is that a teacher in a year 8 class in say, London, another in New York, another teacher in Durban, could show this map to students... Those students, as well as the teacher, would be under the impression that Sydney in Australia had "much warmer than average" July.... Fact - It did not have a "much warmer average" in July......
Percentile -
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/global-mntp-percentiles
Back to BOM, it's always interesting to go back and look at their forecast for winter.... They forecasted a warmer than average winter fro eastern Australia only back in May..... Wrong again....
http://media.bom.gov.au/releases/171/bureau-issues-climate-outlook-for-j...
Getting a gig in "weather predictions" would be the coziest gig..... Just say stuff..... No one checks... No one is kept to account.... If you're wrong, you can just shrug your shoulders, and spit out more crystal ball bullshit.... And everyone listens...
Look at Flannery... He famously said that dams on the east coast will never fill again..... It's a joke...
oh no! hete we go again!!
having done a little GIS I thought benski's explanation was good, within a 100 km2 pixal there is a lot of room for variation, ya kbow frost on one side of a mountain and mild on the other, but this does show the shortcomings of these models, and the whole science.
but good work sheepdog, keep sniffing shit out, you know you could have warmer daytime temperatures and colder nights due to no cloud cover, then the whole average is dragged down, or vice versa. one would hope they factor theses things in, but it appears not, it appears the whole science is pretty coarse when you look into it, which is quite disappointing when they present it with such confidence.
Those pixels look a lot bigger than 100kmx100km, looks like a pixel would cover Tasmania. Maybe 400x400 even.
According to BOM; SE Aus had cooler than Average but NE had warmer. Warmer over all for July.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/aus/archive/201507.summary.s...
sheepdog,
The noaa page explained that the pixel around melbourne was among the warmest 44 years on record (assuming the record there goes back to 1880). So it could have been the coldest July in the last 30 years and still be in the top 44 over the period from 1880 to now. In fact that's quite plausible considering we are in a warming phase and have been for about 40-50 years or whatever. So again, it's not necessarily inconsistent with that abc article.
The maps carpetman linked through from the Bureau for July show the anomoly for the last 40 years, instead of up to 130 for noaa. Hard to make a meaningful comparison and declare them different. They aren't referencing the same time period.
But we still don't know what that metric is on the map. The abc article was about the maximum temperatures. Is the noaa map relevant to the maximum? Or is it about the minimum? As I said it's perfectly plausible to have a cooler maximums with warmer minimums. And if noaa is reporting the minimums in that map, then it would not be inconsistent with the abc article you linked. But we don't know, all you're telling me is that all of Victoria was colder. But colder in what way? Colder maximums, apparently Melbourne had it but colder minimums? Colder averages? noaa is reporting warmer something, but we don't know what from that map.
All I'm saying here is that there's plenty of possibilities for that map to be consistent with the data you're referring to (whatever that data is). And you gotta compare apples with apples otherwise it's nonsense.
Not sure what weather predictions have to do with the map either because that's reporting observed data (of something) and isn't a prediction.
Sykpan, this stuff has to be coarse though, general climate forecasting I mean, cos people want a single number for the entire planet in 80 years. That's got to be a massively smoothed number, in space and time, cos we're collapsing the earth to one pixel and a 80 years to one temporal pixel. So they've got to go coarse and why there's so much uncertainty around the predictions. Estimates of uncertainty are always presented somewhere but they don't get the pollies excited or people freaked out so no one talks about em. The scientists do though, just no one else usually gives a shit.
Carpetman, I reckon you're right it looks like the pixels are bigger than 100km2.
Sheepdog wrote:Getting a gig in "weather predictions" would be the coziest gig..... Just say stuff..... No one checks... No one is kept to account.... If you're wrong, you can just shrug your shoulders, and spit out more crystal ball bullshit.... And everyone listens...
Predictions only become false once they are no longer predictions.
https://bom.nga.net.au/cp/index.cfm?
Get ya CV in order and stop whinging bro.
Predicting the weather, easy as!
Maybe not.
thats why it has to be a forecast, not a prediction. possibilities and probabilities working within a totally dynamic system.
sure, there are parameters and cycles that can be used to give understandings, but unlike humans who are more reactive than creative, the weather is creative, notice how the only difference between reactive and creative is the position of the c-sea-perspective is everything.
Braudulio... I said it would be a cozy gig.... I didn't say I wanted the gig... Get it right, man....
From what I can see of the mass of warm water in the equatorial east Pacific, that's El Nino alright.
El Nino's recorded in the climate record predate the industrial age and global warming. Has there been much research into the interaction between the Indian Ocean's version of El Nino and effects on Australia during the Pacific El Nino?
All I know is that in the '83 El Nino when the fire front got to Lorne there were firebombs landing in Aireys 5 minutes later and the front itself in 15 minutes. I'd be pressed to drive that route that fast.
while we squandered our once in lifetime mining boom on jetskis and flash fourbys. look what those smartypants northern europeans do with their resource wealth
selfish you say tonybarber?
http://m.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/norway-to-complete-us1...
Extract & burn petrochemicals and use the proceeds to protect forests to catch the CO2 & put back into the ecosystem... its like nature intended right?
queue "circle of life" from the Lion King.
yes well there's a certain amount of hypocrisy to it, buying trees to alleviate one's guilt for selling oil to facilitate carbon intensive lifestyles
the alternative is to dig up shit loads of coal, make shit loads of money, and burn the money too, because you're kinda....well dumb
During the Abbott dark days a few of us here predicted the day would come when Australia would return to a facts / science based debate on climate change and what our response should be.
Well that day is now!
With Turnbull now in charge the day is brighter because he actually believes that a market based mechanism (ETS) is the best way to reduce carbon.
He will be hamstrung with Abbott's policy for a little while but in the meantime he should accept Greg Hunt's resignation as our (so-called) Environment Minister as a good start to repairing this fractured position we have.
Blindboy, I think its time to "come on down" and renew your efforts on informing us on the current state of play on climate change.
yeh! c'mon blindboy
we promise to play nice
( as long as you promise to aim for Floyd's electricity bill, all you have to do is aim for it)
El Nino ? = a great ski season and a pretty cold winter
@sypkan, I don't get electricity bills ... big power company conglomerate pays me nice fat cheques thanks to my solar panels :)
http://principia-scientific.org/supportnews/latest-news/163-new-discover...
Now to all you fruit loops. This is the end to the biggest load bullshit of all time. The government know's it (but still won't say it ), the smart people like me know it. When will you clowns please apologise to me for your un-educated attacks.
To all the man made global warmest alarmist's suck shit losers.
Now go and do something worthwhile fuckwits.