cyclone of the gascoyne and plibara
Yeah, it's an interesting little system TS. Looks like we'll see dual cyclones either side of the mainland in a couple of days time - certainly the best sight on a summer synoptic chart!
As for its swell potential - it's a hard call. The cyclone will be only small in size and without any supporting features to the south (courtesy of a weak trough occupying the vast majority of the west coast), it's hard to have any confidence that we'll see anything noteworthy.
However, this cyclone (Mitchell?) will be located reasonably close to the coast, so it'll only take a short duration - say 24-36 hours - of strong gales in the right quadrant (NE) to kick up a worthwhile NW swell event.
These cyclone swells have been very hard to pick in recent years so we'll keep a very close eye on TC Mitchell once it drifts south offshore from Exmouth. In particular the NW coast should pick up something but we'll have to wait and see if local winds come to the party (at this stage looks reasonably OK). But I'm not sure whether we'll see much activity further south in Perth and Margs.
I still remember the screen grabs from our Yalls came which picked up one of these NW groundswells really well about a year ago - incredible viewing!
Ah, I didn't even check the latest news - TC Mitchell has been born. Looks like I have ANOTHER article to write this afternoon! (after a surf, that is.. ;)
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tropical-cyclone-mitchell-is-first-of...
Hope you had a good sesh? Just another question , the WA coast seems to have more cyclone activity and or tropical low development than the east or the coral sea, even to the point where around this time of year a low trough seems to regularly develop then deepen and cross over the pilbara and gascoyne coast with a fairly low gradient anything from say 1010 down 999 why don't these lows ever seem to ridge up against the polar lows to south giving us any kind of west trade wind swell.
Regards
Seems like Freda had a bit too much to drink last night.
She's wobbling all over the 160 line like a drunken fa'afa'fine.
This'll be a fun one to watch and I do believe in my heart of hearts that with it's erratic track it will contain some unforecastable pulses that will only make sense in the hindcast.
Now, as for this GFS ETS and re-curve back into the Tasman...........holy sheeit.
Anyone seen the low developing of the Pilbara coast ? BOM are giving a high chance of becoming a cyclone in the next 24hrs... the sea surface temps are warm all the way down the coast and the weather patterns seem to be remenisant of the year bianca payed us a visit?! Hey Ben any chance of a bit more info on this system in the next WA long term forcast?
Regards