Western Australian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon July 15th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent long-range W/SW groundswell building Tue with strengthening NE tending N/NE-N winds
• Large W/SW-SW groundswell Wed with strong N’ly tending NW then W’ly winds as a cold front clips the state
• Solid, easing W/SW-SW swell Thurs with more onshore winds
• Period of onshores and mid period large storm surf sets in from Fri, over the weekend and extends into Mon
• Easing onshore winds later Mon into Tues
• We may see SE winds develop later Tues into Wed
• Mid-sized S/SW groundswell Wed next week

Recap

Easing but still solid SW groundswell Sat saw 6-8ft sets across exposed breaks between the Capes with smaller 2-3ft sets in Mandurah, 2ft in Perth under offshore E/NE winds and a variable flow. Easing surf Sun has continued into today with small fun 3ft surf across exposed breaks in the SW corner, tiny/flat north of Bunbury. 

Fun waves at exposed breaks in the SW under a light/variable flow

This week and next week (Jul 15 - 26)

Still on track for some long-range W/SW groundswell building Tue with strengthening NE tending N/NE-N’ly winds as a cold front approaches from the W. Expect a mix of inconsistent W/SW swell to 4ft building strongly to 6-8ft in Margarets, 3ft in Mandurah., 2-3ft in Perth. 

Solid again Wed with 8ft sets across the SW, 3ft in Mandurah and 2-3ft in Perth. Winds are expected to turn nasty Wed as a cold front clips the state with fresh NW winds tending W’ly and then SW as the front passes. There may be a brief window of NE winds in Mandurah and Perth, less likely in the SW. 

Easing swells from 6-8ft Thurs in the SW, 3ft in Mandurah, 2-3ft in Perth but onshore winds continue as another front clips the state then a high pressure cell riding to the north supplies W’ly ridging with a zonal flow to the south. Expect a mod/fresh onshore SW tending W’ly flow, suitable only for winter style waves north of the Cape, which will be tiny.

The onshore pattern remains established over the weekend with high pressure riding at sub-tropical latitudes and a zone of enhanced storminess riding NE with seas in excess of 25ft later this week. You’ll have to get north of Geraldton to find offshore winds again on the northern side of the high.

 We’ll see large stormy swells from multiple fetches in this storm zone from Fri over the weekend, up to 8-10ft Sat, bigger 10ft+ Sun in the SW, 3ft+ own Mandurah and 3ft in Perth. Expect fresh/strong W-W/NW winter onshores, with just a few winter breaks offering a rideable wave.

That strong onshore flow and large, mid-period storm surf continues into Mon at similar size, easing in the a’noon but remaining large.

We may see winds improve Tues into Wed as a trough forms off the WA central-west coast but models are mixed so it’s hard to have any confidence this far out. A S’ly flow is likely, potentially tending SE-E under a best case scenario. We should see new S/SW swell fill in ether later Tues, more likely Wed into the 6ft+ range in the SW, 2ft in Mandurah, 1-2ft in Perth from a deep fetch passing under the state Sun/Mon.

We’ll see how that looks Wed. 

Seeya then.