Western Australia Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed October 26th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Late kick in size Wed PM with winds tending SSE
• Solid pulse in SW swell Thurs with offshore winds AM, easing through Fri
• Small/mod pulse Sat, with an increase Sun PM
• Mod SSW pulse Mon with SE-S winds
• Mod pulses continue next week with favourable winds establishing with a possible quiet spell first week of Nov

Recap

Not much surf to report since Mon. Yesterday saw a  kick in swell to 4-5ft in the Margarets region, smaller 2ft in Mandurah and 1-1.5ft in Perth but conditions were crummy under SW winds. Today has seen size ease right back to 2-3ft in the SW, tiny in Mandurah and Perth with SE winds early, tending SW through the day. A strong swell is now beginning to show across the SW with building swells on the bommies and reefs.

This week and next week (Oct 26 - Nov4)

No great changes to this week’s f/cast. Strong swell is already building with winds tending SSE across the SW corner as a small high pressure cell slips in beneath the state. 

That augurs well for offshore winds through tomorrow with a strong swell to 8ft+ expected across the SW corner and bigger 10ft surf at deepwater reefs and bommies. Expect smaller 3ft+ surf at Mandurah and 2-3ft surf in Perth.

Swell then eases down through Fri with 4-6ft sets in the SW, smaller 2-3ft in Mandurah and 2ft in Perth. Conditions should be excellent with an offshore E/SE breeze, tending to S’lies through the day.

Into the weekend and a trailing fetch supplies an small boost in longer period swell Sat in an otherwise easing trend. Expect 3ft surf early with some 4ft sets during the day from the longer period source with winds tending S’ly as a front and leading edge of a high pressure ridge brush the state.

An intensification of the front as it passes under the state aims gales to towards the South Coast, with the SW corner getting brushed by SSW swell which should increase Sun a’noon under fresh SSW winds. 

Solid SSW swell then fills into 6-8ft between the Capes Mon under a mod S’ly flow, with smaller 2ft surf in Mandurah and Perth 1-1.5ft. Both shadowed by the Cape to Cape region under that swell direction.

Next week sees a high slip in under the state with winds tending SSE-SE Tues, more SE-ESE then E from Wed until Fri. 

Into this offshore flow we’ll see some small/mod swells make landfall.

A strong disturbance near Heard Island Sun/Mon (see below) generates seas to 30ft before being shunted southwards as it passes 90E. This will generate a series of SW swell pulses beginning Tues with surf in the 4ft range, smaller from Mandurah to Perth. This pulse holds into Wed at similar sizes before a stronger pulse builds wave heights to 4-5ft Thurs into Fri morning. This should spell a good run of small/medium sized surf in the SW corner with some fun waves at Mandurah and Perth of lesser size.

Blocking high pressure then supresses the storm track later next week suggesting a quieter period into the first weekend of Nov and beyond.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.