Western Australia Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri October 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• W/SW winds Fri with a moderate sized, late building SW swell, peaking Sat AM
• E tending S winds Sat, mod NE tending variable Sun with easing surf
• Small/mod pulses next week under a mostly SW-S flow, biggest Thurs/Fri
• More S’ly quarter winds and small/mod swells expected next weekend

Recap

Very sub-par conditions since Wed with a constant onshore flow from the SW to W/SW and size topping out in the 4ft range in the SW corner, smaller 1-1.5ft from Mandurah to Perth. A swell increase is incoming through the a’noon. 

This weekend and next week (Oct 21 - 28)

No great change to the f/cast this weekend. Swell increase this a’noon carries over into Sat, with 6ft sets in the SW corner, smaller 2-3ft in Mandurah and 2ft in Perth. Winds look favourable as high pressure slips below the state, with E’ly winds tending to light and variable breezes in the a’noon. 

Sunday looks pretty good too with easing 4ft leftovers in the SW corner, smaller 1-2ft in Mandurah, 1-1.5ft in Perth. Winds should be OK, a trough line just offshore means winds could be fickle, but we should see a window of E/NE to SE winds early tending SE to S through the a’noon. 

Into next week and a weak front and then leading edge of a high pressure cell brings a few days of S’ly winds, possibly tending SE-SSE early in the morning. This S’ly pattern extends from Mon to Thurs. A slight kick in SW swell from a decaying frontal system passing under the state over the weekend lifts surf from 3ft to 3-4ft late Mon into Tues in the SW corner, smaller 1-2ft in Mandurah, 1-1.5ft in Perth. Keep expectations low but there should be a few surfable waves.

Late Wed will see the next increase in swell and the system responsible, a polar low which intensifies as it passes Heard Island Sun, now looks stronger and less zonal, with a swathe of 30ft seas sending groundswell to WA.(see below) Expect surf to build now into the 4-5ft range in the SW, smaller 2-3ft in Mandurah and 2ft in Perth through late Wed, building into the 6ft range Thurs morning, smaller 3ft in Mandurah, 2-3ft in Perth. Expect more SSE to S winds.

A decaying front brings more SW-S winds on Fri next week likely extending into next weekend from that direction. Surf holds in the 4-5ft range Fri with more swell expected next weekend- generated by a another zonal system passing through Heard Island mid next week. The broad pattern of blocking high pressure in the Central Indian Ocean continues to suppress storm activity suggesting continuing small/mod SW swells and S’ly quarter winds.

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!