Western Australian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri May 13th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Solid SW groundswell building late Sat, peaking Sun with dicey winds favouring protected spots
• Cut-off low brings N'ly winds Mon and new swell W Tues with tricky wind outlook
• Active storm pattern brings more large swell end of next week with a more favourable wind outlook
• More strong swell energy incoming next weekend

Recap

A front and slow moving low have brought victory at sea conditions to the SW since the last f/cast with stiff S tending W/SW winds and large swells in the 10ft+ range in the SW, grading smaller 2-3ft at Mandurah and Perth.

This weekend and next week (May 13 - 20)

No great changes to the weekend f/cast. Swell eases back through tomorrow with 6ft sets easing back to 4ft in the SW, grading smaller 2ft in Mandurah and 1-2ft in Perth. Winds will still have a W’ly bias with a chance of cleaner conditions early, more likely in Perth.

A very strong reinforcing pulse from the trailing fetch below the state sees surf rebuild into the 8-10ft range Sun, smaller 3ft in Mandurah, 2-3ft in Perth. It’ll be back to the protected spots with a SW flow although winds will drop out during the a’noon as local pressure gradients ease.

Into next week and a compact but powerful cut-off low approaches the state early next week. Early incarnations of the low aim up severe gales generating a strong W/SW pulse Tues.

Mon sees leftover SW swell in the 6ft range, easing during the day. Smaller 2-3ft in Mandurah, 2ft in Perth. The approaching low will see NE winds, tending N to NW during the day.

Surf from the cut-off low sees surf in the 6ft range, smaller 3-4ft in Mandurah and 2-3ft in Perth. Still some wriggle room in the winds as the low makes landfall or slips under the state. Expect a NW flow easing during the day and possibly tending to light and variable through the a’noon.

Smaller swells then pad out the rest of next week, as a series of mid-latitude fronts send small/med W/SW swells towards WA. 

Wed sees easing surf with the best winds of the week, generally E’ly breezes with Thurs a low point of the week.

Small pulses Fri and Sat will max out around 4ft Fri, 4-6ft Sat, with a troughy, NE flow established before another cut-off low approaches the state later next week, bringing W’ly to NW’ly winds. 

Another deep cut-off low approaches the state next week, bringing W angled swell with plenty more storm activity behind it

This low may bring another round of powerful W angled swell, although models are still divergent on this, with GFS much more bullish. Check back Mon and we’ll how that is shaping up.

More storm activity mid week near Heard Island will also send moderate SW swell towards WA arriving next weekend.

Check back Mon and we’ll update. Until then have a great weekend!