El Nino and the Indian

From Bom - "While the tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) NEUTRAL, the CHANCE of an El Niño occurring in 2014 has increased".

Well, "BOM"...... No "CHANCE" about it........ Pissweak cyclones (cat1 at best) this season in FNQ........ Two tropical lows out beyond 170'.......... Lack of true monsoon rains in inland qld.....

ps "hail mary" was a touch of sarcasm from a previous thread........... Ask Donny ;)

sheepo ,
I think I coined the " hail mary " , of which at the time i'm still impressed of your conviction in one or two models outcomes , at close to 12-14 days out or whatever it was , Kudos ... obviously the Coral Sea and its above atmosphere is YOUR realm , and very much known like the back of your hand .

Don ,
I would suggest that until the last Sth Hem . Cyclones/Typhoons/Hurricanes finish , shows the end of what I would call the shoulder season of Indo . And when the Monsoon vacates or enters the top of the Austral continent would be specific ( Prime Indo Off season/Wet season ) .... although you could argue that Pacific , Aceh , Telos , etc etc are in another category . So by my reasoning the Early Season ( dry / season proper ) has only just begun , is about to begin or if you believe access g ( and its eastward bound southern Hem circulation ) then still a week or so away .
Regardless , apart from perhaps late next week its been WSW , SW or even W swells , and generally light & variable winds . Shit , Bali got a good soaking as little as two weeks ago .

Still stick by my early season ( season proper call ) . Which will probably peak early - mid may . But I'm not going to call specifics on that . Just that there's a fair chance the Swell trains in southern Indian will be well and truly up and running well before the Trades become entrenched . So for whoever loves the company of Brazillions , this is your window . Obviously other options further east of Sumbawa , and west of Java will enjoy this period .

Guys , i think some get too wrapped up in the ONI ( oceanic ) side of the ENSO chart , obviously this will impact where cyclones are formed , and for that sake in QLD's this is important . The IOD is very important for everywhere outside of Nthn QLD , and although Sheepio is quick to get on the " cyclones are only forming here or there scenario's . " the existance and path of ITA pretty much summed up the futility in this . And this is where the IOD , can sometimes influence this . The Nthn / Nth West Monsoon pretty much fed and directed this system .
But enough of that , ENSO itself is very important world wide , but purely the SOI ( atmospheric component ) is far more important to us in Aust . Sure the Oceanic ONI 3.4 region is a good measure , but without a " coupled IOD " then there is less influence .

Going forward Jamstec are Urging on the side of a Negative IOD at the moment , and obviously a strongish and most likely short lived El Nino . Most likely at this stage similar to 1972 , a little like 1982 and most likely not 1997 . The best match i've seen so far would be 1930 . But generally speaking no one here will remember and worst still , measurements of that period would be most likely be wanting for lack of a better word .
Note 1930 is the only year of an El Nino and Negative IOD , and as i said before the opposite doesn't and can't ( never say never ) exist ..... La Nina will over power the IOD and usually turn what would be a Positive IOD to Neutral if they are set to come on together .
Jamstec's forecast is still a little early as until late May the IOD is still in a uncertainty period for forecasts , and which usually firm up come June .
Anyway , enough Jargon .... fire away with Questions , of which i'll try to give an easy answer to . Rather than spewing out too much non relevant info .

donweather wrote:

Thanks Southey. Can I ask where you got that table from? It's odd that there's only been one year of positive IOD and La Niña which is very different information to what I've found?

Although I am only looking at a specific month in each year but still.

Don , as far as specific readings in particular months of the year go , if the month you are trying to study is not in between June and November . Then your wasting your time . The IOD is only influential or used within these months outside of this time the data , and signal are useless . This mainly comes down to the fact that there is far more water South of the Equator than North in the Indian Ocean .

As for the source of that table " IOD / ENSO " i linked earlier .

That table originally came from a published paper :
Meyers, G.A., P.C. McIntosh, L. Pigot and M.J. Pook, 2007: The years of El Niño, La Niña and interactions with the tropical Indian Ocean. J. Climate, 20, 2872-2880.

Latest version is here (up to 2008 incl):

" http://www.marine.csiro.au/~mcintosh/Research_ENSO_IOD_years.htm "

[ Props . to other WZ contributors for reminding me of the Source .]

Thanks Southey. I'm specifically looking at the months of late Sept-early Oct.

And that link/table that you just provided is fecking awesome....exactly the information I was looking for so thank you very much!! You da man!!!

The difficulty I now have from that new table is that there is no -ve IOD within the swell archive data I have access to (post 1997)!!!!

Very interesting ooposite diagonals on that table you provided Southey. ie very rare to rare events in opposite corners of the table (so very rare El Nino/-ve IOD versus La Nina/+ve IOD and similarly rare La Nina/-ve IOD versus El Nino/+ve IOD). Based on this, which is the chicken and which is the egg? ie does the sign/direction of the IOD dictate the ENSO or vice versa (does the state of ENSO dictate the sign/direction of the IOD)?

Don , we are heading into Geeky territory .....
2010 was a strong Negative IOD , and that coupled with the 2010/2011 La Nina which created such havoc down here in VIC / Western NSW and a little bit central / west QLD . Not so sure on the influence for coastal QLD , ( depends who you talk to ) , but personally i think it does but to a lesser extent .
If you search around the new site , there's plenty of other goodies ( links ) its very Marine centric , and mostly Austral .
People have corellated a 14 mth lag of ENSO to IOD and opposite signal . But I've yet to see this gain a success rate of over 70 % .
Personally i think the Nina is the normal deviation from Neutral , which will help influence the IOD into negative territory lagged . Then a Nino has very little influence on the IOD but the small amount of influence drags it towards Positive , not to the extent of the opposite stated above .
Nino itself could be triggered from a positive , but I would suggest its more of a coupling with the Nth Hem. recirc and perhaps the positive is only a trigger point or small necessary ingredient , ( of which is so complex no-one is the wiser ) not with certainty beyond 2 mths anyway .

Anyway enjoy .

Thanks Southey. BTW - My research is not with respect to Qld. I'm looking at Indian Ocean locations and their swell potential/correlation with IOD, ENSO etc. So far no great success, but have noticed that some locations in the Indian Ocean appear to be more consistent in a La Nina, whilst El Nino tends to be more hit and miss (ie larger swells but also smaller/flat spells). I will continue to delve!!!

I think you might bang your head against a wall there . Generally and loosely speaking most influence of ENSO on the IOD is confined to the Tropics and local winds / strengths , periods / in shoulder season of trades, the Austral summer / Autumn following a Positive IOD may feed excess Warm anoms into the Agulhas current and enhance thermal mixing east of Sth Africa . This may also have more impact on Nth Hem or Equatorial spost liek Aceh , Sri Lanka and teh maldives seasons . But generally speaking i would suggest that there is more importance in swell creation in the Indian from the ACW , and perhaps the Sub Tropical IOD .

But if you really want to get into it and describe one of the many theories i've heard and mentioned above , but not replicated well in precise hindcasting .
Try these links .
" http://web.science.unsw.edu.au/~nicolasjourdain/Communications_files/Pre... "

or

" http://www.clivar.org/sites/default/files/imported/organization/pacific/... "

Cheers Southey. That 2nd link certainly opens up ALOT of unanswered questions, but certainly posts some suggestions about what I'm trying to decipher.....ie, is there any way of predicting long term ENSO and swell prospects in the two largest oceans in the world...Indian and Pacific!!!

Just noticed +ve IOD forecast by BOM.

On their about IOD page, they show the 1997 +ve IOD. There's also warm anomalies off of the NSW SC; and cool Coral Sea anoms (El Nino year). In terms of ENSO, this was followed by a whopper LN...

Southey, this seems to be along the lines of your thinking right? And might interest you Freeride? And Don of course.

My thoughts: +ve IOD and El Nino (well -ve SOI at least) doesn't make sense.

Why wouldn't we simply have strong trades feeding into NE Aus (LN) and out off of NW Aus (+ve IOD)? (only 1978 on your link Southey).
If the above were a fair assumption, then, wouldn't the reverse also be true, EN & -ve IOD (only 1930)?

What's missing in my logic?

Aaaand in another thread, someone mentioned good things about SA and El Nino, lookin good now! Apart from the shark attack of course

Mitch think SST's .

The ITF ( Indonesian Through Flow ) , the currents that run from Far Western Pacific and South China Sea , flow down through the Indonesian Archaepalago into the Indian Ocean .... In a Strong El Nino , there is lower water temps and less flows due to lower comparison in Sea levels between the the two ocean basins . So this lack of flow can create less of an impact or infact a neagtive impact on Waters W/SW of Java and Sumatera . ( This zone is the Eastern comparison area of IOD readings . Strong Upwelling is a by effect of SST's and infleunce on the Atmosphere . El Nino will drag a Neutral IOD towards positive , which is what is most likely this year . But not a certainty yet , Bay of Bengal is a place of interest this month . If a strong Typhoon/cyclone forms up west of the Andamans and lingers that is almost a tell tale sign of an impending Positive IOD . with an accuracy of close to 75 % .

Another link for you guys , which includes a strong advocate of CAGW that shoots himself in the foot , by admitting to not previously recognising or including the PDO into their incompetent climate models .
Link " http://climatecrocks.com/2014/05/12/kevin-trenberth-on-el-nino-part-2/ "

EN = low SSTs & low sea level.
EN ---> low ITF flowrate into IOD E pole; low SSTs into IOD E pole; potentially even flow from IOD E pole to E & NE.

southey wrote:

Strong Upwelling is a by effect of SST's and infleunce on the Atmosphere

.
I'm unsure of this though, too many variables for me to tackle right now...

Meanwhile on coastals, saw their article about the anti CSG vid. "Some of Australia's best right point breaks are under threat" and "ultimately butchering perfectly healthy land and ruining the livelihoods of local farmers" such typical, narrow minded, romanticised, hippie bullshit. How about some useful options fuckwits.That stuff almost makes me wanna punch the computer, if it wasn't for a few sensible commenters there too haha. Anyway...

southey wrote:

Don ,
I would suggest that until the last Sth Hem . Cyclones/Typhoons/Hurricanes finish , shows the end of what I would call the shoulder season of Indo . And when the Monsoon vacates or enters the top of the Austral continent would be specific ( Prime Indo Off season/Wet season ) .... although you could argue that Pacific , Aceh , Telos , etc etc are in another category . So by my reasoning the Early Season ( dry / season proper ) has only just begun , is about to begin or if you believe access g ( and its eastward bound southern Hem circulation ) then still a week or so away .
Regardless , apart from perhaps late next week its been WSW , SW or even W swells , and generally light & variable winds . Shit , Bali got a good soaking as little as two weeks ago .

***Still stick by my early season ( season proper call ) . Which will probably peak early - mid may .***

But I'm not going to call specifics on that . Just that there's a fair chance the Swell trains in southern Indian will be well and truly up and running well before the Trades become entrenched . So for whoever loves the company of Brazillions , this is your window . Obviously other options further east of Sumbawa , and west of Java will enjoy this period .

Alright i was a little out on the Local winds ( but that depends on whihc part of teh Archipalego your in ) ..... But I tend to think that the season may suffer a little from here on in .
Perhaps with one or two decent swells sporadic in the the prime months . And maybe a decent end to the Maldives season ......

mitchvg wrote:

EN = low SSTs & low sea level.
EN ---> low ITF flowrate into IOD E pole; low SSTs into IOD E pole; potentially even flow from IOD E pole to E & NE.

southey wrote:

Strong Upwelling is a by effect of SST's and infleunce on the Atmosphere

.
I'm unsure of this though, too many variables for me to tackle right now...

Meanwhile on coastals, saw their article about the anti CSG vid. "Some of Australia's best right point breaks are under threat" and "ultimately butchering perfectly healthy land and ruining the livelihoods of local farmers" such typical, narrow minded, romanticised, hippie bullshit. How about some useful options fuckwits.That stuff almost makes me wanna punch the computer, if it wasn't for a few sensible commenters there too haha. Anyway...

I'm a little lost on that last line of your EN narrative .
I presume you are inferring that the IOD will influence back through the ITF to ENSO . I personally think not , and not via direct Oceanic influences if you said via the Atmosphere then I'd agree .... Alot of the WWB's that trigger a EN are born out of the Eastern zone of the IOD during a MJO pass which captures the Monsoon . In Early Jan onwards . Or in 97's case a fair bit earlier . This is after the IOD's influence on Australia , but thats only because of the Austral Atmosphere patterns at this time in Nov./ Dec. . The Oceanic signature is still there quite often all the way through the Sth Hem. wet season . Around through to the next " IOD uncertainty period " in April ......
This i believe is teh 14 mth lag that some papers reference where an opposing IOd signal leads the next ENSO signature the following year . Historically IOD's peak in Oct. and ENSO Dec. ( albeit late Dec. )

Your presumption is correct Southey. So if an EN needs to be triggered by WWBs, that suggests to me that LN is actually the "normal" conditions, and neutral is merely the statistical mean...

Back to my point above though, I think where I'm going astray is that I'm assuming ENSO controls the IOD

The JTWC have issued a TC formation alert for the Arabian Sea. From memory, the Arabian Sea didn't get one last year. Is this a hint of EN dragging the IOD towards +ve Southey?

Anyone managed to get their head around any of the Indian Ocean coutries' met services (including China) to see if there's any interesting data and/or analysis?

Attention Zen , ( read Quoted forecast at the bottom of my post . or look up Jamstec yourself )

& Mitch ,

Forgot about this thread .
That Arabian Sea hurricane / cyclone was born out of anomalously high SST's in the Western region which is the comparitive to the east ( west of Sumatra/ Java ) which forms the basis of IOD analysis .
It appears justy like a cyclone /typhoon in the Bay of Bengal , that such systems initiate a total " release " of pre built up SST's in the region and some say trigger the IOD in one direction of the other ....
I presume this is what JAMSTEC are basing their latest forecasts on . [ previously they favoured a weak Negative IOD in April , drifted towards neutral and now have a Hard On for Strong Negative IOD readings come " our " spring their fall ....

"
Notes from JAMSTEC

June 18, 2014
ENSO forecast: The developing El Niño is expected to reach its height in late boreal summer and then continue at least through the winter. After the late winter, it will evolve into an El Niño Modoki.

Indian Ocean forecast: The probability of a negative IOD is very high in the tropical Indian Ocean during summer and fall.
Regional forecast: Most part of Europe, Africa, Middle East, Russia, India, and Southeastern Asia will experience a warmer-than-normal summer owing to the development of El Niño. In contrast, the Far East including Japan will experience a cooler summer. In the Southern Hemisphere, most parts of Australia and South Africa will be colder-than-normal in austral winter while most parts of Africa and South American Continent will be warmer-than-normal.

In the boreal fall, most parts of Europe, Africa, Middle East, Russia, India, Southeast Asia, and Mexico will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, whereas most parts of China, eastern-central part of U.S., southeastern Canada, Korea and Japan will be in a colder-than-normal condition. The unique combination of a negative IOD in the Indian Ocean and an El Nino in the Pacific is similar to the situation in 1993, a year of record-breaking cool summer in the northeastern part of Japan. Indian sub-continent will experience a drier than normal summer monsoon season.

The Maritime Continent in Asia, Caribbean countries, and West Africa will also be in a drier-than-normal condition in the boreal summer and fall owing to the El Niño. On the other hand, wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for U.S., Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, and northern Brazil. Above normal precipitation is also expected in Japan in summer because of the active and somewhat prolonged Baiu-season. In the austral spring, the southern African region will be in a drier-than-normal condition
. "

" http://www.jamstec.go.jp/e/ "

So negative IOD and El Niño is forecast? Southey I thought you said this combo was almost impossible?

Don . Unfortunately I feel I can't answer that with confidence .
CSIRO paper / studies say that this has only happened once in recorded history .... But I'm completely unaware of how the IOD was measured back more than 30 years ago ... I believe it wasn't and as such anything prior was " hindcasted " ......
That's why I posted the Jamstec summary report notes .... Either it's a typo , or the Japanese with a far longer detailed history than Aust . Are onto something no-one else knows ... All I know from vague memory was that 1993 may have Been similar in ENSO ( but some countries have different thresholds for niño ) I have no recollection what so ever of the IOD ... But I think I can check a highly accurate proxy for that ...... Get back to you .

Forgot to mention . CSIRO had 1930 as the only year .... ( I mentioned this earlier in this thread ) . Japan ( Jamstec ) just noted it as extremely rare , but then compared to 1993 .
I doubt this , to start they were in a predominately positive PDO period then .... Unlike now where we are in a predominately negative PDO period , only that in the last six months it has swung positive for what I expect to be only a shortish time .

cheers Southey, still catching up on background reading! :|

Zenagain. jamstec's museum page looks like a good place to start researching the SE storm you were talking about http://www.jamstec.go.jp/e/museum/ Maybe even the kids page. I have a few kids pages bookmarked ;)

Southey: So in this last case. Your prediction of EN not setting in was based on historical data?

IOD +ve often occurs 14 months after atmospheric EN.

So that's presumably from a -ve (or neutral I spose). So, does it not follow that early EN and -ve IOD is possible?

Are you suggesting a correlation? E.g EN --> low ITF rate and those through flowing waters are fairly low temp --> -ve IOD?

And the IOD influencing the W PAC would be unlikely due to centrifugal force on the ocean, against the E of the archipelago?

Mitch ...
The IOD to ENSO 14 mth lag was in a published paper , which may have been by Nicholas Scaffetta , but for some reason a woman sticks out in my memory ?!
Anyway , it was postulated that with a high 70's low 80's percentage that the ENSO followed the IOD inversely ata 14 Mth time lag . And it was more so with a Negative IOD to El Nino transition . Unfortunately i'm hopeless with bookmarks and just changed laptops . I'll look on my wifes desktop when i get home for you .
I would have presumed this connection was more based on the Atmospheric link as opposed to ITF . But like your saying , when and if things are setup right , higher sea anomalies froma Strong Negative IOD in the Eastern Indian would reduce the ITF flow due to less sea height differentials between the WPWP ( Western Pacific Warm Pool ) and the Eastern Indian . It gets insanely complex though , as much of the flows are governed by water viscosity / ( i've forgotten the proper term ) , but it relates to the salinity fluctuations from fresh water runoff . And lastly there is a link to upwelling on the Indian side which increases temperature differnetials at the surface but also starts a faster subsurface current .
The leading scientists in this field struggle , most of teh info I've gleaned is by people studying patterns in the ENSO - IOD cycles as opposed to the actual forcings . Unfortunately everyone is looking for causality to link back to patterns as opposed to the other way around .
The Pacific is a much larger Ocean , and the land alignment at its western Border creates a bottleneck which also heightens the " buildup " of warmer waters there . Even the strongest reversal in the Indians Trades can't produce too much of a buildup due the Indonesian Archapalego's SW coastal alignment .
So waters still flow from the Pacific to The Indian regardless , its seasonal , typhoons can help along the process , but at the end of the day the only link from the Indian back to the Pacific is mainly via the atmosphere , higher SST's and water buildup from te Indian may restrict speed and quantity of flow slightly , but not enough to likely change the actual outlook for the ENSO .
Obvioulsy atmosphere wise MJO's passes will and are born out of the Indian and can go on to trigger WWB's and inturn Kelvin Waves that will trigger a El Nino .

Yes a strong El Nino then will see less flow and what does flow will be cooler through the ITF . Again Atmospheric influences will be present . This is why its very rare to have both a Strong Negative IOD and an El Nino . Remembering that a Negative IOD is formed from counter flow in the Indian , and is pretty much the El Nino of that basin . Both of these are anomalies to teh system .
This is only one of a handful of reasons to why i've stuck with my assumption that the El Nino would never be strong , and if at all barely on threshold this year . Many other Oceanic basins influence are included in this prediction , and the highets input is the 30-40 year trends in the PDO . ( Statistically El Nino's struggle to form are alot more rare and last signifcantly shorter in a period of Negative PDO dominance [ IPO ] ) .

Thanks Southey, think I tried to read that late in the evening too many times. Re-read now and got some grasp on it.

Not sure about inversely though. I can see a +ve IOD followed at approx 14 months by a +ve ENSO...

The IOD has been +ve for a bit now, TC Nilofar didn't seem to tap it on the head (suck the heat out of the NW Indian). If it keeps going +ve, then we might see EN peak in Oct '15? (14 months after bottom of -ve IOD).

Mistake on edit

+ENSO ?!? Do you mean El Niño ? !!!!!
The ONI ( surface water measure/ part of ENSO will be positive in El Niño ) but the SOI ( atmospheric component of ENSO ) will be negative at the same time ?!?

I'm pretty sure that the literature I read was inferring , opposite signal on 14 mth delay .
To make it easy use the terms Wet and Dry . It can all depend on how much moisture has been released from the atmosphere ( which is mostly oceanic surface temps but partly soil moisture content ) in year or two prior . That's why Nina and big ones tend to follow prolonged periods of Niño where sometimes they haven't been strong , but long or gone a long time without even a mild nina or anything nina side of neutral . Then all it takes is one solid Niño at the end of that period ( the rubber band slips [so to speak ] and we careen into a solid flooding nina or multiple ) think 2001-2010 . 1.5 Nina's , but a lot of borderline El Niño's .
I think we haven't seen the end of that built up venting . Keep ya hat on .

So the peak in an IOD signal ( when it has the most influence on SE Aust 's weather ) is in mid to late spring , and 14 mths later we have a ENSO signal peak in early to middle of summer ( when ENSO has it's biggest influence on SE Aust .

I might have to look back and check ..... Usually I have good memory for this shit , but it was 2-3 years ago that I read it .
All I know now , is we have had a couple of so so Infeeds , but more from a WNW as opposed to straight NW this season .... Another due sat-mon .... That's good for NSW ECL , but tends not to drag up much in the way of frontal / trough progression . Having little inflow from the pacific during such events tends to see the trough get cradled and down here we end up with wet easterlies . All I know is we usually don't see systems like this during building Niño 's . I would say that with 90% certainty that we won't have a Niño next year . It's barely borderline this year , next year will be either Nada , or weak to mild La Niña.
The Bay of Bengal cyclone signal is about if one forms in May . Then the following spring will be dryer . But they only have a 60-70 % correlation on that . There's more at play I. All of this , it's just hard to finger exactly which variables change others and at how much ?!!
The best predictor for next summer is , it's been an extremely dry spring in the far NW of Vic and in the far NW corner of WA late winter all through spring .
So next early summer will be wet . (According to that theory , which is 60-70 % )
but I would push that higher to 80-90% .

southey wrote:

Don , we are heading into Geeky territory .....
2010 was a strong Negative IOD , and that coupled with the 2010/2011 La Nina which created such havoc down here in VIC / Western NSW and a little bit central / west QLD . Not so sure on the influence for coastal QLD , ( depends who you talk to ) , but personally i think it does but to a lesser extent .
If you search around the new site , there's plenty of other goodies ( links ) its very Marine centric , and mostly Austral .
People have corellated a 14 mth lag of ENSO to IOD and opposite signal . But I've yet to see this gain a success rate of over 70 % .

Personally i think the Nina is the normal deviation from Neutral , which will help influence the IOD into negative territory lagged .
****
Then a Nino has very little influence on the IOD but the small amount of influence drags it towards Positive , not to the extent of the opposite stated above . ***

Nino itself could be triggered from a positive *** ( 14mth lag ) *** , but I would suggest its more of a coupling with the Nth Hem. recirc and perhaps the positive is only a trigger point or small necessary ingredient , ( of which is so complex no-one is the wiser ) not with certainty beyond 2 mths anyway .

Anyway enjoy .

This was from one of the original posts I made early in this thread and around April ?
Note everything after the large line break , is poignant .
And *** are clarifications *** .

How's that " El Niño " treating everyone .........
" the El Niño , we had to have " ..
Not sure I've ever seen wide spread stalled continental troughing during one , let alone an ECL ....
JAMSTEC - 1, Sheepdog -0 , southey = fence burns ....... ;-))

Big peak in the IOD Southey... And cyclones over there..

Yeah Mitch .
Although strictly speaking the IOD is irrelevant from early mid November . ( especially Northern Hem . ) note that the lead ul to it was probably primed by the IOD , and I. Saying that the two of them most likely triggered the positive IOD ending .
" http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview "
Note the subsurface returns if you get the chance . It's goung to swing like a saloon door when we get cool upwelling again . We are already starting to see warmer surface waters spread back west . ( which is more a product of this years wider spread as opposed to sharp /high index .
Regardless with so much warm water on every other surrounds of Aust . As soon as th Pacific returns to the party , it's going to get full on.

sarge4 wrote:

Anyone keen to chuck their hat in the ring and make some early predictions about the impeding Indian Ocean season. Are there further opinions on the influence of El Niño?

Curious as well sarge what 2016 will bring if the El nino continues , 2015 was a stella year for our points i would like to see a repeat this year but my decades of direct observation plotted onto graphs, color coded with El nino La nina and neutral years, possibly suggest this wont be the case going on the patterns i am starting to see on paper , but time will tell , C'mon El nino muscle up ...

One more year of El Niño please....

Blowin wrote:

One more year of El Niño please....

If we were to have another El Niño , 3/4 of Australian farmers would be forced off their land . And we would be in serious water rations . Even a moderate La Niña would be of little help .
The PDO is the key , the if that goes negative then we shall see rapid free fall into a string La Niña , and up until a few weeks ago I would have said its a monty . But a recent WWB has put the brakes on a little . And added to uncertainty . One thing is for sure , I'd avoid following the long term forecast models like the plague .

The late nineties were dominated by Positive PDO ( Higher El Nino prevalence , and a trending to deeper culminating in 97 supe ElNino ) . Late 2000 was opposite in that we entered a Negative PDO trend , culminating in a Super La Niña . This is a measure of the Nth Pacific SST's , and it's influence on the ENSO ( tropical pacific SST's ) of which most already know well .
SoCore , you are talking about the Indian and Southern Ocean , but they are connected . The Indian isn't as well studied . So yeah I've proxied your dates .
One thing has changed from those two dates in the Indian Ocean . And that is the overall higher SST throughout the basin ( more southern ) than the areas of Tropical waters that measure the IOD . ( the mentawai Islands are at the northern edge of the eastern region which is compared to the western region ( near Yemen ) that is the reference differential for the IOD .
Climate scientists have long held fears that subtropical ridges ( highs ) will migrate south and increased areas of tropical doldrums . This will inturn compress / strengthen the southern westerly belt. So we have general warming and increased tropical region.
As Blowin has pleaded , the doldrums you spoke of are at further south locales , like Bali .
Whether this is a cyclical pattern or AGW we don't know yet ,as I said earlier there wasn't much historical reference for the regions SST patterns . Hopefully the Indian Ocean isn't the Canary in the coal mine !
( pardon the pun) .

Southey, you mention - '3/4 of Australian farmers would be forced off their land'. I assume you mean the central and west Qld areas ? Would it not be fair to assume that farming produce would change. Maybe more cattle less wheat or some such. Given we know little about the Indian Ocean patterns, changes would be slow and hence allow for change in farming methods and infrastructure (e.g. dams) to handle the variances.

I was answering Blowin , when he pleaded for another El Niño . As it made things good for him in Indo. As the westerlies were not a forgone conclusion each day , during the offseason . Instead more doldrums like . Which allows more exposed spots to be surfed than usual . The ment's struggle to get these small mid swells as they don't have Aust shielding the contaminant swell that can fuck up the offseason that SoCird is talking of .

As for farming yeah , well even places like SW Vic and Tassie are hurting ( known to be almost drought proof in the past . Three Quasi El Mimi's in a row will fuck the balance up . Coming too close in the back of the milenijm drought with only one flood in between .
Don't stress too much though , I'm confident of some sort of break .

BOM are onboard the double wammy negative IOD and La NIna combo ...... Just......
( very tentative /conservative as per usual ) .

Caml .
The IOD is probably more of a Nth Hem. Indian Ocean SST' measurement. So in opposites to the ENSO measure .
This year was very easy to call as it involved a large upwelling event that started off the coast of Somalia Africa . The actual reading was large , but no doubt the previous basin wide record warmth proceeding it helped perpetuate it off a sharp trigger ( upwelling ) .
So in this instance physically the -IOD is exactly the same mirror opposite to a La Niña . With the Maritimd continent the heat in the sandwich .
People keep looking at the actual temperatures in the Central /Eastern Pavific surface snd sub surface and now it's warmed a little some were saying it won't happen . But it doesn't matter how cold it stays .
With record warmth on the East Coast and Nth Coast of Aust. The differential setup will deliver SOI /atmospherics will deliver a decent La Niña regardless of actual ONI temp indexes in Nino 3.4 etc .... !!

Will read back if get chance southey . Is it possible to talk in more simpler language I think thats the main problem ? Then more ppl might understand as well . You were onto this way back but again theres a language gap . One things for sure and that's this weather is so wacky for 5 months already it is extreme

For southey, that was simplified.

Hey Southey, what's your thoughts on the duration for La Nina this season? Early build-up conditions and (some) record rainfalls already in the Top End. Some are calling an average wet season ahead, whilst I am of the belief that this may be a pretty good (better than average) wet right through. Your thoughts?

Yes sorry Hako .
I wrote without reading it . Short on time atm .

Fitz. I think that the models and anime are asked so I would expect this to play out like a typical LaNina .
Not overtly wet but above average certainly .
Sth of the tropics will continue to cop a flogging for atleast another month .
So as I tried to insinuate the Indian Ocean carry on from the -IOD will definitely make the first half well above average .
Whether or not early WWB snuff out the pending La Niña waters before it remains ensconced is another thing .
The Nth Hem , Pacific is really starting to react now , as that Blob of Warner water is feeding accross and entering the ITF ( Indonesia through flow ) . So once that Nth Hem is block is removed and the PDO sides more back negative then it could perpetuate and we see a double Niña . Whichever is strongest first or second is anyone's guess . But if the -PDO presumes back fro it's two year hiatus in positive then we would be looking at La Niña's statistically lasting as long as 36 mths but on average atleast 18 mths . !?

i wish i knew what all that meant. it sounds interesting.
But i read it twice and nearly passed out, it just doesn't sink in

If your genuinely interested just google the words / acronyms you don't understand .
I'm no rocket scientist and no teacher either . Hence i understand it , but can't convey it well to people new to the subject . I believe BOM have a few pictorial , video presentations on such . ?!

Yeah this is a great video: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/iod/

Nice info, thanks southey and craig