Tasman Low from 21 March?
Looking like something is gonna happen out there bastardos.
It all depends where that inland surface trough really starts to deepen.
The models are fairly divergent, but it looks like we'll probably get an increase in NE swell ahead of a strong burst of S'ly swell during the first half of next week.
I am also interested to see how this autumn and winter pans out!
With all the warm water from the Coral Sea flowing down the East Australia Current, any interaction with a strong cold outbreak from the Southern Ocean surely has to result in some juicy developments.
We'll watch and wait..
Based on my limited knowledge and understanding, I thought La Nina was weakening faster than previously expected/modelled and they're now saying that we could be back to Neutral conditions come late Autumn/ealy Winter??
Todays models are even more confused about what will happen with this. There is virtually no agreement for anything more than 1 day or two out. oh well - just have to wait and see
My forecast is in check it out here..
Either way I think we will see building levels of E'ly swell Sunday, becoming larger on Monday, but from then on it could go either way regarding when the S'ly swell will hit.
Each model update will give us more and more of an idea on how this one will pan out..
The models seem to have swapped forecasts. BOM thinks with a broad low forming over Tas/Vic and the EC have gone for a Low in the Tasman. On this level of uncertainty we should hope for a bit of NE windswell Monday / Tues and anything else will be a bonus
I'll be really interested to see how this plays out: less than 2 days out and still total model divergence.
EC keeps persisting with a Tasman low while the others have a weak trough of low pressure and the intense, retrograding low near Tas early next week.
Hard forecast day today :o
Sure is tough to pick. Watching with interest, if for nothing else than I can't recall seeing something like this on the forecast charts with such difference between models, and the difference amounting to very different swell parameters.
But yeah, autumn, warm water, cooler mornings and days, beautiful light. Just requires some waves and an offshore breeze to make it complete.
I think next week will be pretty damn good 'when' the trough (or low) moves further south allowing winds to swing offshore and brush clean good, sizey, crisp lines of E'ly swell.
Craig. Tuesday's models from where I'm looking (Tassie) could deliver 2 more things 1; All time NE Tassie, and 2; a once in a blue moon huge SE swell to Western Victoria, SA, and even possibly the Bight coast of WA. The unique angle of the swell may have many mysto breaks "properly only once every 2 years" spots firing. I see the possible formation of a more powerful secondary low , 996, at 43s 148e on Tues. At the same time, a high, 1028, at roughly 50s 138e. The pressure squeeze between the 2 predicted systems looks immense.
Sh*t! Looking at the models this morning, looks like Tassie's gonna get hammered! Better get out the gumboots!!!!
hi guys, so i got my first day off in i don't know how long and was wondering what the conditions will be like in the morning on the gold coast? anything different to the forecast posted yesterday?
cheers
Regarding my post at 5.16pm , 18/3/11, I'll take 3 out of 4. Yesterday - 6foot groundswell at Victor Harbour- classic conditions, 4 foot at Vicco, Israelite Bay to SA Border - swell to 2m, and today - 6 to 8 feet and off its face at NE Tassie.
Not bad for an old hack.
The BOM 10 day model has got excited about Tasman Low forming off the NSW mid north coast Sunday-Monday then intensifying and tracking to SE. The ECMWF thinks a low will form over Bass Strait but not be well positioned for swell generation for NSW coast. I am more inclined to believe the BOM model because when the trough tracking over from the west finally reaches the warm water off east coast - something has to happen. Either way I think our long summer in the doldrums could come to an end next week. With La Nina still strong we should rememeber that April to June 1974 was when all the fun happened on the east coast. Hopefully 2011 finally gets some swell from La Nina!