Western Australia Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri October 28th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small/mod pulse Sat with good morning winds, with an increase Sun PM and freshening SSW winds
• Mod SSW pulse Mon with S’ly winds, slowly easing Tues with winds improving
• Mod pulses continue next week with favourable winds establishing with a possible quiet spell first week of Nov

Recap

Booming surf yesterday with strong SW groundswell and offshore winds combining to supply clean 10-12ft surf across the SW, smaller 3ft at Mandurah and 2-3ft in Perth. Today has eased back with still-strong 5-6ft surf in the Margarets region, smaller 2ft in Mandurah and 1-2f in Perth. Conditions were clean under offshore winds, now tending S’ly. 

This weekend and next week (Oct 26 - Nov4)

Get in early Sat as SE winds blow as an embedded low drifts down from the Central West. Once that system moves E we’ll see fresh S’ly winds set in. Expect size in the 4ft range between the Capes with 2ft surf in Mandurah and 1ft surf in Perth.

Fresh S’lies then carry through Sun as a strong ridge builds in from the Indian Ocean in conjunction with an approaching front. That will see 3-4ft surf through the morning build from the SSW through the a’noon into the 4-5ft range between the Capes, smaller further north due to swell shadowing. Quality will be low under fresh SSW winds.

Size builds overnight and peaks Mon morning in the 6ft range between the Capes, smaller 2ft in Mandurah and 1ft in Perth. Quality remains poor under a mod SSW to S’ly flow.

We should start to see an improvement in winds Tues as a double-centred high starts to ridge in as it approaches the state, with winds shifting more SSE, although expect plenty of S’ly sea state on it Tues morning. SSW swell to 4-6ft between the Capes eases down through the day with smaller 2ft surf in Mandurah, 1ft in Perth.

Through the rest of next week and swells now look smaller due to the blocking high pressure pattern we mentioned on Mon and Wed.

A polar storm on Sun/Mon, briefly flares up before passing Heard Island then gets shunted rapidly S’wards by the blocking high (ee below). Thus, we’re now expecting a much smaller swell Thurs, with long period SW swell in the 4-5ft range , easing slightly into Fri. Winds look good as high pressure moves under the state into the Bight, directing an offshore flow across the SW land division and coastal areas.

Longer term and the blocking pattern does look to break down quite quickly, suggesting a return to mod swell activity at the least through the early part of November. Craig will be back Mon to see how that is shaping up so check back in then and have a great weekend.