West Australian Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Wednesday 30th September)

Best Days: Thursday morning and Friday morning for Metro beaches.

Recap: 

Unfortunately we’ve had to endure a really dormant couple of days in the surf department. The South West dropped to the 1-2ft range yesterday giving Perth and Mandurah a run for their money. The Metro stretch was virtually unsurfable with just 0.5 metre peaks on offer. Conditions were clean under light offshore breezes early, but soon deteriorated as a northwesterly breeze increased labelling it a lay day (as if it wasn’t already).

We saw a very small increase in size this afternoon to around the 3ft mark for the South West, but a northwesterly breeze persisted all day creating a fair few bumps. Perth and Mandurah increased to the 1ft mark, under a light afternoon seabreeze.

This week (Thursday 1st - Friday 2nd):

The swell will progressively build throughout the end of the week with a series of swell fronts arriving across all coasts. An active node of the long wave trough has been working over the Indian Ocean steering a series of frontal progressions east of Heard Island over the past few days.

Earlier in the week we saw 40-50kt core winds observed west of Heard Island as the broader system was more defined. As expected, the broader system has weekend and lot of the definition has been lost in a mess of overlapping period fronts (long period swell generated well west of Heard Island early in the week has traveled fast and caught up with shorter range swells generated mid week).

Despite all this, we can expect the surf to build to around 4-6ft by Thursday afternoon across the South West, while Perth and Mandurah should gain 1-2ft. Due to the system reaching relatively high latitudes, the swell generated will have a large westerly component allowing Perth and Mandurah to pick up a touch more size than usual.

The surf will continue to build strongly on Friday to the 8ft+ range by dark, with the a few 10ft sets thrown in the mix on dark. Perth and Mandurah should build to the 3ft range.

Unfortunately the wind scenario has remained largely the same since Monday’s notes. The South West is likely to be plagued by gusty northwesterly breezes each day. Breezes will be at their lightest in the early morning, but still making conditions pretty ordinary.

Perth and Mandurah have the potential to see light northeasterly breezes at first light, soon tending northerly and northwesterly by mid-morning. Friday will see a similar set up, with a brief window of workable winds during the early session.

This weekend (Saturday 3rd - Sunday 4th):

Southwesterly trailing fetches will maintain an element of energy slowing an easing trend across the weekend. Saturday will ease throughout the day to the 8ft range, further on Sunday to the 6ft+ range across the South West. By Sunday, the metro stretch should be in the 2ft range, before a building again early next week.

Westerly component breezes will persist across all coasts over the weekend. Although winds look to ease on Saturday afternoon for Perth and Mandurah, conditions are likely to be wind affected and uninviting virtually all day, every day with very few options for a clean wave.

Next week (Monday 5th onward):

A broad fetch of southwesterly severe gales will move in a captured motion with good alignment to the South West on Saturday. These winds will be working on an active sea-state aiding the efficiency of swell generation. Throw a bit of pre-frontal energy into the mix and we are looking at a strong pulse to the 10ft range for the South West on Monday, with 12ft sets on dark. Tuesday will still be solid as the swell looks to peak overnight. Dawn should still be offering 12ft sets, easing throughout the day.

Perth and Mandurah will rise again into the 3ft+ range, however there is no good news in terms of wind.

At this stage, the South West is likely to be lashed by strong/gale force westerly breezes with the passage of a front on Monday. Breezes should ease on Tuesday, swinging around to the south/southeast by the late afternoon. Fingers crossed the weather gods will allow winds to swing further on Tuesday afternoon allowing for the protected spots to start firing. More details on Friday.