The week / month ahead in weather .!
Hahaha
Now Sheepy, today is one of those days that I just can't make any sense of the MSLP charts. Basically the sub tropical ridge lies straight across the middle of the country, but there's no pressure isolines over the top whatsoever. Hard to tell what's going on after that E'ly hits the continent, mixing? Stagnating? Dissipating? Driving uplift?
Mitch.. It's a 1028H high, mate.... Ya get that..... You'll often get that with a cyclone/lows southern flank even out in the pacific - all crunched up on the south side...... Fuck all on the north side.... You know what I mean?
For the south east, the big dry is over...... El nino is now past tense.... Major rain event predicted for Inland Qld/ S.A/NSW/Vic/Tas.. Upper levels kicking in..
sheepy the big tell tale for me was the back to back storms in Darwin the last two nights . Strongest of the year , when it should be getting dryer up there .
Yeah, Southey.... Wonder how "ecl season" will pan out...... Upper level Timor sea stuff coming through now?? Is that a good or bad sign?...... Perhaps just a whole bunch of stuff that happens? Time will tell..
for me the Darwin thing is the atmosphere finally responding to the collapsing oceanic " oni " influence of ENSO . The trend to - IOD will also be lending a hand .
I will go out on a limb and say that the ECL season may last all the way through to an early start to cyclone season . Either way there's going to be a BUCKET load of instability around once these two influences combine .
Fair points southwald...... You mentioned the darwin storms..... Another sign has been the continued moist infeed into the FNQ coast, with reasonable and persistent coastal rainfall.... While still not back to mean average, April was a definite turning point with 156mm.
Its everywhere Sheepo . Regardless if its raining there is more VWV , and about three days prior to all that we started seeing full sky comtrails off the planes , in higher altitudes . Just like back around this time in 2010 . Next system due Sunday .
Yeah I got it.
Yet more classic Bill Lawry... :p
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Windy TV now have a new Pressure feature on there Charts.
It looks like the weather models are on Crack again ........
They really have no idea what to do with this monsoon trough progression .
One run of Access G they had a Cat 2/3 cold cored cyclone at the head of the bight .
And GFS is doing its typical , the world is gonna end predictions ....
Kind of hard to take these runs serious when another shows a borderline Cat 2 warm core cyclone intact Sth of Uluru but still >1000 kms from the ocean . I know the pacific Infeeds almost the entire ocean on both sides of the equator. But that amount of captured upper moisture would be almost unheard of .