Ului
Looking like a pretty significant system! And yeah as you said, easily 10-15ft! Not good for the sand banks that have built up at all!
And it's a crying shame if it does happen as the banks are in prime form, coming into our peak and prime swell season too. I haven't seen the beachie banks this good for some time so it truly is gonna suck if they get totally destroyed and revert back to multiple storm bars, which will take some considerable time to breakdown again and reform.
Not to mention the destruction that 7m swells@13-15 seconds are gonna do to places like Noosa main beach, particularly combined with a fairly sizey high tide and a significant storm surge.
Let's just hope that mid level trough comes through early and whisks her away to NZ before she get's too close to the coast.
BTW - Does anyone know what Ului means?
Hit up Mooloolaba :D
With TC Ului sitting up near Fraser, the swell direction will be E/NE, hence very few places to hide. Even Mooloolaba will be out of control.
im hitting up moreton bay
How big you reckon Don?
Bigger than 10 foot?
I looked up Ului in the dictionary doesnt seem to have any meaning
Peace out zac
Pretty sure Ului wouldn't mean anything but just be a name. Probably named by the Fijian equivalent of our BOM and be a local name.
I'll be eying spots of a higher latitude from where I am. Fingers crossed for some windows of opportunity over the weekend.
I'll be eying spots of a higher latitude from where I am. Fingers crossed for some windows of opportunity over the weekend.
By: "billvis"
You and every man and his Chihuahua too Bill!!!! Enjoy the spectacle mate.
How big you reckon Don?
Bigger than 10 foot?
By: "stunet"
Stu, based on the current GFS track (slow moving, close to the coast and cradling of the Tasman high), models are calling for a NE swell of 7m@13-14 seconds to hit Noosa. Now for me, that would be easily 10-12ft+, but seriously, once we're above 10ft, who's scale are we measuring it on then anyway?
Model runs today have held tight Don.
Fuck, I'm 1000 k's from the bastard and I'm getting goosebumps. Not sure how many great waves will come from this event but I think it'll be awesome to see the size it dishes up.
Stu, GFS's 06z run last night downplayed a coastal crossing of TC Ului. pushing it further eastwards away from the coast, hence diluting somewhat the swell heights hitting the coastline (don't get me wrong, I'd prefer this forecast track). This mornings GFS runs have gone back to a coastal crossing or thereabouts, hence back up to 6-7m swells predicted to hit the Sunny Coast.
EC is progging a crossing further north so this would likely result in a smaller swell hitting the SC as well.
Gnerally, the forecast movements of TC Ului are extremely hard to predict to the upper levels, so it's really gonna be a waiting game come closer to the end of the week.
P.S. Thanks Matthew for resurrecting my post.
Yesterday magic seaweed was predicting a peak of 20ft but today it 10ft.
whats going on? I know their predictions are allways extremely exagerated so does this mean that the predcted swells are not gonna happen?
and coastalwatch has not been updating the virtual bouys since yesterday morning. Are there any other free alternatives?
Brian,
This is a classic example of why you cannot trust automatically generated buoy data as it is only using one of the models to predict the surf and when the models are divergent you get massive changes from update to update.
This is where the forecasters come in and assess all the model data available and then run with their experience to give a forecast on size and arrival time.
Reading Steve's forecast notes will give you a much better indication of the swell size and duration than pure virtual buoy model data :)
yes, but the model data is changing right now! i dont want to wait till 6pm wednesday night for steves forecast.
With TC Ului sitting up near Fraser, the swell direction will be E/NE, hence very few places to hide. Even Mooloolaba will be out of control.
By: "donweather"
Hehe, just the way I like it :)
yes, but the model data is changing right now! i dont want to wait till 6pm wednesday night for steves forecast.
By: "brian-wu"
And the model data will continue to change up until tomorrow night and beyond Steve's forecast right up until the swell hits because that's what models do.
What I'm getting at is that a forecast done by an experienced forecaster is better than a computer generated virtual buoy forecast due to the forecaster having more tools and experience to compile their forecast with rather than just a swell height number and period.
If you keep checking every 6 hours for updates on Magicseaweed you'll see the numbers jump up, down and all over the place due to the unpredictable nature of tropical cyclones.
Steve's forecast will give you a clearer picture of the whole swell event and the different aspects that a computer model can't tell you.
So I advise on sitting tight and checking back Wednesday and Friday and then see how everything unfolds :)
There's no use getting amped on a massive swell one minute, to then be let down 6 hours later because the models shifted ;)
Hay Don / Stu what's happening guys, gone a bit quite on this one...?? been enjoying this thread.
How are we looking for swell prospects now that the forcasts are saying it'll cross the coast this weekend a bit further north then earlier predictions?
Does it look like Ului will get far enough into our swell window to send us anything really substantial?
Pete, fair to say Ului has tracked higher to the north than anticipated earlier this week and so the swell heights to hit SE Qld and further south will be smaller than what I was calling earlier this week. I still reckon the SC has the potential to see rogue bomb sets in the 8-10ft class, grading smaller into the 6ft+ class on the most protected points. Goldy probably 6-8ft, grading down to 5-6ft at the most protected points.
Further south and you can do the math. Biggest X factor now with Ului tracking/crossing higher latitudes is the winds on her southern flank and further south again. Onshores could seriously spoil the party, even at the most protected points where it could well be cross shore even.
That's my 2 cents worth.
Don, I guess there are a few beach front home owners around the place breathing a collective sigh of relief. More on the Goldy then up this way, luckily there’s not too many ocean front mansions on the Sunny Coast.
I know it’s too early to call anything yet, but it’ll be interesting to see what sort of monster rain depression this will turn in to after crossing the coast. There’s one hell of a cloud mass wrapped around this system…..
Your earlier call for Ului got me amped for a road trip up north (probably a bit further north then what people where thinking of some earlier posts). With this system forecasted to sit out off Fraser it was looking very tasty for a northern novelty break or 2 that I’ve been hanging out to score with some size. But I think you’re right, it’s going to be hard to escape the on shores now. Having said that, I think the road trip could still be worth while; there are plenty of options to check on the way up…
Stay safe in this crazy weather coming our way..:)
Hey guy's I just surfed a point in Mackay today. I have waited 4 years to surf this point, but it was pretty average, about chest to head high. I have evacuated my house in Airlie Beach, Ului is hitting there as I type, hope theres not too much damage...
After Calling around the Sunny Coast today Ului has not lived upto the hype yet. DI only 3-4 foot, Noosa the same, Caloundra onshore and messy 5-6 foot...and I am sitting in the Indian ocean getting rolled in the Marges left over swell (SSW 1-2meters 10nm out).
If I was at home the run to Agnes would have been gold, yesterday.
Forget Tomas, he's old news. If TC Ului tracks as per current EC and GFS charts, then SE Qld can expect one hell of a storm swell come next weekend (easy 10-15ft). No-where will be handling this storm swell due to the close proximity of the storm to the coastline. Even tow-ins will be questionable due to the constant swell (once again another factor of the close proximity of the storm). Couple this with some new moon large high tides and we can expect Noosa and the southern end of the Gold Coast to end up in the ocean (beach erosion). Multiple storm bars will form along all open beaches and we can expect Autumn 2010 surfing along open beachies to be gone for some time.
We do not want Ului this close to the coast!!!!