Western Australia Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Friday November 4th)

Best Days: protected spots Saturday, Sunday morning in the South West, Tuesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• W/SW-SW winds Fri, with a reinforcing SW groundswell for the PM
• Early peak in S/SW groundswell Sat, easing with moderate S/SE tending stronger winds in the South West (S/SE-SE to the north in the AM)
• Smaller Sun with moderate E/SE tending stronger S/SE winds (S/SW further north in the PM)
• Easing surf Mon with S/SW winds
• New, moderate sized SW swell for later Mon PM, peaking Tue AM with E tending SW winds
• New mid-sized pulse Wed PM with SW winds expected, remaining onshore Thurs
• Moderate sized pulse expected next Fri with dodgy winds- check back Mon for revisions

Recap

Pumping surf yesterday with 6-8ft sets across the SW corner, 2ft+ in Mandurah and 1-2ft across Perth, clean under mod/fresh E/NE winds which eased back during the day and tended to variable/seabreezes in the a’noon.

Today has been a lay day for all but the very keen with onshore winds, easing swells and no quality surf across the region.

This weekend and next week (Nov 4 - 11)

No great change for the weekend f/cast.  We’re expecting a new pulse which arrives overnight to thicken up through tomorrow morning with sets to 6 and occasionally 8ft from mid morning in the SW corner, smaller 2ft in Mandurah and 1-2ft in Perth. Expect a slightly more S’ly angle to this swell compared to Thursdays pulse. Winds look OK for protected and semi-protected spots as a high ridges in, bringing a morning SE-SSE flow, likely tending SE and freshening through the a’noon as the high begins to slip south of the state.

Straight offshore winds are expected Sun, providing groomed conditions as surf eases to 4ft, tiny in Perth and Mandurah.

Winds don’t look too bad now on Mon but with a trough passing to the S they’ll tend SSE-SE through the morning, before tracking E/SE again on Tuesday. A weakening polar front is expected to generate a new mid-sized SW swell showing through Mon a’noon and peaking Tues with size in the 5-6ft range at exposed SW reefs, smaller 2ft in Mandurah and 1-2ft in Perth.

Winds look to go dodgy again Wed as a trough approaches although a window of weak/variable offshores is on the cards. There should be leftover 3-4ft surf in the SW corner, tiny north of Busselton before a new pulse arrives later in the day, pushing wave heights back up to 5-6ft in the SW. This will be generated by a polar low transiting past Heard Island staying below 50S as it tracks through the Southern Ocean Sat/Sun, weakening through Mon under current modelling (see below).

Onshore winds pad out Thurs under current modelling with a next pulse of swell coming Fri as a front sharply tracks NE towards WA Tues/Wed. There’s still some model divergence over this scenario so check back Mon for Craig’s notes but it looks like another mid-size pulse in the 6ft range in the SW, smaller 2ft in Mandurah and 1-2ft in Perth. Winds don’t look great with the decaying front hitting the SW corner and bringing SW winds with it.

Surf then eases into next weekend with S’ly winds Sat, possibly improving Sun as a large high begins to ridge in under the state.

The next pulses look to be SW-SSW in direction as NW and W’ly gales pass under the state next weekend but check back Mon and we’ll see how they are shaping up.

Until then, have a great weekend.