TC Yasi
At this stage it looks like it moves to quick to the west and is too far north Don.
Wouldn't expect much at all.
We'll see how the next model updates go though.
Yep, have to agree on that one Craig. Models have died, with respect to swell generating capabilities, compared to what they were showing yesterday.
Boohoo!!!!
Yasi is born and I tell ya what she looks impressive on the sat images already. JTWC is calling for a Cat 4 as she crosses the coast later this week!!!
Thurs/Fri we should see waves from her. Shame winds look ordinary, particularly along the SC.
the four day forecast looks like it is slow moving and should devast toowomba brisi and the rst of qld with lake air filling up again too after all the rain. nah nah just hoping for rain but looks like more rain for qld if a coastal crossing occurs. heaps a crop damage and rising food prices. and how big a waves donao. looks to far north but this my first year of watching tcs. they need warm water to form and travel toward other low pressure or something usually around antarctica but this one is going to qld inland trough coz of blocking high. this high is moving east so whats going to happens next anyone knows tcs have an unpredictable nature. I got a 200-000 letter word on letters and numbers yesterday you would not know it though. its a scam made up by wiki leaks. sound interesting? try this the gov tax you. oh when i was grom there was a big swell and i saw it they should bring that back. and save the hype. kirra is back the rocks are showing in front of the groin. interesting developments there for sure hehe let the words be free and the lineups be crowded. nothing like a sunday surf with 200+ hot cicks watching. 0x
tcbobmarley2stoned2croscoast think hell sit outside and straighten up while producing the best music, huge perfect lines,
Well she's certainly progged to turn into a monster. Anyone know locations that handle a NE groundswell and E/NE winds in SE Qld!!! :(
Yep.
I haven't see a TC progged to be quite so large (especially north of 20S), in ages. Looks like a mid-latitude system, not a TC!
Yep.
By: "freeride76"
Check ya PMs over on the "other" forum Steve.
I haven't see a TC progged to be quite so large (especially north of 20S), in ages. Looks like a mid-latitude system, not a TC!
By: "thermalben"
I note that EC isn't progging as much intensification within our NE swell window compared to the GFS model. Both have the system hitting the mainland as a large monster, but EC appears to have more rapid intensification (from a less intense system offshore) as it approaches the mainland compared with GFS.
What's your thoughts on this?
Combination of sites are predicting TC Yasi to hit Aust at around 18.6S (between Ingham & Townsville) possibly getting as low as 942 hPa early Thursday morning, to be influenced by the ridging high speeding it up.
There's very good model agreement and a wicked eyewall around Yasi now.
This is a very big system.
JTWC are noting intensification at climatological rates or greater.
Would like to see her slow down a tad though.
when it comes to swell direction yasi is gonna be a rare bird. im thinking insides of the islands and im thinking sharks.
lots of sharks
HI HO, HI HO, it's southern GBR I go !!!
Combination of sites are predicting TC Yasi to hit Aust at around 18.6S (between Ingham & Townsville) possibly getting as low as 942 hPa
By: "fitzroy-21"
Hey Fitzy, you got any links to the sites that show this low 942 hPa pressure? 942 hPa would certainly be a Cat 4 with wind gusts up to 250 km/hr!!!
BOM actually have it bombing out to 926hPa just as it makes land fall. That's damn close to Cat 5!!!
I wish it would slow down a tad.....still tracking in straight west. Looks to hit just north of Hinchinbrook Island on current track maps.
Hey Don, Bom presently have it down at 939 hPa in 36hrs. That is in the Tropical Disturbance section with some interesting forcasts. I also check the US Navy & Airforce sites as they have phenominal info (most that go way over my head) and over the years I have found to be pretty accurate, plus awesome close up sat photos of the system.
I'm with you freeride, it would be nice if it could stop for a day or so where it is, but regardless, I'm off on a little adventure.
Hope everyone scores something special !!
I see she's riding higher than originally forecast too which isn't helping our swell potential much either.
Aaahhhh, the unpredictability of TC's.
Probably the biggest issue out of this is the rain it will carry into central qld then onto all parts of central Australia.
I'm pretty sure that Lake Eyre (Air??) has been watered for 6 months or more now and this will see it as full as it has been for a very long time. Menindee Lakes were nearly full months ago and the latest qld rains wouldn't have got close to there yet. Murray Darling system will get the biggest clean out it has had in probably my life time.
Not so sure that Toowoomba and Brissie will get so much out of Yasi thankfully. And most of that central qld area is hardly the food bowl of oz. If it's gonna come in, and nothing is going to stop it, the current trajectory looks as good a place for it to cross as any.
An amazing meteorological year by any reckoning, going back to big falls in central qld last April/May.
This baby doesn't have long in the swell window.
With respect to the SEQLD great circle path it's tracking through it at a great rate of knots.
JTWC have it reaching Category 5 just before crossing the Queensland coast just south of Cairns.
Wednesday nights predictions are for sustained winds of 125kts around the core with guts up to 150kts
:o
Piece of crap ascat passes keep misses the bulk of our fetch also, so she's gonna be a tough one to forecast as it looks as though we're relying more on model assumptions rather than calibrated fetch readings.
Also Steve, surely radial spreading (as opposed to pure great circle fetches) plays a part in such a massive system also?
Yasi, please deliver it's been too long between drinks. I've done the mission to the spot you need to be since i was a kid and last decent one (big swell) i remember was around 1992. It always draws heaps of hype and is the most fickle spot known to mankind but the adventure is what draws everyone back. You can't beat the drive to it and i love the having the same conversation all the way there "oh is it on? is it not, i dunno?" It's a classic. See you there fellas.
Sure there gunna be radial spreading but when the bulk of the fetch is moving so fast at such an angle to the great circle path I'm counseling caution on the surf size.
By my reckoning it is now (by 6pm) just slipping out of the swell window.
Thats a fast transit.
Based on the modelled forecast fetch, I'd say SE Qld (more particularly the SC) has still got a small compact fetch of 60 knts winds on the E/SE quadrant of Yasi within the swell window as we speak and up until later tonight.
After that she's all over red rover.
So based on that I'm still inclined to think the SC will see 6ft+ sets on Thursday at NE facing beaches.
I am in Alice Springs right now so surf forecast not high on my priority.
But I am getting prepared for flooding by the weekend!!
Yeah B, Yasi looks set to dump it big time on the interior come the weekend.
Then down to SA during early next week.
Yasi, please deliver it's been too long between drinks. I've done the mission to the spot you need to be since i was a kid and last decent one (big swell) i remember was around 1992. It always draws heaps of hype and is the most fickle spot known to mankind but the adventure is what draws everyone back. You can't beat the drive to it and i love the having the same conversation all the way there "oh is it on? is it not, i dunno?" It's a classic. See you there fellas.
By: "liquid-destination"
Come on.... Any hints where?
Sounds like Noosa to me!
Hey Tripper, do some research, grab a map, do what thousands of others have, take a punt and go look. You might actually find some uncrowded gems.
Ben could be warm.
If it's not Noosa, it's gotta be Carties.
I think he means further north.
And even further north than that would be well worth a squizz.
Noosa isn't what I'd call fickle nor an adventurous drive. A spot within sight of noosa though.............
As far as this storm goes I think it's fair to say we are in uncharted territory and this will be a terrific learning experience.
The last cyclone to take a similar track (Larry) didn't produce any swell but this storm is of a far greater magnitude.
The influence of the GBR and the orientation of the QLD coastline will be extremely important factors.
Getting any actual (as opposed to model generated) satellite derived wind speeds has been extremely frustrating.....bring back QUIKSCAT.
OK, north of Carties.. you must mean Alex! A fine wave for adventurous surf seekers.
But back on track.. I'll be super interested to see how this swell propagates south of Byron. I suspect it'll be somewhat akin to a directional south swell (but obviously, in reverse) that doesn't influence 90% of NSW beaches.. but those 10% that do pull in the swell, display some incredible - and possibly sizeable - waves.
Yeah, this could be a once in a generation event.
I'm thinking outside Tallows for some macking lefts.
the price of avos trebled after larry smashed up Innisfail
dont touch the poor mans butter Yasi!
Willis Island weather station (some 450km east of Cairns) readings this morning show wind gusts of 185km/h with hpa955 at 8.10am then calm at 8.37am with hpa941.5 and dropping. Not sure if the station has been taken out or the eye is over top.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94299.shtml
Would like to post as a clickable link but not sure how (sorry).
Willis Is radar was taken out 30kms before the eye crossed. Info I've been given is the whole weather station has been taken out by Yasi, it is unknown whether storm surge/swell has anything to do with it or if Yasi's wind obliterated it. Either way it's a bloody massive system. The eye crossed clean over the top, central recorded pressure was 939hPa.
1100 qld time 922hPa.
Thanks for the update fitzroy-21. I thought it might have been taken out. No updates since 10.00am. I found this link of the weather radar up until 8.00am before it got taken out showing the size of the eye of the cyclone. Impressive and scary at the same time.
http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR412-willis-island/2011-02-...
Amazing Asharper!
The eye on that radar is incredible!!
Long period fore-runners on the Straddie Buoy.
Anyone got a surf report from the Northern Sunny Coast or Islands?
I'm out on the southern GBR, swell is slowly picking up, not real organised, and still a bit wind affected. Waiting.
At sea?
Or land based?
Make sure to take photos Fitzy!
OK, it hasn't actually formed yet, but fair to say there's some damn real excitement over the proposed TC Yasi expected to form later this weekend/early next week out near Fiji and then move westwards next week towards Qld's coastline as alluded to by EC/GFS forecasts, hence thought it was appropriate to start a thread on this one.
Edit: Just re-looked at the latest model runs and they've downgraded the system significantly until just before the mainland late next week. :( :(