J Bay Forecast
Looks alright for the 15th, 16th and 17th doesn't it? Somewhere around 2.5 meters of swell and offshore.
Seems to fade away after that though.
Doesn't look very good to me at all. A new swell this Thurs/Fri will probably become wind affected from am ill-timed nor'easter (Thurs may be OK with wind strengths likely to be only light). Small waves with lighter winds for the first half of next week and then a recurring block through the middle to latter half of the week will kick the winds up from the nor'east again - not very good at all. Following the Thurs/Fri pulse, there won't be any decent swell until the end of next week anyway - so be prepared for a string of laydays.
At this stage I'd be hoping on an active second half of the waiting period. It'd be a shame for this event to get skunked.
Looks like they may just get lucky this weekend (last 2 days of the waiting period) with a new round of good looking period S/SW groundswell on the cards. Winds look woeful mind you (particularly on Sunday).
Me thinks they'll run the comp on Friday in the peaky E'ly swell to then save the finals for Saturday and possibly the semis and final early on Sunday morning when the swell is forecast to peak, and before the ugly winds get stuck into it.
I wonder what this short range SE swell will do at J-Bay? The wave is fast enough during a wrapping SW groundswell.. surely a peaky short range SE swell (especially at this size) would just cause long sections to shut down?
The weekend's swell doesn't look especially big to me (should be perfectly workable 3-4ft though), however current GFS winds for Sunday look OK (moderate S'ly) - I'm more concerned with a possible pre-trough N'ly on Saturday at this stage.
what are the odds of Slater surfing his way through to the later rounds and then bailing to score some NSW slabs late this week??
Probably the other way around. I suspect he's already booked flights to the Gold Coast in order to surf this week's swell on the North Coast. This'll be followed by a red-eye to Johannesburg on Friday night, before diving straight into his Round 2 heat Saturday morning, eventually winning the Final Sunday afternoon.
Who's with me on this?
Well, I'm already eating my words. Round 2 has just been given the green light, and Slater's not around so he's been replaced by Travis Logie.
Surf's just an inconsistent 2-3ft anyway, so I don't think Kelly'll mind anyway.
Well, I'm already eating my words. Round 2 has just been given the green light, and Slater's not around so he's been replaced by Travis Logie.
Surf's just an inconsistent 2-3ft anyway, so I don't think Kelly'll mind anyway.
By: "thermalben"
The question has to be asked.....I wonder if it was a quiky event whether they would have ran the event today (knowing Slater was a no show) or wait until later in the week, giving Kelly the opportunity to arrive at the event!!!
And surely there's got to be better places in the world this week than Nth NSW to get some good surf. Yeah sure it's gonna be big (although not that big on Thursday/Friday morning) but it's gonna be windy also.
I think the swell increases at Jbay on thursday.
You kidding Don? A solid SE swell and a fresh SW wind - the North Coast points will be cooking. It's likely to be too big and windy down here in Sydney - first place I'd be thinking of heading with be north.
My point Ben was that if you could surf anywhere in the world (as Mr KS can) I wouldn't be choosing Nth NSW points this weekend as my first option as I would think there'd be much better quality/quantity with far less crowd and sweep that what's gonna be on offer in Nth NSW this weekend.
Can't see anywhere else in the world that'd be worth flying to over the next few days, Don - and Australia is probably enroute between Fiji and South Africa (hence why it made sense to me to slot it in).
Anyway, we're debating a hypothetical that won't ever happen. So let's focus on the thread topic - the weekend's forecast for J-Bay has been upgraded a little more, and Saturday's winds look fine now. Should be some great waves for the last two days of the waiting period.
I wonder whether the two small pulses due Thurs will produce anything rideable?
I wouldn't mind seeing Old Baldy taking on the Points here with his 5'11 quad.
the weekend's forecast for J-Bay has been upgraded a little more, and Saturday's winds look fine now. Should be some great waves for the last two days of the waiting period.
By: "thermalben"
Yep I agree Ben, I think they'll try and wrap the finals up on Saturday now when the swell looks to peak and winds look good. Sunday isn't looking overly great now swell and wind wise.
Question is, when will they run the remaining non-final rounds??
Back off topic again.
And surely there's got to be better places in the world this week than Nth NSW to get some good surf.
By: "donweather"
The good word is that it's all time in Northern NSW right now (sorry Don, couldn't resist :D).
Back on topic again.
Looks like they'll be able to space out the remaining heats throughout Saturday and Sunday - given how the last two minor swells have panned out, this upcoming swell should be pretty good. Winds look OK too - they may go S/SE throughout Sunday but probably without any major strength (this wind direction is OK at J-Bay anyway).
I'm actually mildly interested in this event now!
The good word is that it's all time in Northern NSW right now (sorry Don, couldn't resist :D).
By: "thermalben"
Swell might be all time, but I can attest to the sweep being horrendous!!!
Don, are there ever pumping swells with all-time tube-rides on the Qld/NENSW Points without a sweep?
Surely it comes with the territory.
I saw some insane waves this morning......and pocketed one or two for myself.
There's sweeps and then there's sweeps Steve. I'm happy with sweeps that one can paddle against and actually make some headway, but this morning was just a joke. Impossible to even stay in the same spot.
And I've surfed many a time along the superwank with little to no sweep, apart from up near the rock take off.
And whilst the swell may not be 6ft, I've had (even recently) some epic sessions of Indo style barrels on the open beaches and not one ounce of sweep to even mention......just a long paddle back up the beach after scoring 3-4ft+ right hand barrels for 100m+ rides. Give me this any day of the week over what I surfed this morning.
What a fecking joke of a finals day. Absolute poo!!! Organisers should be shot for running the finals in these conditions!!!
They didn't have any choice in the matter.
it wasn't just the gold coast getting a horror sweep over the weekend, i rocked up to bawley point and was surprised to see empty 4 foot barrels, i realised why shortly afterwards when i couldn't get anywhere near the takeoff!
Well not looking overly special in the short term from what I can see. Swell's look too west of south to have any real impact on J Bay. Might have some luck with a small, but surfable, better aligned S/SW groundswell pulse later this week (Sunday and into Monday of next week).
And then early-mid next week there's a remote chance of a south swell forecast to get into J Bay, assuming the charts come to fruition. Current forecasts indicate it could be reasonable from this puppy around Tuesday 19th and Wednesday 20th...but still a long way off for that swell to come to fruition and we all know how GFS likes to overestimate the long range stuff. Winds look woeful onshore from this system also, so I doubt they'd run the comp in it anyway on Tues/Wed.
EC's not painting any better a picture either. :(