Solar flaring, CME's and coronal hole streams
Yep, looks like we'll start returning to more 'normal' summer weather into early Jan.
Stoked.
It’s starting to feel Christmasy around here.
Good stuff and Merry Xmas all, thanks for a year of Swellnet and all the waves and all the articles and comments! I've been surfing 30 years this next year coming, thinking of taking the year off (in a manner of speaking) and just surfing...
Craig, as you know far more about the physical composition of the weather, I wonder if it would be possible to take all the atmospheric data of the bombing low, grabbing some astrophysical data too (such as force of solar wind/direciton/magnetism etc) and finding a way to jam it together to quantify if it did enhance the bombing low, hour by hour. Anyway a bit too PhDish for me at present, buying some beer might be the easier path on Dec23...
Mechanisms of solar and galactic forcing of the atmosphere described:
The science of our climate modeling, at the highest levels, is about to change...
Just doing some fact checking:
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Suspicious0bservers
"Pillars of bollocks."
Perhaps you should follow the links to the peer reviewed articles he mentions, including Princeton, Yale, Harvard, AGU, and even IPCC reviewers? The point being the science is evolving and we are beginning to have a more complete view of the entire amount of forcing to the climate models, both from within (including CO2), and from without, including cosmic rays, solar wind, magnetospheres, CMEs, coronal holes, solar magnetic fields. FWIW I think he's jumping the shark a bit with the catastrophism and solar micronovae bit (worth considering though...), but his research of scientific papers has revealed the incorporation of extraneous forcing, forcing that is not attributed as being beyond a constant in climate modeling; but should be in the 2022 IPCC report.
For eg:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018JA026425
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFMGP51B..02F/abstract
https://phys.org/news/2014-05-earth-magnetic-field-important-climate.html
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19760007443.pdf
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0207270
https://www.princeton.edu/news/2018/01/10/spotty-coverage-climate-models...
a particularly angry one by an IPCC reviewer:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.00165.pdf
the big one: mathematicians were able to discover a double dynamo wave inside the sun and show a summary curve "reveals a remarkable resemblance to the sunspot and terrestrial activity reported in the past millennia including the significant grand solar minima: Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), Wolf minimum (1200), Oort minimum (1010–1050), Homer minimum (800–900 BC) combined with the grand solar maxima: the medieval warm period (900–1200), the Roman warm period (400–10BC) etc. It also predicts the upcoming grand solar minimum, similar to Maunder Minimum, which starts in 2020 and will last until 2055."
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3
This ongoing study will result in a far more nuanced view of forcing of Earth's climate. There are a few wildcards in the present scenario that do portend very badly for all of us and the nature we love: CO2 and increasing emissions; changes (lessening - being recorded) in the magnetosphere of the earth which will interrupt upper level atmospheric processes and probably the entire atmosphere; the rapidly declining solar output (measured and predicted to be a grand minimum, and coming down from an incredibly strong 11,000 year maximum which peaked about 1950) with resultant contraction of the heliosphere and increasing cosmic ray infiltration and thus low level cloud and precipitation events; then there's the acceleration of the shifting of Earth's geomagnetic poles and potential extra weakening of the magnetic field. Think I got everything for now. One thing for sure, it's going to take a multidisciplinary approach to synthesise all this and work out how much of each contributes.
In the meantime and despite the political debate, every approach suggests the same thing - increasingly variable weather with increasing extremes as the massive changes take place. Good luck to everyone, mitigate and protect against each potential threat if possible. I'd suggest getting good at indoor gardening.
For now, this thread is useful to report on coronal hole streams and high KP events, so as to observe with any intensification of storm systems and perhaps 'pin the tail on the donkey' in real time, which is very satisfying.
Yeah, nah VJ. When your principal source lacks credibility, their interpretation of secondary sources is irrelevant. Based on your vid link it appears he likes to cherry pick his evidence to support his conjectures. A quick search using google scholar shows no published work by your man. YouTube is not considered an accepted source in PhD studies. There may well be something in some of his theories, but I think your comment "The science of our climate modeling, at the highest levels, is about to change..." may be a bit optimistic. Anyway, enjoy your day.
you too, lol @ rationalwiki btw pot meet kettle
OK we've got the first solar flare of cycle 25 inbound, and quite a decent storm lining up for SE Australia - might correlate with its landfall.
Maybe have a squizz at those KP indexes over the next few days. Here's the BOM's KP link:
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Geophysical/1/3/1
Also, Atlantic is chockas full of potential hurricanes at present with this on the way
Hey VJ, models have been forecasting this cold outbreak across SE Aus for over a week now, so not sure how the solar flare could be linked to this storm.
Also this is the third storm in as many weeks and, if anything, it looks less intense than the other two.
Yeah the cluster of storms the past couple of months have been from the emerging La Nina.
Aussie scientists find date of Laschamp magnetic excursion, approx 41,000 years ago:
https://theconversation.com/we-found-the-first-australian-evidence-of-a-...
Very close to the approx 42,700 years ago given as a date for quite a few megafauna extinctions, out of interest. Not sure if linked, probably some pretty exciting science in researching this one.
5/3/21 NZ earthquake cluster 7.1, 7.3, 8.1, tsunamis
3/3/21 Aus issues geomagnetic advice of coronal hole stream inbound
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Geophysical/2/1
One school of thought is that there is some relation between the two (adding: strong low pressure cell interaction - there is currently a strong low pressure system moving up the Tasman)
Dutchsinse with a visual update on it:
(He has his own ideas on how they move and occur tho)
What about the Japan activity the other week? Would say this activity likely linked to that.
And the strong frontal progression in the southern Tasman Sea isn't anything too significant, but owing to a strong node of the Long Wave Trough.
I haven't clicked the links above yet, just putting my thoughts down first.
5/3/21 ...continues...[ 6.5 ] is the 4th Wave in the Tsunami Wave Train.
Everytime that Yuppie's Rocket crashes into our Planet it triggerz an Earthquake.
https://media4.giphy.com/media/n6uToGd0j3vdnKCq63/giphy.gif
Clive should sue him for End of the World Dr No Titanic Destruction copyright breach.
Interesting stuff VJ, but correlation is different to causation. I’m completely open minded about it.
On the other hand, all weather, ALL WEATHER, is generated by the sun, so it isn’t entirely bizarre to think that CMEs and other sun phenomena has a genuine effect on weather.
Take that up with carbon dioxide levels, which have been shown repeatedly, and through chemical theory, to hold solar heat, and while accepting that solar activity has a significant input, carbon dioxide levels are the more likely culprit for climate change.
But yeah, super interesting.
No worries on the queries crew, if I understood the earthquake prediction stuff better I'd probably run a prediction website, ha! Batfink, this thread has been up a long time and I think there's a link to a paper above describing how solar storms affect the atmospheric column directly, around the event.
Meanwhile, there are plenty of big storms that occur without an upcharged near-term solar input. And plenty of studies have followed Svante Arrhenius showing that CO2 traps heat.
Now, more spun out stuff, back to that Laschamps geomagnetic excursion, about 41,000 years ago:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6531/811
From the abstract:
" We find that geomagnetic field minima ~42 ka, in combination with Grand Solar Minima, caused substantial changes in atmospheric ozone concentration and circulation, driving synchronous global climate shifts that caused major environmental changes, extinction events, and transformations in the archaeological record."
Probing into the study might be required, but if they have precisely determined this, the timeframe is when a number of studies of Australian megafauna extinction occurred. This would tip the hunting/climate debate on its head - for it would be a geomagnetic excursion responsible! And thus more on the 'climate side', but with an input coming out of left-field.
Going through that quote too, much of the phenomena mentioned, is occurring right now.
Yeah VJ, not discounting anything. Got caught down a YouTube rabbit hole not so long ago, it was a long documentary on how the reversal of the magnetic poles would see a reversal in the earth’s spin, which would naturally result in substantial loss of most of human life. I thought, ‘well, thats shit, momentum laws clearly see that as a total crock of shite.
Interestingly though, some decades ago, they found shell fragments and other debris from a tsunami up in the blue mountains and all along the east coast of Australia indicating a freaking far out huge tsunami of proportions that would wipe out all humanity on the wrong side of the Great Dividing Range. They thought it was in the vicinity of 10K or more years ago. No doubt the indigenous heritage would have some stories of it.
As said before, not discounting anything. The anti climate change mob are grabbing onto every shaky vessel they can, including this one, but that doesn’t mean it has no validity. Davtherave said it best, thinking that we are all part of a greater whole that includes planets and the sun.
Such interesting times.
And yeah, I didn’t have as much time over the past 4 years to keep track of discussions happening on swellnet.
Back to reporting solar stuff, and the last 4 weeks or so have seen the sun wake up for this solar cycle, we've had CMEs and a C3 solar flare approx April 22.
https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/mars-directed-cme-erupts-from-the-sun
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news.html
A couple of non-Davidson links up there to check out.
Did we see any storm intensifications around the planet - I dunno, have yet to check or look at it and even if so, correlation may not be causation. I did read reports of some electronic systems having problems, and our internet did go slow!
TV tonight is doing that ode to Crustal Displacement, "2012"
This is extremely cool.
Scientists have solved Jupiter's "energy crisis" (the difference in upper atmospheric heat observed - damn hot - compared to what we would expect it to be that far out - cold) and it's.... Auroras.
https://www.independent.co.uk/space/jupiter-energy-crisis-nasa-jaxa-auro...
“We found that Jupiter’s intense aurora, the most powerful in the solar system, is responsible for heating the entire planet’s upper atmosphere to surprisingly high temperatures,”
There's a neat video of the heating coming from the aurora. As we know, auroras come about by disturbances in the magnetosphere of a planet, caused by solar winds. So here is a direct exogenous heating input through the magnetic field lines of a planet, pretty cool stuff.
Paper in Nature of discovery:
Oh wow, thanks VJ, will read in more detail later.
Data point: Victoria 5.9 earthquake 9:15:54am AEST today coincident with arrival of coronal hole stream
"(Sep 20) All space weather is quiet. We are monitoring the active regions for eruptive behavior and expect a coronal hole steam to arrive Wednesday or Thursday." - that was from Space Weather News
Planetary K index rose from calm to Kp4 about 0000 UTC on 22nd
I was thinking of having a quick glance of this yesterday. Looks like there's no link.
Active regions being on the sun yeah, not on Earth? Kp4 is relatively weak as well. Get them all the time so yeah no cause/effect.
Tend to agree. An individual hole stream and Kp4 is nothing unusual. The only difference from last year is that the sun cycle has turned and there is an active sun with lots of sunspots and quite a few flares currently, a cumulative bombardment if you will. Volcanic action is certainly making the news, too.
https://www.theplanetstoday.com/
To throw in extra detail, clicking back to the 22nd doesn't show any horror-obvious planetary alignments either - maybe Earth and Mars in opposition is all I can see, but I'm not too skilled in reading these. Reason for posting is some feel significant solar/geologic events correlate to certain alignments - again, take with need for much research/correlation is not causation.
Cool stuff - ancient solar storm recorded in trees dates Viking presence in North America over 1000 years ago:
https://www.iflscience.com/editors-blog/ancient-solar-storm-reveals-viki...
"But how did the researchers find such an exact date? This is one of those discoveries where the methodology is just as interesting as the result – it all comes down to a massive solar storm that occurred in 992 CE. The sky turned red, the aurora borealis was seen as far South as Germany, and a distinct radiocarbon signature turned up inside trees across the planet."
Norse god of the sun is called Sol (pronounced "soul") and is female, btw
X Class solar flare Oct 28 about 1600 (UTC I think) - about when we got blown away with 100+km/h winds
CME of flare supposed to be arriving soon (early on 31st US time) - was pointed directly at Earth
Happy All Hallows Eve/All Souls Day/Day of the Dead everyone!
and M class flare a few days afterward, impacted with two pulses in the KP7 range, providing incredible lights shows of aurora borealis and aurora australis:
NZ one is rather epic:
If these are seen planetwide and everything electronic stops working, not that it will matter, but time for that old REM song.
And Mount Wellington:
the snow is a nice touch
Now that’s impressive, thanks for sharing VJ. Anything visible down your way? We get too much light here.
March has been extremely active with many solar flares.
And at the time of writing, we have another, an X class flare, inbound.
Interesting: solar storm, maybe some Aurora Australis for us southerners:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Solar/1/4
Currently reading KP7, which might get to Victoria. Has been occuring today, maybe to continue into the night.
https://7news.com.au/technology/massive-solar-storm-due-to-hit-earth-spa...
How's this for techy. The NASA model nailed that incredible aurora seen across Vic/SA and even southern NSW earlier in the week.
Direct Hit at long last! A #solarstorm launches while in the Earth-strike zone today. NASA prediction shows impact by mid-day November 5. This storm will be sandwiched by glancing blows before & fast solar wind after, making #aurora possible to mid-latitudes until November 10! pic.twitter.com/wMAYTy2Rdn
— Dr. Tamitha Skov (@TamithaSkov) November 4, 2023
And this..
An unbelievably vivid rainbow #aurora curtain in Finland during yesterday's G3-level #solarstorm. What an amazing capture. Thanks for reporting! https://t.co/I5AtomNNyG
— Dr. Tamitha Skov (@TamithaSkov) November 7, 2023
That's awesome Craig!
Nice recap of the Kp index at 59s, seemed to peak in the 7's at 1800 UT which is about 5am AEST on the 7th. Had some nice thunderstorms overnight about 3am...
"a rare display of naked eye auroras is in progress. "In 10 years plus of shooting aurora I've never seen anything like it," says Oliver Wright, a long time guide of Lights over Lapland..."
Wait for it… Incredible aurora witnessed by pilots of an Air Portugal night flight from San Francisco to Lisbon 🤩 pic.twitter.com/KK3yfbnGpA
— Zoom Earth (@zoom_earth) November 9, 2023
Cool.
Who needs space travel to dusty old Mars when we have so much to see on earth and an accessible alien world underwater.
Joke's on the Mars explorers Frog - the planet has very little in the way of protective magnetic field (a few small patches) so any CME or coronal hole stream is instant suntan.
also
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/mars-quakes-volcanic-activity-planet...
a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away
https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-galactic-war-of-aliens-the-colossal-ta...
KA BOOM!
1/1/24 Largest solar flare of the cycle so far, we had an X Class flare
At same time, 7.6 earthquake in Japan
"Tuesday 02 Januarylast updated 01/2321 UT
Solar activity on UT day 2-Jan is expected to be at the R1-R2 level, with a chance of R3. The solar wind speed is expected to be light to moderate. G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected. A fast CME was observed following an X5.0 flare on 31-Dec, this event is expected to produce a glancing impact with Earth early on 3-Jan, with a chance of an early impact on 2-Jan. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be mostly normal. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced. Shortwave fadeouts are probable."
Vj
I wrote on another thread that a bloody big hole opened on the Sun a month ago .
Grew to 59’worlds in 24 hours .
Was joking and blamed the crappy weather on it .
Bloody earthquakes ?
Not much us humans can do about this hole and all the sun stuff spewing out .
Probably just another passing phase?
Pop Down wrote:Vj
I wrote on another thread that a bloody big hole opened on the Sun a month ago .Grew to 59’worlds in 24 hours .
Was joking and blamed the crappy weather on it .
Bloody earthquakes ?
Not much us humans can do about this hole and all the sun stuff spewing out .
Probably just another passing phase?
Was that a coronal hole Pops? They can get really big and extend into the other hemisphere, especially in solar minimums. We are at a solar maximum currently.
The earthquakes correlate to the CME's and flares...
Oh, was going to post in the daily good news thread, but Craig's happy news should take precedence: on 13th Dec my boys and I were checking the surf and all got hit by lightning. It was a rad feeling! Anyone else ever been struck?
2:00 to 7:00 - particles are still inbound as of time of post
After, Dutch has a go at where pressure has shifted to, and where to look for next shocks
12:00 great layman's explanation about how it works, how the energetic particles affect the planet's magnetosphere and ionosphere, down to the crust, then back out and what that entails...
VJ - I shouldn’t have commented on this thread as have NFI and don’t Star gaze , much .
I was able to find the article on a site I rate highly and hope this helps .
Formed on the 2nd of Dec , a dark hole with unusually fast radiation , 60 world big in 24 hours . Started pointing ( how does a hole point lol ) directly at earth on the 4/12 , temporary gap , solar wind easing .
Grand Max peaked in 1958 .
Steepest decline in rate in 9300 years .
Another 11 cycle something .
I said when I posted the first message that the opposite of what I expect , probably happens .
IF the rate IS declining , I hope that’s good for us humans , at least for a while .
Bon chance working out my gobbledygook !
No worries, that seems about right, yes the grand maximum peaked in 1958. Should be declining solar cycles - however this one is a bit stronger than the last. Decline rate is indeed steep. Also: reduction of magnetosphere, reduction of heliosphere, resultant increase in galactic cosmic rays being detected at Earth's surface (and effect on weather: Svensmark, The Cloud Mystery). Magnetic poles are wandering as well, by the way - an update on where they really are would be very welcome. Strange weather and seismicity on other planets in the solar system too. Baktun calendar count ended in 2012, we are at the other side of the great wheel of precession from the dawn of the age of Leo, about 12,000 years ago - when the Younger Dryas carnage occurred (time's up). But I'm getting mystical on that last stuff.
Dark hole with fast radiation (coming out of it) on surface of sun suggests a coronal hole.
Hey VJ ( Sherlock Holmes )
Just absolutely amazing what goes on around me , without me knowing .
The Universe is more incredible the closer I look .
I love all the Mystery and Mystics .
Even starting to believe in Astrology , but am a Virgo at it .
Keep Looking Up , please :)
Oops!! This interview on climate change did not go as well as the leftist media planned. pic.twitter.com/rikE2is02f
— verica (@VDejan0000) December 6, 2023
Figure the forums was the best place for this.. sent in by Swellnet reader John a few weeks ago. It's out of my area of expertise but I'm curious...
"Have you ever considered the link between solar flaring, CME's and coronal hole streams; and the 'turbo-charging' of existing weather systems? Pertinent at present as we have an X Class flare (9.3) inbound, on top of a CME presently affecting us, plus a coronal hole stream... and... that very large hurricane breaking records as it bears down on Cuba/Florida.
The basic premise is that solar particles bombard the earth's upper atmosphere with extra hydrogen ions in solar storm conditions, IIRC energy of this plus H joining with O in upper atmosphere adds to the storm/adds water. As earth's magnetic fields weaken (happening) the chances of solar particles getting through increases. I'd be fascinated to see if these conditions correlated with the stories Swellnet sometimes runs on sub tropical lows intensifying in the southern ocean, or bombing ECLs".