Good swell for the weekend though mostly onshore

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday January 20th)

Best Days: Keen surfers Friday morning in the South West, possibly Perth/Mandurah early Sunday, Monday morning all locations

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Building SW swell tomorrow afternoon with strengthening S/SE-S/SW winds, easing Fri with mod-fresh morning SE winds
  • Good W/SW groundswell for Sunday but with onshore winds, easing Mon with SE winds

Recap

A fun increase in inconsistent SW swell yesterday morning across the South West with 4ft sets and lighter offshore winds, tending more N'ly midday ahead of sea breezes. Perth and Mandurah were clean but tiny.

Today the swell has eased with less favourable S/SE winds.

This week and weekend (Jan 21 - 24)

Tomorrow morning is still expected to start tiny, but a new SW swell is due into the afternoon, generated by a small, tight and not overly well structured low that formed east of the Heard Island region earlier this week.

The swell should build to 4-5ft tomorrow afternoon, easing from 3-5ft Friday morning, tiny in Perth and Mandurah. Winds won't be too favourable tomorrow and best for protected spots with a fresh S/SE'ly, stronger into the afternoon and possibly sea breezy.

Friday should be a little cleaner with a moderate to fresh SE breeze ahead of afternoon sea breezes.

We've got a fun new W/SW groundswell due into the weekend but the remnants of the low linked to it looks to bring onshore winds to most locations Saturday and Sunday.

Looking at the low, and it's a mid-latitude system that will deepen north of the Heard Island region today, then generating a small fetch of W'ly gales through our western swell window from this evening through tomorrow, breaking down Friday.

A moderate sized W/SW groundswell should build late Saturday but peak Sunday and offer surf in the 6ft+ range across the South West, 2-3ft in Perth and Mandurah. Winds unfortunately look moderate onshore from the S/SW tending SW Saturday strengthening through the day, W/SW tending SW in Perth, while Mandurah may see variable winds early.

Sunday as the swell peaks is average with lingering SW winds. It's possible we may see more variable breezes in Perth and Mandurah early but we'll review this Friday.

Monday will become cleaner with an SE offshore but easing, weaker 1-2ft wave in Perth and Mandurah, 4ft across Margs.

Long term small, mid-period swells from a slow moving, prolonged by weak polar frontal progression from the south-east of South Africa, to the south-west of us.

This should produce OK waves late week across the South West magnets in the 4-5ft range, while there may be some juicer developments to follow. More on this Friday.