The MJO's effect on the Surf Coast
Some early morning reading to get the brain ticking over.
Nice Craig. Not to undermine, I thought the MJO single strength and location, and the impact on possible swell production was fairly well understood. Or am I missing something here?
Tropical swell production yes but mid-latitude connections less so.
Interesting. I'd oblivious oversimplified. Typical layman.
Nice one Craigos. Cheers.
Craig. Thank you for your always impressive work and information, your knowledge imparted to us is gold.
I really enjoy reading and understanding them all.
I hope your little loved one and your partner are doing fine. AW
Yeah agree with that AW
Hello Craig
Great work , Sherlock Holmes !
Looks like U have added a lovely Teleconnection , 2 your Forecasting Tool Box .
U are the Man , when it comes 2 finding Surf !
Any idea how the MJO , is reacting 2 the Climate Driving , CO2 ?
Perhaps , way 2 early 2 tell , as it's History , is just emerging ?
I have No idea and will read your post , 4 a 4th time :)) .
As more research is conducted regarding climate drivers and the teleconnections they create across hemispheres and ocean basins, this one interests me the most.
There is a strong correlation between an active MJO signal in the Western Pacific Ocean (sectors 6/7 in the below MJO plot) and an increase in the upper zonal winds across south-east Australia, ie increased frontal activity potential = swell.
That being the large convection profile of the MJO during our winter/spring (when it is in the Northern Hemisphere) forces a planetary wave which in turn brings increased cold outbreaks and frontal activity to the south-east of Australia (blue oval across Australia in the below chart).
This first chart shows the current MJO position and phase, as you can see it's currently strong in sectors 6/7.
The second chart shows the typical atmospheric response during Aug/Oct/Sept when the MJO is in certain sectors.
When in 6/7 (Western Pacific) we see heightened potential for cold outbreaks and frontal activity for the south-east of the country. Alternatively we see suppressed activity when it is in sectors 1/2 (across Africa).
The current setup being a text book example.
We've got an active MJO signal across sectors 6/7 and the response in the Southern Ocean is clear with strengthening, back to back storms pushing up and across the south-east.
This correlation is strongest during winter/spring and less so through summer/autumn as noted in this study.. https://research.usq.edu.au/download/e8d75c49188ac65e1aec47b950fa30a4b17...
But I've found the correlation to exist through summer as well, though more research has to be undertaken.
Take home point, when the MJO has strength across sectors 6/7 expect strong frontal activity across South Australia/Victoria.