Maldives late June forecast
June 21st is still a little while away but we'll have a little more idea in the coming days.
awesome - just putting it out there at this stage - any feedback closer to the 21st would be great !
Ben just wondering why you guys don't have a Maldives forecast page? Doesn't have to be a written report like you're Indo ones but how come no virtual buoy forecast?
Our Maldives forecasts (plural.. there's a couple of 'em) are a part of our full global release which has been tied up in a development backlog for the last year or so. We've got 2,200 curated global data points - 700 of which are already live on the site - ready to update shortly, hopefully in the next month or two.
just wondering a my 21/6 departure looms closer, if I could get some assistance with a Maldives forecast (will be there 11 days) MS have proved unreliable for me in the past (usually under predicting SE swells and opposite for SW swells) Am perplexed regarding SE swells - any help would be great. Have used this Indian site in the past, though they give only 3 days and the site is difficult to navigate:
http://www.incois.gov.in/portal/osf/osf_rimes/maldives_forecast.jsp?para... cheers , John
Looks like a good run of SSE swell coming up.
thanks cman - i get the jist of the graph. any ideas what this might translate to at shore ? i guess that depends on location - seems like the eastern facing breaks will be the winners ..
Which part of the Maldives ya heading too?
And as for the graphs above. Surf height is all about the period and swell direction. Looks like a good run of 4ft/4ft+ SE swell based on those graphs above (although graph doesn't give swell direction).
we have a bit of flexibility available - self guiding with a range between n/male to lower central atolls. it is our call . am pretty familiar with spots and exposure - just a reliable forecast has been an issue. any help/advice would be much appreciated. cheers, john
One last shout out - if any forecaster can help with a forecast for Maldives June 22 - July 2nd I would be really appreciative. The MS option just isn't reliable. Or any other suggestion for sites etc.
cheers
Hey Safari, from memory that swell is sse (340 or so) so at exposed locals you should see good head high and a half, quite possible more, but I wouldn't think you'd be getting much in South male.
Will do another run when I'm back home on Monday if you've got internet.
Thanks C man. I will have internet. Will probably head further south to SE swell exposed breaks (not in the shadow like south male) Any thoughts on the large SW swell predicted late June ? thinking the SW swell exposed breaks might do ok..
head high + sounding good for the SE swell - thanks for the feedback
Haven't looked at the SW swell. Will have a look on Monday.
I should note that he above graph is just NOAA data, slightly tweaked, but just showing any SE swell at the Maldives. It's the same data MS use to get their forecasts.
I'll update it to include direction which should help pick your spots.
thats great c man. i have found MS predictions for maldives swell seem to come in under - hope that is the case this time as well. direction will be be really helpful. cheers
Like everyone looking for a heads up for the Northern Male atolls from the 4th - 11th of July ( will repost a plea for a forecast as it gets closer). Have been caught out with the Magic Seaweed forecasts twice - even with the knowledge that some swells under while others over-estimated. Pretty tricky. Thanks heaps for the heads up and the discussion.
Maldives latest forecast
It’s very difficult to do a general forecast for the entire Maldives region, encompassing the North Male Atolls, Central Atolls and Southern Atolls as all of these regions pick up very different swells, but I’ve tried my best below with the notes.
Wed 24th
4-5ft S/SE swell with the upper end of this size at the North Male Atolls, smaller in the Central and Southern Atolls.
Thurs 25th
4-5ft S/SE swell with the upper end of this size at the North Male Atolls, smaller in the Central and Southern Atolls. Southern and Central (western facing) Atolls may see some very inconsistent 2-3ft S/SW groundswell very late in the day.
Fri 26th
3-4ft+ S/SE swell with the upper end of this size at the North Male Atolls, smaller in the Central and Southern Atolls. Southern and Central (western facing) Atolls very inconsistent 2-3ft S/SW groundswell early morning building rapidly and being overtaken throughout the day by a solid and powerful (ie 20 sec period swell!!!) but super inconsistent 6-8ft SW/S groundswell by dark.
Sat 27th
3-4ft S/SE swell with the upper end of this size at the North Male Atolls, smaller in the Central and Southern Atolls. Southern and Central (western facing) Atolls seeing solid and powerful but super inconsistent 8ft/8ft+ SW/S groundswell. North Male south swell magnets may see some of this powerful surf refract into them. Size is questionable, but could be somewhere in the 3-4ft range. The biggest difference will be the power in these waves compared to the much lower S/SE swell.
Sun 28th
3-4ft S/SE swell with the upper end of this size at the North Male Atolls, smaller in the Central and Southern Atolls. Southern and Central (western facing) Atolls seeing solid and powerful but super inconsistent 6-8ft SW/S groundswell waning throughout the day. North Male south swell magnets may see some of this powerful surf refract into them. Size is questionable, but could be somewhere in the 3-4ft range. The biggest difference will be the power in these waves compared to the much lower S/SE swell.
Mon 29th
2-3ft+ S/SE swell with the upper end of this size at the North Male Atolls, smaller in the Central and Southern Atolls. Southern and Central (western facing) Atolls seeing solid but inconsistent 5-6ft+ SW/S groundswell waning throughout the day. North Male south swell magnets may see some of this powerful surf refract into them. Size is questionable, but could be somewhere in the 2-3ft+ range. The biggest difference will be the power in these waves compared to the much lower S/SE swell.
Tues 30th
2-3ft S/SE swell with the upper end of this size at the North Male Atolls, smaller in the Central and Southern Atolls. Southern and Central (western facing) Atolls seeing inconsistent 4-5ft SW/S groundswell waning throughout the day.
Wed 1st
2ft/2ft+ S/SE swell with the upper end of this size at the North Male Atolls, smaller in the Central and Southern Atolls. Southern and Central (western facing) Atolls seeing inconsistent 3-4ft SW/S groundswell waning throughout the day.
Thurs 2nd
Around 2ft S/SE swell with the upper end of this size at the North Male Atolls, smaller in the Central and Southern Atolls. Southern and Central (western facing) Atolls seeing inconsistent 2-3ft SW/S groundswell waning throughout the day.
Fri 3rd
New pulse of 2-3ft+ S/SE swell with the upper end of this size at the North Male Atolls, smaller in the Central and Southern Atolls. Southern and Central (western facing) Atolls seeing inconsistent 2ft SW/S groundswell waning throughout the day. Southern Atolls may see a new pulse of 2-3ft SW/S groundswell right on dark.
Sat 4th
Waning 2-3ft S/SE swell with the upper end of this size at the North Male Atolls, smaller in the Central and Southern Atolls. Southern and Central (western facing) Atolls seeing inconsistent 2-3ft SW/S groundswell.
Sun 5th
1-2ft+ S/SE swell with the upper end of this size at the North Male Atolls, smaller in the Central and Southern Atolls. Southern and Central (western facing) Atolls seeing inconsistent 3-4ft SW/S groundswell.
Beyond this potentially a new pulse of bigger SW/S groundswell for early the following week (Tues 7th/Wed 8th) but still too far out to have any real confidence on this forecast now.
Thanks Don - I am hoping you can help me out next week for the period July 4 -11 for the Northern atolls. Hopefully there is some swell on the 7th -8th period you mention.
Thanks to all for forecast advice - am here now. Mon 22 was 3-5ft northern atolls, Tues 23 and Wed 23 4-5ft, occasional 6ft, and very occasional a fair touch larger ! This was east facing central atolls. Have arrived to take on the big S/SW swell to west cost - see how we go....
cheers
Awesome! Were you on Laamu in central?
Will do a model run for west coast tonight when I get home.
Hey Carpetman, I'd like to talk to you please. Email Ben or Craig and ask them to give you my email address (link them to this comment as my approval for them to give you my email address). Thanks.
Not keen on plastering my email addy on a public forum and ya can't PM on here.
Or alternatively, PM me on realsurf forum.
Hey Don,
Happy for either. Just PM'd you on RS.
Don is there any chances you could give a forecast for the north Male atolls for the period of the 4 -11 July? Any help would be awesome and very much appreciated.
cgrover wrote:Don is there any chances you could give a forecast for the north Male atolls for the period of the 4 -11 July? Any help would be awesome and very much appreciated.
Maldives North Male Forecast
The SW/S swell wave heights below are questionable for the North Male Atolls, but I’ve included them as a guide in case some of the SW/S swell does refract up into the North Male Atolls (in my experience in the swell is very southerly in direction and very high swell periods it just doesn’t get into the North Male Atolls).
Sat 4th
2-3ft+ S/SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets.
Sun 5th
2-3ft+ S/SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. Also some SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting up into the North Male south swell magnets. No noticeable increase in size over the S/SE swell but definitely a noticeable increase in power from these waves.
Mon 6th
New pulse of 3-4ft SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. Also some similar sized SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting up into the North Male south swell magnets. No noticeable increase in size over the SE swell but definitely a noticeable increase in power from these waves.
Tues 7th
Slowly waning 3-4ft SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. Also some similar sized (perhaps 4ft+ at the south swell magnets) SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Wed 8th
Waning 2-3ft+ SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. Also some 3-4ft+ SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Thurs 9th
Waning 2-3ft SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. A new pulse of 4-5ft SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Fri 10th
New pulse of 2-3ft+ SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. Waning 3-4ft+ SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Sat 11th
2-3ft+ SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. Waning 3-4ft SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Gidday to The Don and Carpetman
Mate ! ?? do ya reckon you could give us a forecast for the Maldives
Heading over from July 9 to 19 sailing on the Nautilus 1
Looking at CGROVER report the Maldives is looking consistent
Love to hear what you reckon gunna happen as the dates get nearer
Cheers
Mr T
What part of the Maldives Mr T?
on the nautilus1 so…?, Male to Centrals I guess,
Captains call as to where we go, so I would like to have a bit of forecast so we can understand his call
and work out if it fits with the swell directions etc etc
Given you're still over a week away reinvigorate this thread this time next week and I'll see what I can do for you.
Don your the man,will do
Cheers
Heading off thursday ,looking on Magicseaweed , the forecast is looking good, swell is tending to the south east on the 11th and staying that way till the 20th,how do you see it Donweather?
because i am hoping to head down to the centrals , to found some barrels down that way
I'm in Sydney today so won't get a chance to look at the forecasts until tomorrow.
What part of the centrals are you looking at going too? Only the East facing breaks?
Just had a quick look and yeah if that forecast comes to fruition you're looking damn good later on in the forecast period with some SOLID S/SE swell coming your way.
Your last two days 18th/19th could well be even bigger if the latest forecast comes to fruition.
I am on a liquid destinations boat , pretty sure these guys will travel to either side of the centrals,
Looks like we will be surfing everyday !!
So SOLID S/SE swell , better pack my step up board and the 6'8" single for some barrel hunting , ho ho yer
Solid for the Maldives is what I meant.
Solid Maldives is all I need, I'll take that any day yo
Apologies for the delay Mr T. Hopefully you've got internet access over there and receive this. Looking DAMN GOOD mate. Have a great trip and appreciate some feedback on the forecast and waves upon your return.
Maldives North Male and Central Atolls Forecast
The SW/S swell wave heights below are questionable for the North Male Atolls, but I’ve included them in case you’re gonna chase some of the SW facing atolls of the Central Atolls (in my experience unless the SW/S swell is very southerly in direction and very high swell periods it just doesn’t get into the North Male Atolls).
Thurs 9th
3-4ft SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets (swell may be slightly undersized until the afternoon). 5-6ft SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Fri 10th
3-4ft SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. Waning 5-6ft SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Sat 11th
Building 4-5ft SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. Waning 3-4ft SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Sun 12th
Building 5-6ft SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. Waning 2-3ft SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets. New pulse of rapidly building 3-4ft+ SW/S groundswell late in the afternoon, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Mon 13th
Solid 6ft/6ft+ SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. 5-6ft SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Tues 14th
Solid 6ft/6ft+ SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. Waning 4-5ft SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets. Potentially new SW/S groundswell arriving late in the day to a similar size to the waning 4-5ft SW/S groundswell.
Wed 15th
Solid 6ft/6ft+ SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. 4-5ft SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Thurs 16th
Waning 5-6ft+ SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. 3-4ft SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Fri 17th
Waning 4-5ft+ SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. 3-4ft SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Sat 18th
Waning 4-5ft SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. 3-4ft SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Sun 19th
Waning 3-4ft+ SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. 3-4ft SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Geez I am sitting in the airport and just got your forecast . Wow it going to be an epic trip I feel
Thanks for the forecast . I keep you posted check out liquid's blog might see my mug ha ha then again you may not ha
So stoked cheers Don
Mr T
That's a pretty solid forecast of 6ft surf Don for an extended period.
You think that ridge is strong enough? It's sustained with embedded intensifcations but I'd be thinking more in the 4-6ft range.
And that 5-6ft S/SW groundswell for Monday? Where's that from, and then 3-4ft through the rest of the week.
There's no real decent frontal activity at all, for the Ments from late Tuesday I've only got inconsistent background swell to 4-5ft or so.
I think Don is pulling my chain
Either way the forecast looks pretty gold
Happy for warm weather and surf everyday
Cheers and thanks guys for your input
Mr T
Craig wrote:That's a pretty solid forecast of 6ft surf Don for an extended period.
You think that ridge is strong enough? It's sustained with embedded intensifcations but I'd be thinking more in the 4-6ft range.
And that 5-6ft S/SW groundswell for Monday? Where's that from, and then 3-4ft through the rest of the week.
There's no real decent frontal activity at all, for the Ments from late Tuesday I've only got inconsistent background swell to 4-5ft or so.
I'm sticking with my SE swell forecast based on current models. I have a theory on these including their persistence.
I did whip this forecast up hastily at lunch cause I was busy and also I wanted to get it to Mr T ASAP as I thought I may have already missed him. So in saying that looking into the SW swell in a little more detail, it appears I may have been using old model data. So perhaps it's more like 4-5ft on Monday but I'm still looking into this in more detail and will provide my thoughts later when I have a bit more time.
I also don't put as much effort into the SW groundswell as they don't impact the surf heights for the North Male atolls and with such a great looking SE swell forecast I didn't really put as much effort into the SW groundswell forecast even for the Centrals.
The one thing to note with respect to the Maldives SW groundswells Craig is that the Central Atolls is some 3200km from the Ments so depending on where the SW swell was created, sometimes the Maldives can actually pick up more SW groundswell than the Ments due to them being closer to the swell source. But I agree I may have overcooked the SW groundswell heights a touch as it appears I may have been using old data.
Yeah, all cool Don, just throwing in my 2c.
Craig wrote:Yeah, all cool Don, just throwing in my 2c.
No worries mate. Appreciate the queries anyway.
NOAA data backs up Dons forecast
Nice work Don Respect;)
Re SE swell Carpetman, doesn't it have 4.5ft peak?
It does but it's "almost" raw data. And from my observations and reports back on here and other sites the NOAA data typically undercooks bigger SE swell events.
Which is I suppose one of the reasons some forecast sites have difficulty giving an accurate forecast for the Maldives.
carpetman wrote:NOAA data backs up Dons forecast
Thanks CM. Something funny happening with data on the SW groundswell around 14th but?
Also Craig, the NOAA data plotted about is for virtual locations north of the Maldives so swell around Male and even more so central atolls will be bigger than that forecast above.
And as a CM said, NOAA data typically under cooks the SE swell forecasts.
Can anyone tell me how that forecast relates more specifically to the Northern Atolls? No experience with the area but have heard that up north, while having plenty of perfect waves, needs a bit more swell to wrap in - which I'm fine with! Heading on a boat trip from this sunday (july 12) until the 24th. Most of our time is likely to be spent around the Northern Atolls (Jails, Sultans etc) with the possibility of going down to the central region. Thanks a bunch!
Craig might be able to expand on anomalies within the NOAA data?
You would expect the downwards trend to continue through the 14th, instead of drop right off and increase swell period for a brief period. So I don't know either sorry Don.
Maldives North Male and Central Atolls Forecast
The SW/S swell wave heights below are questionable for the North Male Atolls, but I’ve included them in case you’re gonna chase some of the SW facing atolls of the Central Atolls (in my experience unless the SW/S swell is very southerly in direction and very high swell periods it just doesn’t get into the North Male Atolls).
Fri 10th
3-4ft SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. Waning 5-6ft SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Sat 11th
Building 4-5ft SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets by the end of the day. Waning 3-4ft SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Sun 12th
4-5ft SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. May see some 5ft+ sets by close of play Sunday evening. Waning 2-3ft SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets. New pulse of rapidly building 3-4ft+ SW/S groundswell late in the afternoon, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Mon 13th
4-5ft SE swell, building into the afternoon to solid 5-6ft with the odd 6ft+ set with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. 4-5ft+ SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Tues 14th
Solid 5-6ft with the odd 6ft+ SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. Waning 4-5ft SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets. Potentially new SW/S groundswell arriving late in the day to a similar size to the waning 3-4ft+ SW/S groundswell.
Wed 15th
Solid 5-6ft with the odd 6ft+ SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. Overlapping 3-4ft SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Thurs 16th
Slowly waning 4-5ft+ SE swell, with the odd 6ft set early morning still, with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. 2-3ft+ (building to possibly 3-4ft late afternoon) SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Fri 17th
Waning 4-5ft SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. 3-4ft SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Sat 18th
Waning 3-4ft+ (with the odd 4ft+ set early morning still) SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. 3-4ft SW/S groundswell (possibly inconsistent sets to 4ft+ late afternoon) in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Sun 19th
Waning 3-4ft SE swell with the upper end of this size at the south swell magnets. 3-4ft+ SW/S groundswell in the mix, possibly refracting (smaller) up into the North Male south swell magnets.
Been watching comments and Maldive swell forecasts here and on other forums by Don and other forecasters over the years - seems the art is quite refined and am still trying to work out the methodology ! Am heading there soon - 21st June to 2nd July - hoping I can get some help with a forecast as the dates gets closer ? We have our options open with the choice, based on conditions, of staying north/south male atolls, cruising the central atolls or even heading to some lesser known far northern atolls. Any assistance greatly appreciated !