Western Australia Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed October 19th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small background SW swell Wed with E/SE winds ahead of sea breezes
• Small Thu with W/SW winds
• W/SW winds Fri with a moderate sized, late building SW swell, peaking Sat AM
• E tending S winds Sat, fresh NE tending N/NW then NW Sun with easing surf
• Small pulses next week under a mostly SW-S flow, biggest Thurs/Fri
• Winds possibly improving next weekend- stay tuned for updates

Recap

Fun waves at magnets in the SW corner today with size to 4ft, clean mostly under E to SE winds before sea breezes. Surf was small and weak in Mandurah and Perth with only weak 1-2ft surf on offer, suitable for beginners. 

This week and weekend (Oct 18 - 23)

No great change to the f/cast this week. Today’s conditions are expected to deteriorate through Thursday as a weak front and trough tips the SW land division, bringing onshore W’ly winds. They should be relatively light so get in early for the cleanest conditions if you want to mop up the last of todays swell, which will see some 3-4ft sets in the SW corner, smaller 1-1.5ft north of Bunbury.

Conditions remain onshore through Fri with a late kick in swell provided by a weakening polar low, which generated 20 ft seas well distant from the WA coast. That will see surf build into the 6ft+ range late Fri and extend into Sat morning at this size before easing. Expect some 2ft sets in Perth, bigger 2-3ft in Mandurah. Winds look good as a high pressure ridge briefly builds in, with an offshore morning expected before winds tend S in the a’noon.

NE winds Sun morning will be the last opportunity for clean waves for a few days so get in early for some clean, easing 4ft surf in the SW, smaller 2ft in Mandurah and 1-2ft in Perth.

A small trough of low pressure due East of Cape Leeuwin brings onshore winds Mon with easing swells.

Into next week and a decaying frontal system and high pressure due East of Perth combine to bring an onshore flow to the SW of the state. That flow extends from Tues-Fri under current modelling before the high slips under the state and brings an offshore flow next weekend. It will be SW-S so certain spots will be surfable in side-shore winds. 

There will be waves, but nothing sizey. A follow up front to Sat’s swell generator brings another small pulse Mon, easing Tues, in the 3-4ft range, smaller 2ft or less from Mandurah to Perth.

A long, zonal fetch of gales reaches peak strength as it passes Heard Island Sun/Mon (see below) and this should generate a mid-sized, mid period SW swell building in Thurs into the 4-5ft range in the Margarets region, smaller 2-3ft in Mandurah, 2ft in Perth, and easing through Fri.

The Indian Ocean storm track looks to favour these mid-sized disturbances reaching peak strength around Heard Island and decaying as they pass into the area most favourable for bigger swells for WA. So expect more small/medium surf from next weekend.

But we’ll check that out on Fri. 

See ya then.