Western Australian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon May 9th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Stronger mid-period SW swell Tue with a brief period of NE tending NW winds
• Easing surf Wed with strengthening W/NW tending S/SW winds
• Moderate + sized SW swell Thu/Fri with strong S/SW winds Thu and strengthening W winds Fri
• Solid SW groundswell building late Sat, peaking Sun with dicey winds

Recap

Few waves over the weekend, easing back today to a few 4ft sets in the SW, smaller 2-3ft in Mandurah and tiny in Perth with light SE winds.

This week and next week (May 9 - 16)

Tricky winds this week with a shallow trough and approaching front through Tues offering a brief window of NE wind before winds swing NW to W/NW through the day. 

As mentioned on Fri, a series of fronts pushing up from Heard Island bring quite an active week of mid-sized surf but finding windows of cleaner conditions will be a challenge. 

Solid sets in the 5-6ft range in the SW tomorrow, smaller 3ft in Mandurah and 1-2ft in Perth will ease into Wed but conditions deteriorate further with a decayed cold front and remnant of a low bringing a stiffer W to SW flow, with only a brief possibility of lighter and more variable winds in the north for the early.

The low lingers off the South Coast and intensifies through Thurs bringing a fresh S’ly flow that may tend more SSE through the day depending on the position of the low. EC has it slightly less favourably located than GFS. 

More chunky SW swell in the 5-6ft range in the SW, generated by the fronts pushing NE of Heard Island is on offer, with smaller 3ft surf in Mandurah and 2ft in Perth. 

This swell holds into Fri morning before easing, with a window of SE to SSE winds on offer before S’lies kick in again. 

Into the weekend and the frontal activity intensifies as it passes to the south of WA (see below), sending another strong pulse of S’ly biased swell arriving later Sat in the 5-6ft range in the SW.

The core of the fetch is better aimed into the Bight but the long, trailing fetch is well positioned in the WA swell window.

Winds still look tricky with a W’ly flow from the frontal passage, possibly tending S’ly in the a’noon and opening up protected spots.

Sunday should see solid swell in the 6ft+ range, smaller 3-4ft in Mandurah, 2ft in Perth. Winds are still looking a bit dicey. An approaching cut-off low may see winds tend N but GFS has a ridge of high pressure before the cut-off low arrives suggesting a window of cleaner E’lies before winds tending NE then NW as the low approaches.

Next week and the cut-off low brings onshore winds early next week with another pulse of solid SW swell expected Tues with an onshore bias expected.

Models are suggesting a much stronger polar low reaching storm force near Heard Island mid next week suggesting a much larger swell by next weekend although winds are still looking dicey.

We’ll check on that in Wednesday forecast.