IOD 2023 and Indonesia
Sorry I missed this Brownie, looks to be maybe a weak + event, so you can expect trades to possibly be a touch stronger than normal and S/SE-SE. Will continue to monitor.
The event we had in 2019 was one of the strongest + IOD events on record.. https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2019/10/31/shivering-in-...
Thanks Craig, I decided to put off any possible Indo trip till early - mid next year. just dont trust the current set up
What don’t ya trust about it Brown man? That the trades might blow hard?
I’m assuming he put off his trip due to concerns about shit swell
Also not ideal if trades down Java way get too strong and push up into Mentawais and Telos sending everyone to certain spots instead of a variety of wind directions.
2019 was real bad weeks on end and even when there were rare times of no to light winds it still left the south facing waves generally rights a bit funky, only positive is it tends to rain less as rain and storms seem to come in more from the west
The winds don't really matter if there's no swell
Update..
It looks like we're not going to see a + IOD event now this winter/spring, against most model forecasts which had a weak + event at least.
The cooler waters off coastal WA aren't expected to spread to Indonesia with it now forecast to remain warm there. So it's looking neutral.
The persistent NW cloud-band activity (current and forecast) looks to align with this as well.
Thanks Craigos.
For the daft among us, what does a neutral event mean typically for overall swell/winds in Indo?
I don't think there's an answer to that unfortunately sea biscuit, the correlations between ENSO seem to be more for the south-east of the country and East Coast swell regimes.
Hopefully in the coming years it'll become clearer the impacts for Indonesia, it's such a wide and varying swell basin.
KevinHardwick wrote:The winds don't really matter if there's no swell
It's very rare to go flat at the swell magnets in Indo though say its small to tiny and your in South Siberut area and a brisk southerly is blowing it could be 2ft an Nipusies 3ft+ at Burger world but both will be ruined by the wind.
If winds are light and variable you dont have that issue.
bigredcouch wrote:What don’t ya trust about it Brown man? That the trades might blow hard?
I had to make a quick decision about go or no and it started to mirror 2019 like Indo Dreaming has mentioned it can be very shit if the IOD links up with el nino. I think that may have been the combo but could be wrong as I cant remember anything these days
There was some good articles as Craig has mentioned about it back then on here in 2019
Yeah 2019 wasn't an El Niño, just a very strong +IOD. So ruined lots of places in Indo.
Craigo how’s the late season indo outlook? Got a couple weeks coming up and some mates just came back from the Ments complaining that it was consistently windy and small…
With the BOM saying the IOS may go positive would you say that the Indo season from July onwards might be a stinker?
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
I remember a few articles a few years ago about this and how Indo was crap but the Maldives pumped
What are your thoughts?