Western Australia Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 12th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Window of good winds Fri AM with solid leftover surf
• Mostly onshore winds this weekend with some moderate pulses
• Favourable winds expected early next week with solid swells, biggest Mon
• More moderate pulses expected from Wed into later next week with mostly favourable winds
• More active storm track expected medium term, check back Mon for the latest

Recap

Lumpy solid surf in the 8-10ft range yesterday between the Capes, 2-3ft in Mandurah, 2ft in Perth tried to clean up through the day under variable winds. Today has seen cleaner surf under a NE flow with solid 6ft+ surf between the Capes, 2-3ft in Mandurah and Perth. Winds are now tending more NNE through the day and expected to clock around NNW in the a’noon.

Easing but still some sets with NE winds

This weekend and next week (May12 – May 19)

No change to the weekend f/cast. A weak front tips the SW of the state and brings an onshore W’ly Sat, tending SW on Sun, more SE in Perth/Mandurah. We’ll see some moderate pulses over the weekend, from follow-up fetches to tomorrows cold front. Sat should push up into the 4-6ft range in the SW, smaller 2-3ft in Perth/Mandurah.

Another pulse Sun reaches similar heights with better winds north of Bunbury. 

Monday still looks the goods as a high pressure ridges in under the state and offshore winds establish. A strong zonal storm generating 20-30ft seas in a wide swathe between 50-55S as it tracks through the WA swell window is on track to send 6-8ft surf through Mon, smaller 2-3ft in Perth, 3ft in Mandurah. Expect that swell to fill in mid-morning.

Light offshore winds Tues under a weak, troughy pattern see easing surf from Monday’s peak with 6ft sets in the morning, 2-3ft in Mandurah, 2ft in Perth. Light/late seabreezes are possible in the a’noon.

Winds look to remain mostly offshore through most of next week with another stanza of small/mod pulses ahead. A slow moving gyre under Africa sends some long range pulses for later next week, with a suppressed zonal storm track in the more favourable WA swell window. An intense but compact cut-off low tracking well north of Heard Island Sun/Mon (see below) generates a moderate pulse for later next week.

Intense cut-off low generates swell for later next week

Easing surf should stabilise around 3ft on Wed smaller 1-2ft surf in Mandurah/Perth.

A fresh pulse of moderate SW swell rebuilds surf to 4ft between the Capes later Thurs, easing into Fri.

Further moderate pulses f similar size are expected over the weekend 20-21/5 with SE winds.

Further ahead and the storm track becomes more active in the Central Indian Ocean suggesting a more substantial week following this next one.

Craig will be back Mon to look at that wth fresh eyes so tune in then.

Until then, have a great weekend!