Victorian Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday November 6th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun waves Thursday with light winds a small/mod swell
• Powerful groundswell building Saturday, peaking late or early Sunday then easing
• Ideal winds west of Melbourne Saturday, all coasts Sunday
• More surf Monday but with potential SE winds (no major strength)
• Another strong swell later next week

Recap

Easing surf on Tuesday offered inconsistent 3ft surf west of Melbourne and anywhere between 4-6ft east of Melbourne, with northerly winds favouring the open beaches for the best waves. Size then eased overnight, and an expected pulse of reinforcing swell has only just materialised at the Cape Sorell buoy, so we’ve been left with easing surf from 2ft to 1ft west of Melbourne, and 3-4ft down to 2-3ft east of Melbourne. Conditions were clean at the open beaches very early with NE tending N’ly winds but it’s now becoming strong as a W’ly change sweeps across the region. A late pulse is possible though quality will be an issue under these winds.

Early Wednesday at the open beaches

This week (Nov 7 - 8)

The outlook for Thursday has improved a little. 

Even though the swell expected to arrived today is running 8-10 hours late (sourced from a polar low below Heard Island over the weekend), there’s no reason to discount its size potential - peak swell periods at Cape Sorell look good (though, these are just the forerunners), and with today’s change clearing to the east, winds should become light, allowing most beaches to offer clean conditions and thus fun waves. 

West of Melbourne, sets will be very inconsistent, up to a slow 2-3ft across the exposed reefs but smaller elsewhere, with easing size into the afternoon. East of Melbourne should see bigger waves in the 3-5ft range, equally inconsistent, and with some early surface wobble thanks to overnight onshores.  

Preferences would be for an early surf west of Melbourne (for the most size), and late surf east of Melbourne (for the best conditions). 

Friday has another small mid-period reinforcing swell from a small front tracking through the Bight today. It won’t generate much size but should maintain inconsistent 2ft+ waves west of Melbourne, 3-4ft to the east. 

However, strengthening NW tending W/NW winds at dawn will swing W’ly by mid-late morning and then strong W/SW through the afternoon, as a vigorous front crosses the coast. So conditions won't be great but early morning could offer small waves along the Surf Coast.

We will see a late increase in local windswell however the bulk energy associated with this front won’t arrive until Saturday. So given the afternoon’s gusty winds that’ll only favour sheltered spots, there may not be quite enough size until very late. 

This weekend (Nov 9 - 10)

The weekend is looking great, with quality waves both days - for the Surf Coast at least.

Friday’s front will clear quickly to the east overnight but a secondary front crossing Tasmanian longitudes during the day will maintain a westerly flow across all coasts, NW through the morning tending SW into the afternoon. 

Friday’s front will have displayed a large, slow moving fetch behind it for a few days prior (see below) and that will have generated a strong swell that’s expected to build from 3-5ft to 4-6ft along the Surf Coast throughout the day (wouldn’t be surprised for the odd bigger 6-8ft set at the swell magnet reefs late afternoon).

The East Coast will see bigger surf around 6-8ft throughout the day, with a few bigger waves on dark. However winds will only favour protected spots, of which there should be enough size for small waves throughout Western Port.

Sunday will see light variable winds develop over most regions as a weak high pressure system drifts over the state, and surf size should maintain early 5-6ft+ sets west of Melbourne (upper end of this size range at the swell magnets, smaller elsewhere), with wave heights easing slowly through the day. East of Melbourne is looking strong with 6-8ft+ sets and quality options across the protected spots.

As an aside, ‘light and variable’ means ‘from any direction’, which could potentially be onshore. But regardless of wind direction, Sunday is not expected to display any strength in the breeze until mid-late afternoon when sea breezes may start to show.

Next week (Nov 11 onwards)

Further polar activity related to the tail end of this frontal sequence will continue to produce strong though easing swells into Monday, however S/SE winds will start to develop around this time as a high pressure system moves in from the west. No major strength is expected but it’s worth highlighting this risk early on.

Otherwise there should be more than enough size for the region with 3-4ft+ waves west of Melbourne and 4-6ft surf east of Melbourne. 

The long term outlook has also had an improvement since Monday’s notes were written.

We’ll see easing size through Tuesday and Wednesday however another strong Southern Ocean low is now expected to move through our swell window around the same time, setting up a strong swell for Thursday or Friday. 

I’ll have more on that in Friday’s update.