Easter surfing East Coast.

Check the long range forecast on here tomorrow when Craig updates it.

Essentially there's still too much divergence between the leading computer models to have any real confidence.

EC is showing a small easterly dip on the northern flank of the semi stationary high pressure system east of NZ longitudes around mid next week, with wind speeds on the northern flank forecast to reach 30knts+ and a reasonably lengthy fetch to develop. This would push in a fun mid range E'ly swell for SE Qld and Nth NSW probably in the 3-4ft+, with wave heights ranging smaller at further south latitudes for probably around Good Friday and with some leftovers come Easter Saturday, wanning into Easter Sunday . EC also has a small compact low pressure system forecat to push out into the southern Tasman around mid next week, but with a lack of adjoining high pressure on it's western flank, the wind speeds and small compact fetch don't look to generate anything of too noteworthy.

GFS on the other hand isn't being so kind with very little of the easterly dip forecast to occur, and hence the fetch remains further away from the east coast (out past NZ) and aimed more towards SE Qld (and further to the north). So based on GFS, I'd say something of the order of 2-3ft+ would be possible for later into the Easter weekend (Easter Saturday) for SE Qld and Nth NSW, grading smaller at more southern latitudes. GFS has a small low forming in the central Tasman around the middle of next week, tracking southwards, but it also has little to no adjoining area of high pressure on it's westward flank, thus delivering nothing surfable fro the southern quadrant.

Worth noting that the models are progging some tropical activity (yes in April!!!) up near the NT for early to mid next week and hence this is likely to be having a serious impact on the reliability of their long range model predictions. So expect the longe range forecasts to jump around considerably.

I actually used to do the SE Qld forecasting for SN (before Steve took over the reigns), but it all got a bit too much with a full time job and a full time family as well. Still love doing it though.

LOL - As discussed above the models are flip flopping around and in fact EC and GFS have pretty much swapped around with their 00z runs, with GFS showing a very nice E'ly dip on the northern flank of the high pressure system whereas EC has abandoned this prediction all together and rather delivering an elongated standard tradewind swell.

Mate surf forcasting is as simple as these steps indicate
1. wake up early and get out of bed.
2. Grab dog leash.
3. Wake up dog.
4. walk dog to cliffs at end of street.
5. Look left to the reef breaks.
6. Look right to the beach breaks.
7. If there are waves go surfing.
8. If there are no waves go do something else.
Now how simple is that without all the flip flopping........hahahaha ;-)

Well there's finally some consensus between the models now for mid-late next week, and it's fair to say Easter is shaping up to deliver some nice swell for SE Qld/Nth NSW. Good Friday could well see some nice E'ly swell in the 4-5ft class, building and peaking into Easter Saturday (afternoon) in the 5ft+ class and slowly waning back down to the 4ft+ class during Easter Monday.

Local winds still a little difficult to call, but likely to be from the SE during the first half of Easter and possibly swinging around to the southern quadrant later into the 2nd half of Easter if a small low tracks southwards through the Tasman as alluded too by the long range GFS models.

Yes the models stretch further than Easter but given the fact that they're still divergent for the end of next week, there's really not much point in trying to predict out past the Easter weekend at this stage.

Here is a free site that has swell predictions 7 1/2 days ahead.

www.fnmoc.navy.mil/public/

Click global and regional ocean wave prediction charts.
Click south pacific.
Click ALL beside Swell wave height and direction.
and most importantly click ALL beside Peak wave period and direction.

Not sure why previous link is not working.
Try googling Fleet Numerical.

Thanks Sir. That site, like most other internet wave prediction sites uses the GFS weather model as input.

Speaking of GFS, it has what could well be TC Vania come the middle of this week delivering the goods to SE Qld/Nth NSW later into the Easter long weekend!!!