Couldn't predict a sh!t

Righto. Let's clear up a few things first.

The swell forecast charts - and the wind charts - are automatically generated and updated by a computer model (the same model used by most other websites too). We can't intervene and tweak their output. It's very complex for me to explain why this is the case - let me know if you want me to - however this is just the way things are with our new website.

As for the BOM, we have no integration with their forecast products whatsoever. Only their live wind observations and tide data (and that's through a third party supplier, Weatherzone).

As for the accuracy of our forecasts - if you'd bothered to read Craig's comprehensive forecast notes written before lunchtime yesterday, you would have read the following:

"Now, as touched on in Monday's notes, winds move clock-wise around low pressure systems in the Southern Hemisphere but also tend inwards towards the low. This should help generate local offshore W/NW winds across the Surf Coast tomorrow morning, that may even persist into the afternoon, while Friday morning should again see offshores that will swing SW during the day as the low moves off to the west."

Craig also mentioned this possibility in Monday's forecast. So, you've have three days' notice that Thursday would be worth the effort.

As far as I am concerned, Craig's forecast for today is spot on. And, it's worth noting that Craig's forecast went against the highly-resourced BOM, who predicted (and are still predicting) "West to southwesterly 25 to 30 knots, reaching up to 35 knots in the far east until evening."

@ unsureofthis, Craig and Ben do a good crystal ball where I live.

You have to take the good with the spew,

Life is pretty amasing. Did you end up calling in for a beer on the way home with your friend...?

This guy Oc has mates down that way you could hook up with, 50ks north of Seaspray was pumping that day.
:)

wellymon wrote:

@ unsureofthis, Craig and Ben do a good crystal ball where I live.

You have to take the good with the spew,

Life is pretty amasing.

:)

It's so totally amaseballs.

It's like dancing on a cloud and patting a unicorn at the same time.

Unsureofthis, here are a few points.

This swell was forecast by the models since Monday, and if I remember correctly it initially had between 3ft and 4ft for today and tomorrow with W/SW winds.

Since then though the models upgraded the swell because the low that generated it moved more into Vicco's swell window and grew stronger. Even yesterday it had between 4ft and 6ft forecast for the Surf Coast today, with a drop from 4ft or so Friday.

This is the beauty of having the model forecast update 4x a day, it adjusts accordingly to these dynamic systems instead of sitting on the same forecast for 2 days as the old site did when I entered data Mon/Wed/Fri.

Totally understand the question about why don't we update the forecast graph if we disagree with the model output/winds, but you see this update would only last 6 hours until the next available data comes in and overrides this. So it's impossible to update the data or quality control it 4x a day, and for what it's worth the forecasts are pretty bloody good for a fully automated product!

On the wind, we know that the model forecast winds don't take into account local effects around the Surf Coast, and the BOM also focus on the broader scale rather than the local level, but regular users would recognise that when the Torquay morning wind forecast is W/SW and even SW (if lighter) you can usually expect morning W/NW winds. Same goes for the South Arm and Victor Harbour/Middleton forecasts.

Also the notes which I still do Mon/Wed/Fri pointed out that there would be a solid swell and offshore winds around Torquay as Ben pointed out.

These notes are linked to in the reports on Mon/Wed/Fri, but outside of this are sometimes hard to find.

We should have a 'forecast notes' tab built into the report/forecast page within the coming week hopefully.

FWIW I'm pretty chuffed on my forecast for the Torquay region today, and just a heads up, tomorrow morning will be pumping again, so all is not lost.

unsureofthis wrote:

Why isn't there a link right below the surf forecast tab saying 'Forecast Notes'. I'm sure your aware that copying and pasting a link and placing it in "A HREF" html tag is not difficult to do either.

We do this on each surf report page (the main entry point to the surf forecast), as soon as the forecast is updated, three times per week. It was added to the Torquay surf report page at 11:45am yesterday morning.

e wrote:

You could even try and integrate it directly with the most up to date forecast so you don't even have to cut and paste a new link each time. Secondly, why isn't Craig's predictions that appear to be right, integrated into the forecast. You say this is how our website is built ok fine, why isn't there to be an 'ACTUAL' or a revised forecast analysis which can easily be modified by the user making the predictions.

The reason is because it's incredibly time-consuming. We have thirty forecast regions, which forecast out to sixteen days, each of which are updated four times per day. That's 480 individual text fields for us to 'quality control', four times per day each are updated (with just two forecasters, who have a large range of other jobs to do each day as well).

e wrote:

Then I guess you'll say "just read the predictions from Craig". Then I'll say "why would you have even have bothered with the graphs and the swell predictions" when three days out they are wrong.

See the point above. Manually creating the graphs is extremely labour-intensive. Previously on our old website, Swellnet had only 30 forecast locations (which we punched out manually every day), and our lack of automated data prohibited us from expanding into any new Australian regions, let alone any new overseas locations (we now have ~2,200 locations internationally).

So, we started building a system to automate the majority of the forecast data. On the whole, the forecast system is really good - hands down the best forecasting system in the world - but it's not perfect. So, our 'expert notes' (for want of a better term) help fill in the blanks. I've been writing these forecast notes for the last fourteen years (it's what the entire Swellnet business is based on), with Craig taking over many locations over the last four years - however we are still very limited in what we can and can't do.

Looking ahead - for the last few weeks our website developers have been building a 'forecast notes' tab that'll sit alongside the surf report and surf forecast tab, which will make it easier to access the notes. And we'll integrate some snippets into the surf report/forecast pages to advise when these notes have been updated. In the meantime, you'll have to check back every Monday/Wednesday/Friday after lunch (on the surf report page) and look for the link. Or, head to the main Swellnet Forecast Notes forum category (which you would have scrolled past this morning, when looking for 'The Crystal Ball' category where you posted today's thread.. it's third on the list).

BTW, another website reported the Surf Coast today as being "junky onshore 2-4ft", with "winds up from the W/SW", and the surf being "hardly worth a paddle".

Which seems a little different to our surf report (written by someone who actually looks at the surf, and uploads daily photos), the Aireys Inlet AWS (which has been W/NW all morning) and also this screen grab from our Torquay surfcam a little while ago:

Good to know the new website is having some positive impact on crowd numbers!

Craig's forecast was spot on this morning, but Craig, don't talk tomorrow up too much! It's probably going to be spew, but then again, some people are into that.

So let me get this straight 'unsureofthis' you got up and drove 1 1/2 hours for a surf based on a forecast you got for FREE. Then when things didn't pan out you have the hide to come on here and criticize the forecasters and the surf reporters! That provide info you got for FREE.

What ever happened to the days of reading weather maps, taking a punt, taking the good with the bad, sometimes scoring sometimes ending up in the pub?

Maybe I should hit up the BOM for all the pettie I burnt in the old days booting down the coast and the wind swung just that too much S!

Ben and Craig, keep up the good work! BTW enjoying your new 'Eastern Beaches' report. Vague is good!!

The tab hasn't been finished yet (will hopefully be on the site next week).

In the meantime, we're adding the forecast notes as as a hyperlink to the Surf Report text, every Monday/Wednesday/Friday as soon as they're done (we've been doing this since early November).

Or, you can check the Swellnet Forecast Notes forum category for the relevant thread (usually updated around lunchtime Mon/Wed/Fri). 

Maybe the local surf reporters don't want townies coming down at all? fair play I say!!

Thanks unsureofthat, for giving us all an insight into the shit that Ben and Craig have to put with. Fuck, are all you younguns so reliant on one surf forecast that you don't know if the wind isn't going to be a bit iffy. Are these townies so useless that they can't work out when the southerly is coming in, don't worry about being a local mate, you'll always be a blow-in. That's just the way it is.

Hey Ben, I'll be going on a holidays soon, I''ll give you a slab of coopers to post a bad forecast for that week, I'll pm the destination and dates to you. :-D

Shaun would love that. Most people are baffled by his stupidity.

Don't be fooled though, Shaun aint as stupid as he looks.

The underlying issue that you want the world handed to you on a platter?
What are we missing?

He is Zen, he is.

If your impressed by the twats stupidity you'll be truly amazed by his complete lack of logic and ignorance of everything around him.

Oh Morris, you are so mean to shaun sometimes.

Yeah Fitz, he finds a picture of a guy in a suit and uses it for his profile and thinks he's better than the rest.

Hit the nail on the head lostdoggy.

Thanks Ben, I'll pay the price of the slab of coopers into your paypal account as agreed. Coopers is on special this week at my local so if you think I paid you $10 short that's why.

Shaun your priceless, an endless source of amusement.

Lost doggy the underlying issue that our good man unsureofit is trying to point out without using a sledgehammer is that Ben and Craig would have difficulty predicting surf conditions in a wave pool! There it's been said, it was on the tip of many tongues but the swell net community is full of nice blokes and no one wanted to be the one who said it, so thanks for bringing out into the open unsureofit and welcome to the forum.

unsureofthis wrote:

Shaun, I'm impressed by your stupidity. You can't even see the underlying issue here.

toounsuretopiss, the last guy who wrote words like that, nearly got his missus wrapped around a pole. Fools rush in where locals fear to tread.

unsureofthis wrote:

the underlying issue here.

If someone knows better than the model forecast, (including the wind obs in the time between which the models update) can't the info in the surf forecast tab, be appended with a basic something so that we (the majority of us), with our 2 second attention span, can see the most relevant info straight up?

It sounds like it should have a simple solution Mitch, but in reality it's way more complex. 

Remember, if this were somehow implemented, it then means that all 'tweaks' made would last only 5 hours max before being overwritten (if you presume that Craig and I can 'tweak' the forecast within an hour of it being made available).

And, we'd need to do this around the clock (because not everyone accesses our forecasts from 9-5, Mondays to Fridays). Which means we'd also have to work on Saturdays and Sundays too, just on the off chance that the model output was a little wacky over the weekend.

From business perspective - remember, this is a job, not a hobby - it's simply not sustainable.

Toneless-ness of text, the bane of my love life haha. Yeah nah all good, as others have suggested, this gap is one of the few defences of local knowledge.

Well, our written forecast nailed the gap in Torquay today.

And I can't believe you wrote "Yeah nah all good". Craig says it occasionally but I've never seen someone commit it to print!

@mitchvg you are too right..I spent 15yrs of my life reading charts,listening to the weather man,looking up BOM, driving thousands of k's only to get skunked, talking to locals, watching maps, learning weather patterns to discover the secret to my local..and I wouldn't have it any other way! you've gotta earn the right to surf your spot/s..not just expect someone else to tell you..then have a go at them for getting it wrong..I have a go @ swellnet for getting it right!!

it is brilliant when forecasts are wrong , it keeps the travelling punters somewhere else and not in the lineup making dodgem courses like say Winkipop , where I live and surf nothing beats local knowledge.
Just for the record your models which I am assuming are pulled from NOAA really are quite accurate for predicting swell arrival times, but sizes are so off the mark its not funny. The last 5 days have predicted tiny surf , we are now into our 5 th day of overhead surf. two of these predicted 1-2 ft days have been closer to dble over head at different times and tides. i am still in awe though of how accurate a computer can predict arrival times of new swell events.

thermalben wrote:

And I can't believe you wrote "Yeah nah all good". Craig says it occasionally but I've never seen someone commit it to print!

Nah yeh is more common around these parts.

unsirfistinmouth ,

don't you know that if you had of looked at the clouds the day before , along with an extremely basic synoptic chart from yesterdays " the sun " newspaper . finally confirmed by the " wind arrows " on the nightly news 7 day forecast .... that Shaun and Morris would be hiking at Wilsons Prom. with only one tent ..........
geez , it was all set in stone .....

TB: haha I know, fortunately I can infer your tone and realise you're not accusing me of a sin, unlike others I was eluding to above. Back on topic though, the forecast was nailed I agree, but obviously not accessed (no pun intended) by (some at least) in the '2 sec attention span generation'. I've got mates who know the forecast notes are there but just couldn't be effed reading them.

Cheers Barley. I guess one positive up shot of this might be that locals are forced to fine tune their local knowledge even further, to keep the upper hand on the blow ins.

inzider wrote:

it is brilliant when forecasts are wrong , it keeps the travelling punters somewhere else and not in the lineup making dodgem courses like say Winkipop , where I live and surf nothing beats local knowledge.
Just for the record your models which I am assuming are pulled from NOAA really are quite accurate for predicting swell arrival times, but sizes are so off the mark its not funny. The last 5 days have predicted tiny surf , we are now into our 5 th day of overhead surf. two of these predicted 1-2 ft days have been closer to dble over head at different times and tides. i am still in awe though of how accurate a computer can predict arrival times of new swell events.

NZer, have you been getting good waves in Tara's...?
Did you get some runs on the "Egg" in the winter..?Or somewhere else.
Go smoke a goat chump..! hahahha :)

southey wrote:

unsirfistinmouth ,

that Shaun and Morris would be hiking at Wilsons Prom. with only one tent ..........
geez , it was all set in stone .....

Gold...?
Probably down Bear Gully

inzider wrote:

The last 5 days have predicted tiny surf , we are now into our 5 th day of overhead surf. two of these predicted 1-2 ft days have been closer to dble over head at different times and tides.

Overhead for the last five days? Here's the daily surf report transcript from Torquay from Sun thru' Wed as written by Bob:

* Sun: A moderate SW onshore wind is producing choppy, bumpy waves around 2ft. Coming onto low tide around 8am. Nothing to get excited about but a few very average small waves to surf if keen.
* Mon: Some small inconsistent swell lines around 2ft with a light westerly wind early. Coming onto low tide around 8.30am. Some choices at the reefs and beaches for a small wave early.
* Tues: Small and inconsistent 2 ft waves with a light N wind. Better options in the beachbreaks east/west of Torquay but a few waves at Jan Juc
* Wed: Tiny 1ft waves at Jan Juc with the small swell having turned SSE...it's clean but not really surfable due to lack of size...maybe tomorrow!

All of this is well below head high, and as per my recollections the Torquay stretch was forecast accurately by the model all week.

Just to clarify too - our forecast (and reported) size ranges use "surfers feet", that is 3ft = head high. So, a forecast of 1-2ft implies wave heights somewhere in the waist to shoulder high range.

But Ben, inzider might be a lid rider so it would be dbl overhead to him..

Hi Ben , I dont live in Torquay (any more), I live on the West coast of the north island NZ. I was merely using winki as an example of how forcasts can adversley affect numbers in the line up, or when reports are wrong keep numbers away. As Torquay is fast becoming a fuckwits paradise I decided to get out.

Welly , I havnt been around the naki too much this summer, lots of time in South OZ desert working, but I hear from the lads its been pretty av. last sunday down the coast at ( chineese pronunciation) rent rd, was tiny in the morning but 6 ft sets by dark, There has been steady waves all week with a five foot pulse the other day on high tide @ rent rd. Its that time of year though so fingers crossed,
Did not get any days up the egg as was living lake tyers beach in vicco last winter, I was however
in NZ on an oil rig about ten mins drive from the manganui field on the days of the year, bluebird and fresh no wind. Boys were sending me plenty of texts rubbing it in though.
Fitzroy 21 , king reach around assumption there.

I was just taking the piss inzider, don't take it too seriously :)

hey fitties 21 , never serious , thats why I have my profile pic of a dick dragger about to get pounded by the lip. Its all fun and games. I have a swell time on the net.