Aleppo.....Syrian conflict restarting.

Yes, I saw this also this morning, another front for Putin to worry about now for those that trade in human misery, of course some may argue that in some ways it was the Syrian uprising where Putin realised what the West would allow him to get away with that led to the Crimean invasion/annexation and now war with Ukraine.

Russian interest in Syria is their Mediterranean naval base in the port of Tartar. If Assad regime forces keep collapsing that could be threatened. This is a big problem for Putin, as access to that port allows them to avoid the Bosporus choke point, controlled by Turkey. The Syrian airbases are also a transit hub for them projecting their forces into Africa etc.
Russian support was vital for Assad’s survival earlier in the civil war. Not sure if they have the capacity to pitch in now.

Sorry, Tartus…
Syrian rebel forces supported, largely, by Turkey. But a hodgepodge of Star Wars bar groups - including some ISIS aligned.

etarip wrote:

a hodgepodge of Star Wars bar groups - including some ISIS aligned.

I can imagine what that looks like

I dont know much about this civil war but its crazy how both Russia an Hezbollah/Iran are involved

From the other month

"In the aftermath of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's death, massive celebrations erupted in Idlib, Syria, with people rejoicing and honking cars in the streets. Videos circulating on social media show residents celebrating, as Nasrallah's death brings hope to many Syrians displaced by the ongoing civil war."

And another new informative video on the conflict

Holy hell if that is true that changes things. Russian air base and sea base allow access to Med and also transit to all of Africa, where they've been happily rolling French colonies with Wagner group. France may be enjoying this.

I've had a quick look post-surf here

https://www.twz.com/news-features/rebel-forces-enter-syrias-second-large...

And you just go to the comments, select 'newest' and the crowdsourced latest news and rumours keeps up with the event - links to X which I don't have, so it's good to read those from the OSINT crew as linked.

It seems there's some sort of operation in Damascus against Assad, maybe a coup, there's this:

"U.S Coalition Forces engaged Iranian Sites near the Euphrates with Artillery, as the Syrian Defense Force (SDF) has begun an Operation against the Assad Regime in Deir ez-Zor Governorate. The SDF is already claiming to have Captured the Town of Khasham."

Which seems an escalation in a different area.

And plenty of people are wondering which intel agencies are behind which players. Star Wars bar fight indeed. I've seen this movie before and would advise against using jihadis as proxies, as they are a bit excitable and planes tend to get flown into buildings 20-30 years later in your home country after helping them.

Plenty of groups with an axe to grind with Assad, Iranian-sponsored paramilitaries and the Russians in Syria. Going to get uglier. Again.
The fighting there has been brutal, with documented use of chemical weapons, pioneering use of the ‘double-tap’ strikes to kill first responders, barrel-bomb strikes on civilian population centres etc. Many of the things that the world is (rightly) protesting that Israel is doing in Gaza have been happening non-stop in Syria for a decade.

quadzilla wrote:

The first group are now at Hama, which is about 25 or so miles inland from the Russian naval base.I hope they can capture that with all the warships(usually has up to 15)
https://youtu.be/8WmVW-vxPf4

Aren't these rebels Isis, Al queda and other Islamist groups? Western supported no doubt.
What a shit show.
Russia if facing real threat of losing navel base might strike out, ya reckon they'll just take the defeat?
Geez de-escalation is going well with all these wars.

It’s a Star Wars bar @a-m.
Way too complex to ascribe it to a case of Western meddling.
Gulf states (Saudi…) provide much of the financing for the Isis aligned groups, Iran, Turkey have competing interests and proxies. Israel has a hand in undermining Hezbollah (in particular) wherever they can. The Kurds have their own aspirations.
A world of temporary arrangements, strange bedfellows and cooperation / competition. Age old enmities and modern friendships of convenience.

etarip wrote:

It’s a Star Wars bar @a-m.
Way too complex to ascribe it to a case of Western meddling.
Gulf states (Saudi…) provide much of the financing for the Isis aligned groups, Iran, Turkey have competing interests and proxies. Israel has a hand in undermining Hezbollah (in particular) wherever they can. The Kurds have their own aspirations.
A world of temporary arrangements, strange bedfellows and cooperation / competition. Age old enmities and modern friendships of convenience.

Cheers etarip.

Yeah very complex, was being a bit glib there re western backed.
Sure arms suppliers are loving their stock values though.
Guess things will get worse before they get better.... :/

How good’s Australia

I was reading about the history of the conflict and those involved and watched the vids here and others, and it's an insane complex and at times bizzare mix the number of different parties involved is crazy.

The only glue in some way on each side seems to be along Shia & Sunni lines. (And also Syria government is Shia but over 70% of people in Syria are Sunni)

I follow Israel news daily and at times over the last year ive heard strikes in Syria mentioned, but never took a lot of notice or interest especially on the numbers but there has been over 80 strikes by Israel on targets in Syria just since late September mostly on missiles etc being transported to Lebanon but also on things like weapons depots mostly Hezbollah but also anything Iran backed.

Syria plays an important role for Iran /Hezbollah because it's the only way Iran can re supply Hezbollah with rockets.

Im sure Israel would love a government change ideally for a Sunni government not aligned with Iran would really help Israel in controlling the threat of Hezbollah from Iran..

BTW. They also say the heating up in Syria actually helps ensure the ceasefire deal in Lebanon holds as many Hezbollah fighters are said to move back into Syria, but the ceasefire is only on Lebanon so Israel can still take Hezbollah targets out in Syria without breaking the ceasefire.

Seems like the Turks are playing a pretty decisive role in this iteration. Their proxy, the Syrian National Army are heavily committed in the north.
Their skin in the game: never liked Assad, feel like they got shafted after supporting Russian / Iranian intervention in 2016, they want to suppress Kurdish aspirations for autonomy in Syria, have an opportunity to reassert a level of influence in the region from the Black Sea to the Gulf and the Mediterranean that they haven’t had since 1918.

Great summary:
https://x.com/vtchakarova/status/1863335225238954128