Swell predictions for Quickie pro;
Sounds reasonable.
Monsoon trough reintensifying through next week, although lacking a strong NW monsoonal flow to really kick off any vorticity when that strong S change comes through next weekend.
Should be enough strength in the high pressure ridge to push up 2-3ft of SE swell at the least.
today
Looks perfect for the finless mark. I'm sure Shearer will hold your knob. I mean microphone whilst you promote it once again whilst being filmed.
Gday, freeride.
I said there would be a remote chance of a low forming of SEQ around Monday week ( 7th march). Well, I reckon the chance has gone from "remote" to "fair", and in fact, we may see the low form as early as Saturday (5th march).
As the blind man says, "we'll see".
Looking better Mel.
Strong cold front seems to interact with that inland upper trough with a hybrid/ECL low progged for the Fraser Coast.
See what kind of weather comes if that comes off.
Yep, freeride, also looks like the poor old Se Queenslanders , sunnie coast in particular ( my old home town for 20+ years) are gonna need gum boots again!!!!
Swell for next Sunday! Yep, looking better and better by the second. Not only does that low I first talked about on the 25th of feb look more and more likely, so does the south swell I mentioned PLUS a new development.
Ok, a nice little fetch is developing ne of New Zealand. It's not huge, and it is a long way away, but it should push in a long distance 2 foot+ easterly ground swell from Ballina to Sunny Coast hopefully around Sunday. The reason it will make landfall is because there are no strong winds between it and Byron to knock it down or shear the top off. ( These sort of swells have often been called "mysto swells" in the past). A developing ese' fetch and ridge off SEQ on Saturday should actually help this swell along.
Next, we have 2 pulses of south swell, the first of which may miss us, but the second swell should refract slightly due to that ridge that will start forming up the east coast on Saturday.
So, the ocean will be "active" from Saturday evening onwards due to the above mentioned long distance east swell, the the refracted south swell.
That means Saturdays developing upper low over Qld and the associated fetch between it and the large high will already have something to "work with".
There's just one issue. Let's hope there's not too much east in the wind to chop up the points.
The models had the surface trough deepening off the SE Qld coast staying further south in previous model runs allowing for more favourable winds across the points but now it looks to hold a bit further north resulting in a general SE-E/SE flow.
Positive thing is that there looks to be plenty of swell from Sunday onwards.
Wonder if they'll run Thursday with an inconsistent S'ly groundswell around 2ft or so on the sets at D-bah?
Hi Craig. You write; "Wonder if they'll run Thursday with an inconsistent S'ly groundswell around 2ft or so on the sets at D-bah?"
I wonder ,too. I hope they don't. We'd all like to see the best in the world performing in quality surf.
And from what my "crystal ball" says, that trough and associated low that I've been "waffling" on about since the 25th looks like it will drift east north east off the Fraser coast and merge with some tropical activity near New Caledonia late Sunday early Monday, with the potential of a deep low/cyclone forming Tuesday, right over new caledonia. And with that large High sitting between Tassie and New Zealand at the same time, cradling the low, one could nearly say "Cowabunga dude"!!!!!
Look forward to a classic east swell next week.
ps- Also don't discard that current fetch ene of New Zealand. As I said in an earlier post, It doesn't look like much, but nothing is hindering it,and as I also suggested, as this small groundswell passes the northern tip of New Zealand on Sat, fresh south easters on the ne flank of that high will kick it along. A classic "mysto swell" scenario.
That small fetch (the one ENE of the North Island) is out near the dateline Mel (roughly 2000nm from the Goldy).
With not much more than strong winds in the fetch I'd be very surprised if that produced anything more than the ocassional background 2ft set.
And that New Cal system looks to track SE pretty quick.
The systems behind that as the Coral Sea gets "primed" again will be the ones to produce I reckon.
Still the offshore trough/low off the Fraser/Wide Bay coast should be more than enough to get things cooking.
Gday freeride.
On March 1st, I wrote, " but it should push in a long distance 2 foot+ easterly ground swell from Ballina to Sunny Coast".
So, we're pretty well in agreement on size.
On March 1st, I also wrote, "A developing ese' fetch and ridge off SEQ on Saturday should actually help this swell along".
Free ride, I realise that this swell source is a long way away. I'm not calling this swell to be a "highlight". What I am saying is, that this swell should progress nicely to around 130' south and 170east,which is roughly 1000nm. That shouldn't be a problem. It should get there by Saturday. On Saturday, at around 8.00pm edst, a decent se/e fetch should be developing around the same area, 130s 170e. The fetch will be part of the qld low and large high we've been discussing.
So, this background swell should hitch a freeride ( pardon the pun) to the east coast courtesy of saturdays forming fetch at 130s 170e.
The speak "artistically", this small groundswell will act as a "background bass drum" to the upcoming "symphony swell event" caused by the low/high combo forming off the se qld coast. The ocean will already have "something to work on".
Also, I don't know what computer models you are using, but one I frequent show a definate merger between the developing qld low and a tropical disturbance Nw of New Caledonia.
The merger will occur west of New caledonia aprox 19s - 160e, at roughly 10pm Sunday edst, then track directly into Snappers swell window, with the high perfectly postitioned.
Cheers freeride.
Hmm, flat to tiny up until Wed/Thurs. Small pulse of short south swell wed/thursdayish, then flat again. The slight chance of a long distance refracted south swell caused by a large fetch between Tassie and New Zealand Sunday week, and a very remote chance of a low forming off the SEQ coast the following Monday.
No cyclone swell whatsoever.
Let's see how I fare.