Long way out!
Looks like a node of the Long Wave Trough will intensity just west of Western Australia mid-late next week.
What this means is enhanced storm and frontal activity throughout the South-eastern Indian Ocean and swells from the S/SW for Indonesia into the first week of September.
If your interested in our 16 day forecast data, we have a large S/SW groundswell arriving in Bali around the 1st/2nd coming in at 3m @ 16s. So probably a good 10ft swell.
We can keep a running update through this thread for you.
Thanks Craig.
Any updates would be really appreciated. Need some decisions in the next few days..... Really interested in the 8th to 14th of Sept
Cheers
Ah I see. Well that is quite a way away and confidence would be low on any forecast out that far at this early stage.
But as a rough guide the early outlook is promising.
The upper atmospheric setup will be inducive to stronger than normal polar frontal activity through the Southern Indian Ocean. This will result in swells from the S/SW rather than SW for Indo and at least in the medium size range.
Also what region are you heading to? This would help a lot.
Ok cool that was the feeling l was getting from my ameterish efforts....
Am looking to either hit G-land or Turtles area in West Java
Thanks heaps, l really appreciate the insights.
Cheers
Agree with Craig. The super long range forecast certainly looks to have some good looking back to back SW/S groundswells inbound. Of course the reliability of these forecasts is rather low this far out.
Go to G-Land ...........
Thanks heaps Craig and Don. Have until to Sunday to make my decision but I think I'm gunna take the punt! With ya on the G-land Southey.
Like Turtles, love G'Land.
Go to G'Land.
Morning Gents!
Looks like a reasonable chance of a couple of swells from around the 10th of Sept through the following week...... Any opinions?
Thanks
Hi Sarge,
Those big swells for the start of September are lining up just as expected, probably a couple of good 10ft pulses there, but after that things will settle down into the start of your window.
Bit hard to look from the 10th onwards still as it's a long way out, but if you can get to Indo early from the 1st through to the 7th/8th you would score big time!
HI Craig
Think the same swell will reach the Telos region? Will be in that area Sept 2 - 14. Keen to get your take on whether the swell will get in there.
Thanks for all your help Craig.
Bullet bitten!!! Got myself a hit and run tix for the 6th till 13th.
Will report back on how l go.
Thanks again
Yeah it will black duck but it will dead south in direction and smaller than locations further east due to the storm forming just on the periphery of its swell window and being more aimed towards Bali.
I'm not totally familiar with the Telos, but looking at a map you'll need to get to the spots as far west and exposed as possible to get the most of the swell.
Probably looking at an initial pulse in the 4-5ft range with a bigger increase around 6ft on the 3rd/4th and then third pulse to 4-6ft or so on the morning of the 5th with a downwards trend from then onwards.
Again if you're further protected in behind islands shadowing the south swell it will be much smaller.
No worries Sarge, good luck and any chance you can get in before the 6th? Swell will be biggest 2nd/3rd/4th.
Cant get there early but can extend by a few days if I get a follow up swell....
Cheers
Thanks for the quick response Craig, much appreciated.
Will report back for hindcast stats
No worries guys, good luck!!
Sarge, looks like you'll now fly into a fresh pulse of large S/SW swell on the 6th. Lining up nicely!
I hope you were touching wood when you wrote your last comment Craig!!!
Looks like it...... Not getting to ahead of myself but looks alright. You game to give an opinion for beyond the 13th?
Haha, lots of wood touched!
Beyond the 13th is again a long way away but looking at the Long Wave Trough forecast I'd say there are no large swells due in the immediate period around the 13th. More so small to moderate groundswells.
hey craig, and idea how kruis looking between the 2nd and 16th? cheers mate
craig/ben
Any chance of a "sneak peek" of the new swellnet with a graph/forecast for Bali for the next10 days or so? Been waiting for the new site to come up but may be on my way before it goes live...
Hi Scoobs,
Here's this morning's forecast for Uluwatu and the surf forecast size is the 12pm (midday) value for each day.
Also that swell for the 17/18th has just been pushed back a day or two in the latest update to a peak on the 19th/20th.
But in summary after this week's swells it looks like some downtime through next week with the swell kicking again from Friday onwards.
Cheers!
Thanks Craig!! Looks like l'm extending.....
Hi Blackduck,
That's great to here and I was using the forecast from our new forecasting system but under playing it a touch, so that extra size at the peak of the swell is awesome to hear!
Re pics you need to upload them to Flickr or Photobucket and then past the link here.
And man if anyone's booked a trip to Indo the last 2 months it would of been hard to get skunked, so so many big and sizey swells!
Yep ya pretty much nailed it Craig but I'd say the model was a bit off (undersized) for 13th through 14th, for G-land anyways. And the Swell arrival times were on point and l'd think direction wise you were pretty right. I reckon there was a touch more south in that 14th - 15th swell maybe but l'm no expert thats for sure.
Thank again for the help. It was awesome to just pull the trigger and score.
Sarge
Craig is the 14 day forecast going to be a new SN forecast for Australia?
Or did I read that it is a subscription?
Apologies for all the questions, but do you forecast swell for the pacific islands?,and how do I look them up?.
Cheers
Welly
Good news also Sarge4, and yeah the forecast probably shifted a little regarding size/direction of swells for the 13th onwards as that forecast was done a week before.
And Welly, the 16 day forecasts will be part of the subscription service on the new site and has the Pacific Islands.
Where were you thinking of and I can take a quick look?
Cheers, Craig
Anyone brave enough to give an opinion in activity in the Indian Ocean for the first week or so of Sept??? Super long way out I know but any opinions more than welcome.