Western Australian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri November 15th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Nice sized S/SW swell fills in Sat with S;’ly winds tending SE
• Size holds in Sun with winds more E/SE-SE, tending E’ly 
• Long range swells next week with offshore winds
• Moderate reinforcing swells later next week with a bias towards offshore winds, tending NE-N on Wed

Recap

Small surf yesterday with size between the Capes to 3ft and 2ft or less in Mandurah, 1-1.5ft in Perth. Conditions were reasonable early under SE winds, before fresh S’ly seabreezes kicked in. Similar sized surf today but surface conditions have worsened under a mod S’ly flow. 

A few fun, small waves on the reefs yesterday morning before the seabreeze

This weekend and next week (Nov16- Nov 22)

No great change to the weekend forecast. A front has tipped the state with a new high pressure centre ridging in. That will see a S’ly flow tomorrow, SE-S/SE early before tending more SE in the a’noon as a trough moves down from the mid-west. 

A fetch passing under the state today generates some nice S/SW swell which is expected to fill in during the a’noon. Undersized 3ft to start in the SW (tiny in Perth/Mandurah) with sets building to 4-5ft in the a’noon- 2ft or less in Mandurah and Perth. We should see some fun waves as winds swing SE in the a’noon.

That size holds into Sun morning and winds look to tend more E/SE-SE in the morning as high pressure slips under the state and the trough moves southwards. Definitely should be plenty of fun waves in the SW on Sun, much smaller in Perth/Mandurah due to the S’ly swell direction adding to the blocking effect from reefs and inshore islands.

Into next week and offshore winds freshen into Mon as a new trough forms offshore from the Gascoyne and moves southwards. We’ll see freshening E’ly winds Mon tending E/SE-SE during the day. We’ll see a mix of smaller swells to 3ft across the SW, 1-2ft or less in the north before a new long range SW swell fills in during the a’noon, generated under Africa. That should translate to sets to 5-6ft in the SW corner, 2-3ft in Mandurah, 2ft in Perth. 

Size holds into Tues, augmented by a new swell generated  by a fetch tracking between 45-50S under the state Sun/Mon with a wide swathe of seas in excess of 20ft. That should keep sets in the 4-5ft occ. 6ft range through Tues , reinforced Wed by another SW pulse, smaller 2-3ft in Mandurah and 2ft in Perth. 

Offshore E’ly winds persist through Tues, tending NE through N on Wed as the trough approaches the SW corner. There should plenty off fun options as winds swing E through NE during this period.

Back to S’lies on Thurs as the trough moves south of the state and a new high ridges in. Those S’lies should start to tend more S/SE Fri, then SE through E/SE over the weekend and the large band of high pressure moves under the state. 

Further ahead and the Indian Ocean storm track remains progressive, with high pressure belt starting to suppress storms along zonal path suggesting more small/moderate pulses arriving at regular intervals and no major swells. We’ll see how that looks when we come back Mon. For now, looks like some fun waves Sun.

Hope you get some and have a great weekend!