WAMS
BW, we're merely plotting the weather output given to us from the relevant government service (in this case, the USA). Ain't no motive behind the programming at all - it's just heating up these tropical lows a little more than they're likely to be.
Long range models are good in some synoptic setups, and bad in others. And they're also good in some areas, and bad in others. The Tasman Sea - as a basin - is not as reliable for long range forecasting compared to the Southern or Indian Ocean. However, it'd be a little silly of us to offer a 16 day forecast for only a portion of our database.
Anyway, over time you'll become familiar with those weather patterns which the model resolves well at long range, and those which it doesn't. That's what forecasting is all about! Pattern recognition.
BW, I've been watching exactly the same as yourself and I'm beginning to wonder....? I know that it is such an inexact science upon forecasting weather weeks ahead of schedule.
But as Ben has said "That's what forecasting is all about! Pattern recognition."
So I'm hoping that this pattern that is being forecasted! might actually eventuate and we could all be in for a cracker summer of good swell :) fingers crossed.
Somewhere something incredible is waiting to be known.
Thanks for the response TB. I figured as much, definitely wasn't suggesting the models are rigged for what ever motive, was more of a joke. Interesting that you note that long range models are more accurate in certain areas. I'm originally from WA and I recall long range models are fairly spot on. I imagine that any tropical developments are going to be harder to predict as the systems are generally smaller and more sporadic.
Lets keep our fingers crossed ay Welly!
bigwagon wrote:I imagine that any tropical developments are going to be harder to predict as the systems are generally smaller and more sporadic.
You've nailed it on the head.
Also GFS seems to be the least performing model of late. And all WAMS are based on the GFS weather model.
Take the long range charts for a TC off the NW WA coast in 8-10 days time. GFS is still not even interested. Access G and EC have been forecasting this for the last few days now (although the EC website is currently down today).
Lets see what actually happens up there for around mid next week.
Things seem to be shaping up nicely for next weekend for SE QLD
I check the WAMS on the regular (SE Queensland). During extended periods of poor surf (now), one will eagerly anticipate what colours and isobars begin to form when the meter ticks past 100 hrs. Since early December I've noticed that, according to the WAMS, the stars begin to align beyond the 100 hours. Flat topped highs are met with tropical lows just above NZ suggesting an extended run of quality east swell. But as the days draw closer, the models change for the worst.
It looks to be happening again. At 180hrs a big high is moving into position, slowly making its way to NZ, a tropical low is then forecast to slide down, squeezing those bars. Are the extended forecasts just a programmed tease which keeps drawing me back? Or are such extended forecasting models capable of predicting, with some degree of accuracy, weather patterns?