West Australian Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Friday 2nd October)

Best Days: Tuesday afternoon, Wednesday

Recap:

The metro stretch saw a few fun little waves in the 2ft range yesterday under a light northeasterly breeze early. The quality dropped throughout the afternoon as a northwesterly seabreeze kicked in, but remained workable for those who were happy to compromise.

The South West was offering 4-6ft surf throughout the day, but winds quickly become diecy swinging around to the north soon after sunrise. By the afternoon, conditions were pretty ordinary with plenty of bumps on top.

The surf has built strongly from 5-6ft across the South West this afternoon to a solid 8-10ft this afternoon. Unfortunately there aren’t a whole heap of options as a fresh north/northwesterly breeze impacts the coast. Further north however, winds are much lighter. Perth and Mandurah are offering fun, clean 2ft peaks, a great way to start the long weekend.

Large and wind affected at Margaret River

This weekend (Saturday 26th - Sunday 27th):

Moving into the start of the weekend, the surf will ease slightly off the back of today’s large pulse. Plenty of trailing energy will maintain surf in the 8-10ft range in the early hours of Saturday, gradually fading back to the 8ft+ range in the afternoon across the South West. Perth and Mandurah will hold in the 2-3ft range (the surf is continuing to build this afternoon from the 2ft afternoon report).

A second broad and elongated frontal progression will move east of the Heard Island region on Saturday steering a west/southwesterly fetch with a small core fetch of 50-55kts. The broader system will do a lot of the work, generally in the 40-50kt range and will work on an active sea-state to provide another solid kick due late Sunday into Monday.

After fading to the 6-8ft range on Sunday morning, the afternoon should see a late kick to the 8ft+ range, with a few larger sets thrown in as the longer period energy fills in across the South West.

Unfortunately, there is no good news on the wind front (excuse the pun). Persistent and gusty onshore winds are likely to dominate along the coast throughout the weekend, particularly across the South West.

Perth and Mandurah should see a period of light onshore winds in the early morning of Saturday, but moderate your expectations accordingly.

Next week (Monday 5thth – Friday 9th):

Monday will see the bulk of the size however, with the South West offering solid 10-12ft surf, while Perth and Mandurah can expect peaks in the 3ft range.

Monday is not really worth considering. Winds are likely to lash the coast with the passage of a front. Finding a decent wave will be near impossible, so flag it and find something else to do.

The long wave trough which is responsible for all this energy looks to keep on giving.

A broad southwesterly captured fetch will become established throughout Monday which looks well sligned for the South West. The main fetch don’t look to be as strong as the previous systems, but it’s captured motion and good alignment will keep the surf in the 10ft range throughout Tuesday.

Mercifully, a ridge looks to be building over the WA coast by this stage which will allow winds to prevail from the south early, despite remaining gusty. By the late morning/mid-afternoon, breezes should have eased and tended more southwesterly, especially for the metro beaches leading to increasing options. There should be a brief window of opportunity which is worth keeping in mind before a southerly breeze strengthens again later.

Playing devil’s advocate, there will probably be a fair amount of scarring and residual energy in the water, however it’s looking like the next best chance for a decent wave of a decent size.

Wednesday is also looking like a day to consider. Yes, the swell will be on the downward trend, easing from 6ft+ in the morning to around the 4ft range in the afternoon, but moderate/fresh easterly winds are likely to dominate over all coasts leading to clean, workable conditions.

It’s a shame that the peak of the swell doesn’t coincide with the favourable winds, but at least we can have good confidence of a clean wave.

The swell window looks fairly sleepy thereafter with only occasional subtle pulses filling in.

Enjoy your weekend.