Roaring Forties moving south - impact on swells to Southern Aus?

leckiep's picture
leckiep started the topic in Monday, 12 May 2014 at 2:52pm

Hey weather-types,

Came across this article today:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/12/roaring-forties-shift-south...

What does it potentially mean for swells along Southern Australia?

Cheers

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg Wednesday, 14 May 2014 at 12:53pm

Well they didn't specifically mention the orientation, so it could be good. Swell still being sent poleward, but less blown out surf...?
Also, 1000 years is a short time in climate change. So the data is not bad or wrong, but limited.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 14 May 2014 at 1:03pm

For the purposes of recreational surfing, I don't think it means anything at all.

Climate trends are really hard to equate to surf potential, because there are so many variables that come into play.

However the basis of this articles related to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) of which there are short to medium term forecast possibilities for locations that have less erratic local variables. For example, Indo, the South Pacific and Central America.

leckiep's picture
leckiep's picture
leckiep Wednesday, 14 May 2014 at 7:00pm

Cheers!

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Wednesday, 14 May 2014 at 11:09pm

Last time i heard of this research ( AGW related ) ,
they were saying that the roaring forties would retract Sth and also strengthen , or see far more Westerly component and less SW NW component ( ie less fronts reaching as far Nth ) .....

So i would say in that context it could be good for exposed spots that might see better conditions for longer in the Autumn- Winter and Winter - Spring transitions .

Mind you there's a lot of Hypothesis in there ! ( the research that is ) ....

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg Thursday, 15 May 2014 at 9:06am

Yeah Southey, that's what had in mind. Except I wrote poleward, but meant equator-ward.