Western Australian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed November 6th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Sizey S/SW swell filling in Fri with winds tending E-SE
• S/SW swell holding into Sat with SE winds
• Easing swells Sun/Mon
• More sizey SW swell Tues/Wed next week with SE winds
• Smaller into the end of next week with improving winds

Recap

Onshore winds have continued across the SW of the state with mod/fresh SW winds yesterday continuing into today. Size in the 4-5ft range between the Capes has built to 6-8ft today with smaller 2-3ft surf in Perth/Mandurah and some small but better quality waves in the sheltered bays. 

Onshore but surfable in the metro area

This week and next week (Nov6 - Nov 15)

No great change to the short term outlook- a strong polar low flared up as it passes under WA and today with gales to severe gales well aimed at SW and southern WA.

We’ll see easing surf tomorrow, still sizey in the 4-5ft range early but easing through the day. The onshore SW flow looks like it will still be there but at a lower level.

Friday is a different story. Strong S/SW swell from the current fetch fills in tomorrow, with early size to 5-6ft building to 6-8ft in the SW with bigger sets. Smaller 2ft in the north due to the swell direction. Winds finally loom good as a high pressure ridge builds under the state and an inland surface trough extends down the west coast. That should see morning E-E/SE winds, shifting S’ly then S/SE’ly in the a’noon.

Size then holds into Sat at similar levels before easing through the day, with winds tending more SE as another high moves in from the Indian Ocean. 

Easing swells Sun with leftovers to 3-4ft in the SW, smaller 1-2ft in the north. We’ll see a continuation of SE winds with fresh S’ly seabreezes.

Into next week and swell potential from the Indian Ocean storm track looks more limited as a large blocking high suppresses the storm track. We’ll see  zonal fetches tracking well to the SW of WA over the weekend generate some moderate SW swell for Tues with size expected in the 5-6ft range for the SW, 2-3ft in Perth/Mandurah. We should see a window of SE-E/SE winds before S’ly seabreezes kick in.

There is some model divergence around this low with GFS suggesting a more NE track which would hold solid surf into Wed while EC suggests a more zonal track which would see easing surf into Wed. We’ll see how that looks on Fri.

Further ahead and a moderate storm tracking E/NE of Heard Island next week and a disturbance in Madagascan latitudes later next week suggests more small SW swell into the end of next week and a long range W/SW swell early week after that. Winds look to shift more offshore late next week as high pressure shifts under the state and a trough of low pressure forms off the Gascoyne.

Check back Fri for the latest.