UKRAINE the latest.

@etarip,
I don't think Trump has ever read a book! He certainly didn't read the daily Presidential briefings during his first term, and I agree with your misgivings about him and thoughts on "best friends" China and Russia.
Stalin thought Hitler was his best mate too, unaware that the Nazis had "Operation Barbarossa' in the can and ready to execute the whole time. Shock of his life when the Nazis invaded.
And I don't trust the Indians either. They play both sides, but in a global war, who knows.
But I think maybe the Russians are too far gone to be any use to the West with China, and I think sacrificing Ukraine, after all they have been through, and all the money invested by the West, in the hope of bringing them under the umbrella and dividing the axis, is way too cynical and hopeful.
Maybe a Russia without Putin, but not one with him. Too far gone now.
Where are the Russian version of the July 20 plotters? Who is the Russian Claus Von Stauffenberg?
We need a hero. like him. But put the bomb on the other side of the table leg this time!
Anyway, bedtime for me. Great little thread and discussion here IMO.
To be continued.

"I also think that if Putin himself were taken out, there would be no more war in Ukraine or any risk to NATO."

One thing put to me by some one who spend a lot of time in Russia who asked Russians regularly why do you still support Putin?

Answer: Because we could end up with some one far worse, very Russian as I understand it.

quadzilla wrote:

Supafreak wrote:

@quadzilla , Ok so the blame for this war lays solely with Putin, is that what you’re saying ? Reading about Sachs history it seems kinda strange that he’s taking this position .

SF, its only my opinion.

Firstly, POOtin grew up in the Soviet system and worked in the KGB....THAT was his ambition..

Then, theres his greed factor....he is Mr 10-25% in R-fed, he allows the oligarchs to conduct business but the first tax they pay is to Pootin.(under the table of course)

Ukraine is the biggest country in Europe, rich in minerals and the best farming land.Its around 2/3 the size of NSW.The occupied area is kinda like the length of the NSW coast and around 30-50 miles inland.The eastern occupied territory plus the Crimean peninsular is around 17% of the 1991 sovereign borders of Ukraine.Crimea is the GoldCoast(theres waves but tiny) for Russians,so tourism industry is/was prevalent.

So for Russia to control Ukraine satisfies Poomans historical warped mind and KaChing, his $$$ gathering.

Not sure if you are aware of his billion $ palace overlooking the BlackSea? It is surrounded by the latest air defence systems and makes AlBoSleezies mansion look like an outhouse(if you remember the backyard dunes lots of us grew up with).

Do not think anyone here is claiming Putin is a good guy.
But definitely more to situation than Putin being crazy expansionist like Hitler which has been the western narrative.
There is definitely geo political factors at play and to deny that is foolish in my view.
And from what I have read, it is not just Putin but most of Russia's elite that are on the same page, so getting rid of Putin would not make a difference, maybe even have someone not as rational and patient as Putin step up.
Also being expressed by western media is that he wants to take over all over eastern Europe empire wise, then in the next breath that the Russian military and their equipment is old and decrepit, and there US no way they could take Ukraine.
What is it?

Finally before I go to work, and not something I know much about and may be conspiratual, but Blackrock apparently have huge interest in Ukraine.
Is this a factor? Maybe Musk's and the other billionares with stakes do not align with Blackrock hence their support of Putin.
Anyway gotta go to work...

quadzilla wrote:

Russias elite are on the same page because its the only page OR you fall out a window, get poised, shot, starved or as your plane is flying along it gets shot out of the sky like the Wagner leaders found out.

Yes, but Hitler had a different ideology.Pooman is a Stalin clone.

BlackRock(to me) is a surfing location I used to frequent back in the 60s when it was still a secret,so I'll have to research your query.

Ok, know who BlackRock are now.

Ukraine is the jewel in the crown of Europe.I'll find more later for you to realise that its a very valuable piece of real estate.

I know that blackrock also!

Here is an article from a couple of years back. BR also heavily involved in military supplies so they are winning this war.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/blackrock-plots-to-buy-ukraine/

What’s in it for Russia? It’s less about ‘security’ and more about resources - oil / gas in the Azov and Black Seas, agricultural land, coal in the Donbas and….. people. Russian (Slavic) birth rates in decline. Ukraine was always the USSR’s ‘tech hub’. Reclaiming large parts of Ukraine and bringing all of this under Russian control underpins Make Russia Great Again. If this was just about ‘security’, Russia wouldn’t be annexing 4x oblasts (provinces) of Ukraine.
Edit: @qz beat me to it.

Russia is, at its core, a C19th colonial power. It struggles to engage with others as equals, because fundamentally it doesn’t respect the current global system. (Neither does China)

If it weren’t for nukes, Russia would not be a global power with the outsized influence it does. Economically, culturally, ideologically it’s just not that influential.

This is an age old problem for Russian leaders. Anyway, empires… and imperial models:
A good listen: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/school-of-war/id1589160645?i=10006...

The USA / Russia stuff is at the end but it’s a great listen.

quadzilla wrote:

Not sure if you are aware of his billion $ palace overlooking the BlackSea? It is surrounded by the latest air defence systems and makes AlBoSleezies mansion look like an outhouse(if you remember the backyard dunes lots of us grew up with).

mmm... backyard dunes... I remember playing in remnant metro sandhills between Brighton Jetty and Kingston Caravan Park... empty blocks along the esplanade still had old sand dunes on them back then .. all mcmansions now. (though my son and I went and had a look behind the very-un-mcmansion 3 story yellow-brick flats next to the Seacliff Hotel, and the little concrete 'wave' next to their outback laundry that we used to skate on as 10 year olds, and piss off the residents is still there!! mini-yew!)

etarip wrote:

Economically, culturally, ideologically it’s just not that influential.

I beg to differ with that statement!! Proof below.

oh, great gazza, now I'm gonna have a non-existent latino dance song called 'lada niva' going round in my head.. and I can tell it's gonna have 'hot hot hot' at the end of whatever it becomes...

Ha! , you got me gaz.

MRGA!!! Lada Niva for errywun!!!

Hot hot hot

Supafreak wrote:

@Adam12 & @flollo , am I right in assuming that you believe Sachs statements and take on history are false ? I wouldn’t know so I’m genuinely asking . He comes across as a rational guy .

Hi Supa, I will not say events Sachs talks about didn't happen. So I will agree that he is factually correct. But this is only one part of the picture. Like one paragraph in a book. He's an American guy questioning American involvement. He has the right to do so. But just remember that there many other players, including citizens of Ukraine itself that need to be asked for their opinion. What kind of life do they want? As much as we appreciate the strength of the US, they are not pulling all the strings. Sachs is giving them way too much credit while ignoring everyone else. And this is not a correct way to look at things.

adam12 wrote:

flollo wrote:

It's unbelivable how one sided some of this discussion is. Ukraine was in active talks with the EU to sign the Association Agreement in the early 2010s. An agreement which would serve as basis for potential membership in the EU. According to the polls, Ukraine's citizens supported joining the EU. But then Yanukovych, under an immense pressure and bribery from Russia, does 180 in 2013. He signs a deal with Russia and snubs the EU. What else would you expect from his corrupted system. EU comes with certain level of oversight while Russia doesn't give a shit.

People revolt but Yanukovych basically pushes legislation banning public protest. Over the next few months hundreds are dead and thousands left traumatised as protestation never stopped. And some in here are supportive of this? All these commentators conveniently point straight to 2014 and say - CIA initiated! Was it? I don't think so. Where they there in some capacity? I would say yes but so were the Russians.

Meanwhile, nearby Poland is pushing their GDP towards $1 trillion. Nearly x 5 per capita when compared to Ukraine. How different would Ukraine be if it joined the EU? But why would Russia allow that, better leave it poor and corrupted. And unfortunately, half of people in the West are supportive of this nonsense.

Great post @flollo,
Not surprised an actual Eastern European such as yourself whose own homeland went through war recently has the right perspective on Ukraine.
There was also the dioxin poisoning of President Yushchenko back in 2004 by the Russians during the election, Putin has been actively undermining them for a long time.

All these "what are the West doing there" Putin stooges, like the coward Joe Rogan, seem to forget that the Ukrainians voted for Zelensky and for closer ties with the EU in a legitimate sovereign act of self determination, it was at relative peace after years of turmoil and Russia attacked it in an act of war.
Not for the first time either.
And the West, including most notably the US and UK, agreed to go to their aid in the event they were attacked as part of the arrangement to remove the nukes under the Budapest Memorandum, in which Russia also gave assurances to respect Ukrainian sovereignty. Russia lied.

Putin is the aggressor, Do you just roll over to aggressors now because they were stupid enough to fire a ballistic weapon? But not stupid enough to fire it without notifying the US because had they not done so Moscow would be a cinder city. The M.A.D. doctrine still deters Russia. That hasn't and won't change.

Ukraine signed the Treaty for Non Proliferation as part of the deal to remove the nukes.
Ukraine was not a containment territory, it did not have nuclear weapons pointed at Russia, the "what if Cuba" argument is inapplicable.
There are good reasons why the West has sought to contain Russia, that are now self evident, but it wasn't doing it with Ukrainian territory. There were no nukes pointed at Moscow from Ukrainian soil.

Trump will/has already appointed a "tsar" to "solve" the war, while he goes golfing.
If the US just fold to Putin's wishes, then it only weakens American "greatness". the other NATO members will persevere.
There were reasons why the Rules Based Order came into being, an isolationist American President may seek to undermine it, (and the US support of Israeli genocide and war crimes in Gaza certainly has), but there are enough other countries in the free world that will continue to try to enforce it, and enough legal and political machinery that it will not disintegrate.
And NATO will keep going with or without the Americans
.
And for those asking what would the US do if BRICS missiles were put in Cuba or Venezuela, take it a step further, what do you think the US would do if they were attacked without provocation by another state like Ukraine was, do you think they would just lie down and take it like you expect Ukraine to?
No.
Just like Ukraine they would fight, and keep fighting until victory or defeat, until the invaders left US soil. Do you think they would listen to EU nations, or European podcasters, telling them to give up and give in to a bully?
No fucking way.
Is the world now just going to let nuclear armed states do what they want because they threaten using nuclear weapons?
M.A.D. still applies. Still a deterrent. Putin isn't going to nuke anyone, just bully them, and sabre rattle.
Because the truth is he fucked it up, he's so isolated and has his generals living in such fear of him he's getting misinformation and making grave miscalculations, like "we can take Ukraine in a week".
Hitler did the same thing. Particularly in Russia coincidentally.
The minute he puts North Korean or Houthi or whatever other nations fighters on the ground in Ukraine and not defending Russian soil like they are currently, NATO has legal justification to deploy troops into Ukraine, and they are ready to do so with or without the Americans.

Trump can boast he can fix it all he likes, but unless the US backs Zelensky in, it's the US that will come out the loser, as well as Ukraine, American hegemony will be in the shitter, no good for them, no good for anyone. But one good thing Trump may have done, he woke up the other NATO states, and they won't be surrendering anything to Putin if they can help it.
No one wants war, but some are worth the fight.

Yes, you are 100% correct. I don't like this isolationist policy at all. Looking at it from the long term perspective, US will definitely come out as a loser. I kind of hope that Trump is bluffing to get increased funding from other NATO members. Narrative in the EU changed dramatically as he won. Many are calling for increased defence funding and more independence. Macron is very vocal about it, he talks about it strongly:

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-france-europe-us-electio...

andy-mac wrote:

And @ flollo

Sorry if any of my comments have upset you as you are more involved than some Australian bloke tapping on keyboard.

Maybe coming a bit from biased view as do have a little knowledge from my studies of USA/CIA meddling in other countries, primarily Indonesia in the lead up to the communist purge in 65.

All good mate. Generally speaking, there is plenty that I don't like about US involvement in other countries. I don't want to sound like I'm in approval with it all. But in this Ukraine/Russia case a lot of these videos simply paint an incomplete, biased picture. I'm not saying that it's all wrong. I'm deliberately calling it incomplete for a reason.

@flollo. I really appreciate the way you present your opinions on here. Clear, concise, balanced. Thanks.

I’ve been reading up about Sachs and as much as there’s good things said about him there’s also plenty of not so good. I’ve never heard of NE global before or James Wilson but he really writes Sachs off . https://www.neglobal.eu/jeffrey-sachs-three-times-a-traitor/ The Hill was also not kind . https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4727046-from-economist-to-krem... It’s not always easy to find the truth . Both articles I realise are opinions of the authors .

Some great posts since yesterday! @etarip I fully agree with your chain of thought.

Russia doesn't want powerful neighbours. They want Ukraine to be like Belarus; subjugated, corrupt and poor. A place where politicians win elections before the election is held. Prosperous communities just across the border might give Russian population some undesirable ideas.

Freaking Texas has bigger GDP and more guns than Russia (well, citizens probably do, I'm guessing a bit on this one). Russia is an economical shithole, held by powerful and rich oligarchy while most of general population doesn't have much. Historically speaking, population was always poor. Read Dostoevsky and you can really feel it. Serfdom was still in the effect well into the 19th century. Russian ruble is falling off a cliff. Interest rate is 21% and it will probably go higher. Inflation is rampant. What will happen when Russian soldiers realise their risks of being blown to pieces in Ukraine don't buy groceries for a family back home?

The idea that Russia can sustain broader invasion across Europe is ridiculous. They are not to be feared of. They can't even beat corrupt Ukraine. Yes, they have some nasty weapons and they might use them. But they will get x 10 in return and it would take them decades to recover.

@Quadzilla,
Hey Quadz, I don't think I've ever commented directly to you before but I think I kind of owe you a bit of an apology. I used to see some of your Albosleazy posts and the Pauline vids and kind of wrote you off and would skim your comments, but I was wrong about you.
You are very much worth reading, especially on this topic.
The story you told about that happy 16 y.o. Polish apprentice whose life got turned upside down by the two European dictators, your dad, and your knowledge and commentary here has really impressed me.
Just wanted to say that.
I'm learning a lot from this thread, and from you Quadz.
carry on boys.

@quadzilla , I don’t bother watching the PH cartoons or read the albosleezy comments but don’t really care that you post them . I put up heaps of shit bagging spud and the LNP so all’s fair in my books . I do like your input on fins and the outer islands surfboards . We have never really put shit on each other and I’m enjoying reading your input on this thread . I initially posted the short sachs speech on instagram more as a , what about what he’s saying ? It was an uneducated post by me but at least it got this thread rolling after it went a bit quiet when you first started this thread . I don’t know much about this war , or its history , so I’m appreciating all the input and civil responses from everyone . I can’t ever see Ukraine defeating Russia , some type of negotiation is coming hopefully sooner rather than later .

+1 On this thread being educational thanks to informative posting. Hope it stays that way.

PS - I'll also fess up that I asked quadzilla if he was Rowan Dean in disguise once. It was in jest though. Anyway!!

quadzilla wrote:

Title of the thread comes from this podcast.its very informative and happens most days.Scroll to 1.38 to get past the useless advert crap.
https://youtu.be/Fl64EaDVoEc?list=PLJnf_DDTfIVCYlsANGtNkzMeM9Fdmqzxr

thanks for sharing this link.

First looser in war is the truth.

- good ol ‘empire mentality’ ;)

…always interesting (and hypocritical) when europeans try to highlight ‘empirical’ aspirations or accuse others of suffering ‘empirical nostalgia’ haha

https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2022/12/12/britain-100-million-india-dea...

“ It is also apparent that the shared history of the hemisphere is one which is framed by the dual tragedies of genocide and slavery, both of which are part of the legacy of the European invasions of the past 500 years. Indigenous people both north and south were displaced, died of disease, and were killed by Europeans through slavery, rape, and war. In 1491, about 145 million people lived in the western hemisphere. By 1691, the population of Indigenous Americans had declined by 90–95 percent, or by around 130 million people.”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide_of_indigenous_peoples#:~:text=I....

… the ‘empire’ principle (& mentality) still thrives in the UK, US and other colonies - no different to our historical record of whale slaughter to sustain early settlements - we did stuff back then and it was for our own purposes and interests, if you do it now though it’s wrong so stop it !

- ukraine the latest : russia bad ummm soviet nostalgic reflexive control etc blah blah , west is good ummm war is not a racket & atacm and storm shadow gift$ repre$ent freedom, liberty and la$ting peace and $tability hahaha

… carry on ;)

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/despicable-escalation-russia-unleash...

Are you trying to say that Russia is a European imperial power?

No.

- sometimes you’re wrong ;)

(like sacks vs sachs)

… carry on ;);)

… then
- and now ;)

https://m.

So, Russia is not an imperial power? Interesting take. Was it ever?

…so ummm ;)

- west is good ummm war is not a racket & atacm and storm shadow gift$ repre$ent freedom, liberty and la$ting peace and $tability hahaha

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68136840

… ummm :
- “ Last year, the Defense Department set a record for sales of military equipment and hardware, especially among European partners and allies, said the director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency. “

$$$

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3736017/dod-ha...

… carry on ;)

;);)

https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-supporting-ukraine-revitalizing-us-def...

https://www.analystnews.org/posts/as-the-war-in-ukraine-drags-on-america...

^ ‘imperial power’ 101 ;)

Yeah, that’s the US ‘model’. It’s different from the Russian system of empire. All the other ‘west good’ stuff is your verbal diarrhea mate. Keep on though buddy, you’re doing well.

Yes. Of course ;)
…war is a racket ;);)

- ‘models’, ‘systems’ hahaha (different but the $ame)
… like ummm ‘unprovoked’, ‘illegal’, ‘sovereignty’ & ‘coup’

$$$

…carry on ;)

https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/us-european-big-oil-prof...

- conflicted interest$ ;)
… & an intere$t in conflict ;);)

(they’re doing well)

$$$

https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/what-the-us-has-to-gain-from-supp...

You’re wobbling a bit jelly. Take a break mate.

- hahaha
… so you’re saying war is not a racket ;)

(thanks again for your eggspurt opinionalysis)

- carry on ;);)

https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-supporting-ukraine-revitalizing-us-def...

$$$

Where did I say that?
It’s all a racket. War is politics by other means. And politics is a racket. Literally.
Russia’s position is a racket - nothing to do with security. All to do with resources. US interest isn’t just about ‘democracy’, and it's way more than defense industry. At least I can admit that.

^ well ummm
… “that’s good, that’s pretty good” ;)

https://m.