Western Australian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon November 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Long range swell and overlapping SW swell Tues, holding into Wed with offshore winds, tending NE on Wed
• Moderate reinforcing swells this week with S’ly winds Thurs/Fri
• More moderate SW swells over the weekend with offshore winds
• S’ly winds return early next week
• Close range SW swell Wed then solid SW groundswell Thurs with winds possibly improving

Recap

Conditions improved over the weekend as S/SW swell filled in, hampered by S’ly winds on Sat. By Sun winds had shifted more E/SE-SE and with size to 4-5ft (2ft in Perth/Mandurah) there were some good waves around. Size continued into this morning with fresh offshore winds before a seabreeze kicked in. Quite a few offshore days ahead with moderate swell.

Howling offshores and solid sets this morning

This week and next week (Nov18- Nov 29)

The leading edge of  large high pressure belt has slipped in under the state with a trough of low pressure moving down the west coast amplifying an offshore flow through the SW corner. We’ll see those offshore winds through tomorrow, shifting more NE on Wed before the trough off low pressure slips to the SW and winds shift more S’ly through the a’noon.

Surf-wise we’re still looking at a blend of long range W/SW and shorter range SW swells to 4-6ft tomorrow in the SW, 2-3ft in Mandurah and Perth. Apart from gusty offshore winds there should be some good waves around.

The Indian Ocean remains in a progressive pattern with a large high pressure belt and zonal disturbances in the Roaring 40’s supplying moderate overlapping SW pulses on a 24-36hr basis. Basically, overlapping swell pulses from these zonal storms will hold moderate surf all week, with subtle ups and downs. Local winds will be the more pressing issue.

Tuesday’s size extends into Wed before easing and with NE winds on tap, select reef breaks come into play. 

Winds look more tricky from Wed onwards. We should see S’ly winds Thurs and Fri as the west coast trough of low pressure slowly clears to the East. They look like lay days as swells are unlikely to be offering much at protected locations.

Winds then improve over the weekend as another belt of high pressure slips in under the state and winds shift back offshore. That sets up fun 3-4ft surf Sat, building a notch Sun as a reinforcing pulse fills in. Smaller 2ft in Perth/Mandurah. 

Into next week and we should see a more significant swell fill in mid week.

To start, winds look to tend S’ly again Mon and into Tues as a new high pressure ridges in. With only mid sized 3-4ft of swell in the water surf options will be limited.

A front tracking towards the state brings a blast of close range SW swell into Wed, up into the 4-6ft range in the SW, 2-3ft in Perth and Mandurah but with fresh S’ly winds.

A deeper system tracking through the near swell window Sun/Mon with severe gales and  a wide swathe of seas in excess of 30ft then brings a stronger SW groundswell later Wed into Thurs, with size up into the 6-8ft range in the SW, 3ft in Mandurah, 2ft in Perth. Winds should be on the improve as another high gets ready to slip under the state but we’ll see how that is looking on Wed.

Seeya then.