Potential Weather Bomb.
All eyes (and lenses) are on
EC not overly interested (with respect to an explosive low pressure sytem) Steve until mid next week. Any thoughts on which way you guys are leaning at present (EC or GFS?).
EC not interested in an ECL until late next week now, but bugger me if the medium-long range EC charts come off, SW Qld is in for a major flood event!!!!
The follow up second low pressure system progged by EC looks rather wild indeed!!! And GFS hinting at something similar although it tends to merge the two low pressure systems.
Looks like we are going to see some classic model flip-flopping over the next week or so.
EC has been a persistent outlier on this upcoming event.
Wonder which model will nail it.
I've always felt GFS has done a better job with these close range ECL/hybrid lows, but EC has the runs on the board as the most accurate model.
I reckon GFS is good once the system has formed. EC tends to be good up until the system has formed in my experience.
Although in saying all of the above, I seem to recall Access G was pretty good at picking the last system??
Only time will tell on this one.
How's it looking for the long weekend now guys? I'm suppose to go down Lennox way to watch a gromette in the girls comp but don't want to go if it's going to be really shit conditions and pissing down rain.
And how the hell does EC know so much about the weather, I thought he was just a brilliant guitarist? Can you please explain what the different charts ie GFS, EC and Access G are and how I look them up so i might be able to get a better handle on what the hell you are talking about.Thanks!
Seal, if you join Weatherzone as a silver member you get access to all the weather model charts. Otherwise try some of these links.
GFS
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=etoz_slp
ACCESS
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
I see that EC has actually now aligned with GFS....surprisingly.
It was the only outlier between all the models Don. I always thought it would tend that way.
Be interesting to see how it evolves though close to the coast.
Yeah agree, Craig, but in the past it's been an outlier and on the money. You win some and ya lose some I guess.
Still not over til the fat lady sings and as we now, these low pressure systems just off the coast have a mind of their own. Interesting long weekend coming up that's for sure.
This is starting to bear an uncanny resemblance to the May 09 event......in which small almost cyclonic low pressure cells formed in the complex shifting trough system.
In that event models were next to useless at resolving the complex event in anything like real-time.
We might have to fly this one by wire.
Christ I hope it forms to the south of us.
It'd be devastating to have these banks wiped out.
Christ I hope it forms to the south of us.
By: "freeride76"
I hear ya Steve!!!! I'm really liking the look of the back up second low pressure system/fetch too!!! These close range low pressure systems are over-rated IMO.
"freeride76" wrote:Christ I hope it forms to the XXXXX north of us.
By: "donweather"
I hear ya Steve!!!! I'm really liking the look of the back up second low pressure system/fetch too!!! These close range low pressure systems are over-rated IMO.
All fixed, yay!
Well as much as I hate to say it, this system (or lack of) is looking more and more like a non event surf wise. Perhaps ECs run's earlier this week were on the money with respect to this first system not really happening?? I now note that each GFS run just keeps on downplaying this event.
I see it differently Don.
Look at the latest ASCAT and you see already a useful SE/E infeed into the trough......the actual development of any low looks to occur later and to the south.
We should see a mod E swell and then an offshore outflow by Tues perhaps.
All in all, a very good result if it doesn't wipe the banks out which is the main concern.
the actual development of any low looks to occur later and to the south.
By: "freeride76"
That was essentially my point Steve. It was a non event for SE Qld, compared to the earlier forecasts by GFS. For me, EC got this one right.
I don't agree sorry Don.
EC had the trough deepening inland during this week before moving offshore into the end of the week.
All the other models had the trough deepening off the coast and drifting south. So I feel that they handled this one the best.
Fair enough Craig. We live to disagree on this one. My point is specifically around SE Qld and the forecasts portayed even up to Friday and Saturday for the impending swell increase in SE Qld for late Sunday and more so into Monday by GFS. It clearly didn't eventuate with locations such as the Sunny Coast and Goldy seeing nothing more than 3-4ft by very late yesterday at best.
I believe some forecasts were calling 5-6ft (and rightly so based on the GFS forecasts portayed on Friday).
EC around Wed or Thurs last week was showing that the low would not be as intense (as portayed by GFS) off the SE Qld coastline on Sunday and Monday this week. Yeah sure it was then progging the low to move inland (Tuesday of this week) over central NSW rather than move down the coast, but my point was that GFS got it wrong for SE Qld. It may have got it right for NSW, but certainly got it wrong for SE Qld.
Ah, OK no worries, I understand where you're coming from.
Down here Friday and Saturday look excellent!
Looks like my hypothesis on the similarity of this event to the May'09(and June'10) event was correct.
A small scale embedded low moved west and crossed the Coffs Coast this morning with a tornado reported at Red Rock.
Luckily for us the main bulk of the "storm" swell is to the south and we are being spared the main erosive effect of a large short period swell from the E to NE.
Still looked pretty solid out here this arve with a late wind switch to the W.
I agree with Craig, EC was slow, very slow to move on this event.
Interesting turn of events. How is everyone thinking now. Reports have suggested at least two centres to the low, one inland and one offshore, and possibly more variations to come.
In fairness to the models, the variability of these events must be profound in mathematical terms.
So what's the verdict from the experts? A 50/50 result?
Freeride, your reference to the May 09 event is noted. That was one that I looked at with a little trepidation due to the precarious position of a holiday house. As it was, it ripped the guts out of a dune and took a few neighbours porches with it. Those houses now sit on the edge of a precipice.
In what can only be considered karmically interesting, the council has this week started work to install a rock toe to support the hill. After telling us that work would start at least 3 different times in the last 18 months, they have finally started work, and a weather system reminiscent of the one that caused so much trouble is bearing down on it.
Ironic.
B&F, yes there are two low pressure centres, and this has been known since the system as a whole developed.
This first is right off the Sydney coast and could be called an ECL, while the second one is out in the central Tasman Sea.
The ECL will drift offshore during today, but produce a large pulse of E'ly swell for tomorrow, while the secondary low will produce its strongest winds into Thursday evening, producing a reinforcing pulse of E'ly groundswell for Saturday.
Keep an eye on the updated forecast, should be up in an hour or two..
Sydney forecast is now updated.
Models are all now indicating a pretty explosive brew on the cards for the weekend as the predicted cold outbreak and an upper low associated with a NW cloudband from the Indian Ocean combine then track into the Coral Sea this weekend. A deep and explosively intensifying surface low is a possibility.
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Watch this space.