Surfing 2025

Could be wrong, but...serangan?
No doubt crowds will increase. Better make the most of the next few years or so, especially if you like surfing popular spots.

Ditto on the Chinese surfing future.

It's natural selection at work, only a matter of time before all the tourists that keep drowning or getting pulled out of the break by surfers & life savers start to learn how to navigate the surf and eventually get on a board.

If you think surf etiquette is poor now then just wait!

Serangan, went for a surf there last year on a small day to meet up with some guys staying on that side.

Saw a bunch of chinese learners drifting out the back on softboards, with lifejackets on.

Thought, fuck this, surfing is done.

.

Ha with life jackets on?! That actually made me laugh out loud. Lord help anyone learning to surf that can't swim well enough to not need a life-jacket.

I can't think of anything worse than facing a rogue bomb set with a life jacket on.

Yep, I was there in November and saw a woman standing on a SUP with a lifejacket on getting pushed onto head high waves. It's getting a little bit crazy .

Was a whole surf school drifting around when I was there. Life jackets on laying down on the board drifting where ever the currents took them. I had a visceral realisation that surfing, as I have known it, is over.

Thank Christ Drouyn failed with the Chinese all those years ago .

Fellow surfers and lovers of the littoral, the coastal scene in Australia and overseas is only going to get far worse based on current contrived population growth trends. Sure, leg ropes and surf schools have made a contribution to crowds to some extent - but, that is rather pithy and limited in perspective. Fundamentally, poor population management is the prime driver and key source problem around the world. As renowned Biologist, Paul Ehrlich, a good friend of ABC broadcaster Phillip Adams, has stated, "Whatever your cause, it's a lost cause without population control."

The trans-global mass movement of humanity is promulgated and endorsed by big business endless growth agendas, well-meaning but naive borderless world/social justice idealists and technocrat-futurists firmly convinced that all will be okay - and ask no questions. Ask Elon Musk, can we surf on Mars???!!!

From the super continental split 100 million years ago, what remains of our part of Gondwana, the land of Oz, is 94% desert with choking coasts and the highest rate of flora and fauna species loss in the world combined with an ignorant national anthem that fatuously croons "endless plains to share".

Right now, Australia, with the fastest rate of contrived population growth in the western world, fully endorsed by both major political political parties with punch drunk gusto, is tracking towards 100 million people by 2100 at an annual 1.7% compound growth - a rather terrifying scenario unless we can green the deserts or find a complementary planet. At this juncture, we can currently feed ourselves and our agricultural exports help nourish another 45 million globally - this is valuable export of our fragile (non glaciated) topsoil to contribute to GNP.

As the parent of a surfing mad son not yet in his teen years, I lament the lack of federal resolve to acknowledge let alone intelligently discuss and address the issue, along with its spurious efforts to ridicule and dismiss those concerned about the global realities. The fine minds of the likes of Tim Flannery, Paul Ehrlich, Dick Smith and Dr John Coulter have all effectively been censured in speaking out about population issues and the environmental implications. The so-called "Greens" are nauseatingly gutless and evasive on the issue - citing how we use and distribute resources as the main problem.

The future plan, at least while Australia still supposedly retains its sovereignty, should be the implementation of sensible levels of authentically sustainable immigration - capped at not more than 50,000 people per annum which is around what Australia had throughout the decade of the 1980's. May common sense prevail for the sake of future generations.

Agree with you on this one spuddy.
I think we have a complete lack of leadership in this country. Rarely if at all do the pollies make decisions that really benefit the country long term. I don’t really follow or know much about politics in this country but I’ll vote for the first party that says “we don’t care what the other party are doing or saying,
we are going to do this, If we get voted in.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens with the whole recycling thing that Australia finally has to deal with ourselves.
And spuddyjack, out of curiosity which part of the country your from mate.?

Immigration is the short cut easy path to economic growth / job creation. That is why all politicians tend to embrace it openly or in a hidden " hope the sheep don't notice" kind of way. Most other paths are hard work and uncertain. Once in power, the economists soon make it clear - "you have one lever you can pull and keep the statistics looking okay or you can ease off on it and have a recession and get voted out of office". Plus it keeps their real estate investments growing nicely.

If you want to end immigration then you should be willing to sell your house for what you paid for it plus inflation. Any takers?

This contributor certainly does not want an end immigration Blindboy, it's value and benefits are ineluctably vital and enriching. The world is full of beautiful people of all backgrounds. My beloved partner is from a NESB and has lectured in Asian and European languages here. Nevertheless, thirty years of 250,000 to 400,000 people per year (and factoring in so-called permanent departures)has placed enormous strain on infrastructure, environment, polity and social capital and sadly raised ugly extremist elements. Non sequitur throw away comments contribute nothing. My background is in the behavioural sciences and demographics, the issue is serious and well planned reductions in immigration will not leave you impoverished and on the streets! Powerful agendas would love to have you believe that. I could ply you with academically researched data that would dispel "the bigger is better" nonsense but I'd rather go for a surf. Instead, I suggest those who care and are inclined to read grab a copy of Tim Jackson's PROSPERITY WITHOUT GROWTH - economics for a finite planet. A good starting point.

Nothing much to disagree with their Jack, except the suggestion of a degree of entitlement around our standard of living. Bigger is the global population reality for the next however many decades. Better? I tend to think that Australia is well placed to absorb its current intake and any disadvantage to us is offset by advantages elsewhere. I would like to see our intake more focused on refugees but that would increase the problems you refer to. I think it is all about global vs local. Thinking locally, there are good arguments for cutting immigration. Thinking globally, the argument runs to maintaining it, but refocusing on those in need. Not holding my breath for that outcome.

Thanks for your considered follow-up thoughts blindboy. Whatever transpires from here on in will require intelligent planning and infrastructure (none hitherto matching current population growth), clever micro-housing such as we see in Japan and Hong Kong and the more eco-friendly transportation/movement of people within cities will be essential. Far greater efforts will also be needed in and out of the water to learn to accept tighter living. Australia's focus should be on it's region, namely empowering and sharing wealth with East Timor and gearing up for pacific island refugees - hopefully realistic goals. As an adjunct, 25 years ago, while researching in Vietnam with a farming organisation, various locals would say to my wife and I "We wish you fertility - but not more than two" - a mantra that had become popular throughout Indochina following government concerns around runaway population pressures, diminishing space and uncertainty around food supply; the locals understood the imperatives of population management.

I will sidestep the overall population number debate (Sustainable Australia, Greens of the 1990s, cough cough) and go into what it may look like in surfing terms.

The snow resort we have gone to for years changed last year. Most of the nearest town has been bought up by a single interest and will become luxury accomodation for the novelty southern hemi snow season, for the cashed up of the world. The demographic shift away from patronage by Australian families has begun. I talked to a lovely family from Hong Kong who were enjoying the snow with their little daughter. Her delight at the snow was beautiful to watch.

If we go to Lombok (or the next island?) Swellnet has run a story that a huge section of the coast has been bought up and will become a luxury resort.

These trends will continue. All the cool fun stuff (I rate surfing or snow as > footy oval or cricket nets) will be sold off at a price, and that price (along with the RE the land sits on) will get steeper.

The flip side is, with marine parks and resource restocking of many top end species, it's likely off-the-beaten-path Australian surfing will become more dangerous. It's unlikely parts of coast (say, across the Roe Plain WA) will get surfed regularly: it would be a pretty adrenaline rich experience even now. So those hoards of learners are going to congregate spots already congregated.

And we are going to infill population wise as well, so the extra crowd at your local is more likely to be populated by people living in the new development out the back of town, who can surf reasonably well.

VJ last paragraph wow that is my and many others new reality in about 12-24 months. More development. More houses. More pressure on very finite resources.
Selfish - yes but where does it stop. Hate to sound like the "shut the gate" guy.

Good luck hirsute, I've noticed so many people getting out of the learning stage into intermediate locally. And so with a general love of people/will talk to anyone approach to life, I am happy to see their stoke. To gorge on waves will require being more wily: different spots, different equipment (sometimes opens up spots you wouldn't have surfed), different strategy - I'll leave the exact "how" to everyone to individually interpret.

Why should we shoulder the burden of their selfishness? Where would you like me to start? Maybe with the ruthless exploitation of Asian and African populations over hundreds of years. The British in India, Belgium in the Congo, the Dutch in Indonesia, the Opium Wars. The policies of European nations drove hundreds of millions into poverty and there has been little relief in modern times. If you have the misfortune to live in one of those nations then the only security you have as you age is the support of your children, so it makes sense to have a few. Their selfishness Blowin when it is their hard labour for a pittance that provides our luxury goods. Mate, open your eyes, take a hard look at the world, then look in the mirror 'cos that is where you will find it!

Thanks for bringing up Nigeria. It is a classic example of how poor regulation in the developed world allows multi-national oil companies to work through corrupt local officials to maximise their profits while the wealth of the nation is privatised and shipped offshore to tax havens like Panama, Nevis, Samoa and the Virgin Islands. So the average Nigerian has been condemned to a life of poverty by our demand for cheap oil and our willingness to accept the low prices without questioning why. Selfish? Yep, that's us! But feel free to live in denial, it's a popular pastime.

So the average Nigerian has been condemned to a life of poverty by having 8 kids.

fify

Educate & empower women -> less children per woman -> higher family wealth -> less poverty. Not hard. Oh yeah and countries with solid individual property rights codified in law have far less poverty. It's what most of us around the world want.

Oil? Venezuela has heaps and the state owns the oil for their people, and they are destitute. Their hyperinflation has just surpassed Weimar Germany. FA property rights there too.

Nothing to do with surfing 2025 in these last few posts. There's probably waves in Nigeria.

Bloody good questions blowin.

My guess is that by 2025, knowing the way the Chinese are competitive in every human endeavor I think it may help to brush up on some Mandarin....though probably only a few phrases may be required depending upon an individuals disposition.

http://www.traveller.com.au/the-rise-and-rise-of-surfing-in-china-h140zv

Gawd, amoeba alert!
That's a lot of floaties.

Five crew out for the early today, plenty of waves coming through, probably the best it's been in a few weeks. On a whim I took a fish out and had a blast - reckon I'll be riding it plenty more in the near future. Few more paddled out just before I went in, so maybe 10 people out in 100m long rights.

None of them were Chinese.

What sort of Fish Stu?..looking to add one to my quiver, but bit confused so many dif types

It's from Nick Miles at Sculpt, think he calls it the Couch Surfer. When I ordered it I wanted to keep it very simple, so it's a dead ahead fish design, no flyers or channels out the back, which is the design du jour.

Fish purists will note the toed in fins and call bullshit on it - gotta be set parallel to be a proper fish - but it shares every other trait with traditional fish, except it's more reactive 'cos of the fin angle.

First few times I rode it were in small, weak beachies and I found it slow from rail to rail - at 20 1/4 wide that's no surprise - but today was just down the line, more about pumping for rhythm not speed, and the thing delivered. Twas an absolute barrel of fun.

Yeah I got it as a groveller, yet the surf wasn't gutless today and the board fired.

Now I'm wondering about its upper size limit.

"Hits top speed within a couple of metres of trim."

I'd forgotten all about that feeling. It's addictive as crack.

@ Stu net,
Looks like an old Mr twin I used to surf in the summer months.
Mine was 5 8. Super fun board plenty of foam good entry rocker foam combo.
Such a good board.
What size fins are you using?

Using these, LD.

Alkali Classic Twin 

https://alkalifins.com/shop/fins/classic-twin-red-tint/

@ Stu net,
Bingo .........same fins also ! , well almost (obviously glass ons on the M R board was amazing.)
Your going to have trouble getting off that thing , you do realize that right?

Glass 44 4 ?

My experience with proper fish is that they're not grovelers, but will sort of grovel. OH righthand point surf is pure joy, though.

Board looks great. 5'6 is not big. How big are you, Stu?

5'10, 80 kegs.

That enough volume for you for such a small board, Stu?

I've got a board with very similar dimension, mines 5'8" took it and my standard shortboard (6'2" 19 2/58) for a quick into fix between work deployments. Got there and my shortboard hd taken then brunt of abuse and was snapped in two places. Had no other option rode the twinee in everything, It amazes me that I didn't think it would handle it. best day was slightly overhead HT's awesome fun. As Lanky Dean said," Your going to have trouble getting off that thing, right?" My whole perspective has changed, twin fins are fun, super fun.

@IB

Yeah, not that I pay much attention to it but I usually ride around 28-29 litres, so 30 is OK, and most of it is across the chest so that helps. Wouldn't want it any less tho'.

Also, if no-one minds I'm gonna keep calling this board a fish not a twinny, mainly owing to my previous comments on the shortcomings of twin fins. Wouldn't wanna be seen as a hypocrite...

looks like what im after have you got a side shot of it, keen to see how much rocker (or lack of) is in it.