Tasman Sea - High/Low Combo May
Yeah , EC paints an Okay Picture .. Though still a fair way out , and GFS has a little differenenario that favours NSW , and later ....
EC should be your go to up Nth , but the later the Season the better GFS .
The other Issue that will be not in QLD's favour , Is the SOLID remnants of this weekends STh LW Swell Train . After it passes their is a distinct lack of SE winds in the Lower Tasman start to massage the Straight S swell . So your ENE fetch which could start as early as Tuesday will struggle to counter act and build anything till atleast Saturday . Then even EC has the Cut off Bombing to the Sth and Focusing its strongets Quadrant down to NSW .
So going on these two , AT THIS stage ( Too Early ) especially for more Nth tropical fed systems .
But ya can dream for now ay ! ...
And Ben ,
Silly me of course " it'll be Onshore In Vicco " . ........... .............
BNP ?!!!!!
Thanks Southey, but I'm not looking at SE Qld this time. Going on a roady, hence looking further southwards!!!
Looks as though anything is possible in terms of low's forming over the weekend in the offshore Tasman trough. Models are struggling big time with the prediction of the embedded lows and intensity!!! Arggghhhhh!!!! I just want them to form south of us (noting again I'm not in SE Qld).
looks to be a few 50knt barbs in that fetch just south of new cal at the moment. http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/oscat_images/cur_golf/zooms/WMBas284...
So would anyone like to comment on the current forecast situation for the east coast late next week (first weekend in May)?
Latest EC has a pretty good looking setup with a trough of low pressure retrograding westwards across the top of a high pressure system over NZ longitudes, with the potential low pressure system developing into a reasonable low pressure system early into the first week in May as it merges with another trough coming across from the west.
Latest GFS on the other hand has the low/trough being swept away to the east (over to the NE of NZ), with the bulk of the swell coming from the northern flank of the high pressure system aimed at locations closer to SE Qld/Nth NSW, before a trough moves off the coast early next week, with the remote possibility of a small Tasman low forming.
Any thoughts/crystal ball discussions greatly appreciated.